Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.
Today we finish up the three part miniseries in this series to look at the fifth rotation spot. Mejia is competing against Dice-K and Lannan for the fifth spot. Mejia is a more exciting player and has a high ceiling. right now it looks like the Mets want Mejia to have that job but if he wins it, Lannan and Dice-K may opt out of their deal, thus cause break the depth the Mets have. Lets take a look at the projections:
2013: 5 G, 5 GS, 27.1 IP, 4 BB, 27 K, 1-2, 2.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
ESPN: 23 G, 20 GS, 114.0 IP, 39 BB, 71 K, 7 W, 3.79 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
MLB: 105.0 IP, 5-5, 37 BB, 90 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Steamer: 35 G, 5 GS, 4-3, 59.0 IP, 3.57 ERA
Oliver: 19 G, 13 GS, 4-4, 72.0 IP, 4.11 ERA
PECOTA: 23 G, 23 GS, 122.0 IP, 6-11.3, 46 BB, 90 K, 4.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Average: 17 G, 15 GS, 94.4 IP, 5.2-5.8, 40.6 BB, 83.6 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
The computer models are harsh on Mejia, but his small sample of games at the end of the year last year was amazing. The question is can he get back to that, or how far back to normal will he go. The numbers the model show are what the brain knows to probably be true, but the heart yearns for that small sample size in 2013.