Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.
Without Harvey, Jon Niese looks to be the Opening Day Starter this season, barring a crazy strong Spring by Colon or Wheeler. While the excitement of the Mets pitching staff lies with Harvey, Wheeler and Syndegaard, the long term success also lies with Niese, especially he becomes the elder member of the staff in 2016 (barring a major trade or free agent acquisition). Lets take a look at the projections:
2013: 24 G, 24 GS, 143.0 IP, 48 BB, 105 K, 8-8, 3.71 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
ESPN: 30 G, 30 GS, 180.0 IP, 55 BB, 142 K, 11 W, 3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
MLB: 185.0 IP, 11-10, 3.99 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Steamer: 29 G, 29 GS, 173.0 IP, 11-11, 3.89 ERA
Oliver: 28 G, 28 GS, 167.0 IP, 11-8 3.61 ERA
PECOTA: 29 G, 29 GS, 165.3 IP, 8.6-13.7, 46 BB, 140 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Average: 29 G, 29 GS, 174.0 IP, 10.5-10.6, 50.5 BB, 141 K, 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
I’m surprised how much of a drop in numbers the computers are expecting for Niese. It was also odd seeing how they were consistent in some areas and not on others, like all of them projecting 11 wins, except PECOTA who is really far back with 8.6. I guess this is why we play the games.