In Part 2 of our trip around the team we will dive into the right side of the infield. I realize that we are going through the strengths of the team, so of course things look better right now, and statistically things really do look better. Over the next few days we’ll be able to see if offensively if the 2013 Mets will be better than 2012 or at the very least, won’t be awful.
Last year Ike Davis hit .227, mainly due to that awful start, but recovered to hit 32 homers, 26 doubles while scoring 66 times and stealing no bases (nothing wrong with that).
Last year PECOTA said that he would hit .268 with 20 homers, 26 doubles, 73 runs and 2 stolen bases. PECOTA couldn’t predict Davis’ awful start with the batting average (thus runs as well) and had doubles right on the mark, but really missed the mark power.
This year PECOTA says that he will hit .249 with 26 homers and 27 doubles while scoring 74 times with 2 stolen bases. MLB.com has Davis hitting .269 with 66 runs and 29 homers and 1 stolen base.
Last year Daniel Murphy hit .291 with 40 doubles, 6 homers and 10 stolen bases while scoring 62 times and posting a WAR of 1.2.
Last year PECOTA said that he would hit .288 with 11 homers, 36 doubles, scoring 72 times while stealing 7 bases. PECOTA nearly got his average, overestimated his strong power, underestimated his inside the park power.
This year PECOTA says that he will hit .280 with 35 doubles and 11 homers while scoring 69 times and stealing 8 bases. MLB.com has Murphy hitting .296 with 65 runs, 7 homers and 8 stolen bases. I agree more with the power numbers on MLB.com, however I would like to believe the PECOTA numbers.
Taking Wright and Tejada with Davis and Murphy, here is our running scorecard so far:
2012: 60 homers, 272 runs, 133 doubles, 29 SB’s
2013 PECOTA: 64 homers, 292 runs, 123 doubles, 33 SB’s
2013 MLB: 60 homers, 282 runs, 31 SB’s