Maybe its because I spent the better part of the off season lowering my expectations, but the PECOTA spreadsheets came out recently and I’m not disappointed entirely with what they say for the Mets. In fact, some of what they say is a lot better than what I thought.
In addition, the pick up’s in the bullpen help the team’s weakest area (after the Outfield). I underestimated how much time this article would take to write, so every day this week we will take a look at a different area. Today it’s the left side of the infield.
Last year, David Wright hit .306 with 21 homers, 15 SB’s, and 41 2B’s.
The 2012 PECOTA stats had him hitting .290 with 20 homers, 19 SB’s and 34 2B’s. So PECOTA over estimated his speed last year, but underestimated his average and doubles. They pretty much nailed his power though. What about 2013?
In 2013 PECOTA stats have him hittimg .278 with 22 homers with 17 SB’s and 34 2B’s. PECOTA also has him scoring 85 times (he scored 91 times last year). MLB.com agrees with stealing 17 bases and hitting 22 homers but believes he is going to hit more consistently with a .296 batting average. So the good news is David Wright is projected to be David Wright again next year.
Last year, Ruben Tejada hit .289 while scoring 53 times, hitting 26 doubles, 1 homer, and stealing 4 bases.
The 2012 PECOTA stats had Tejada hitting .257 while scoring 56 times, hitting 23 doubles, 3 homers and 7 stolen bases. In quick review PECOTA really undersold his batting average but got the runs and doubles pretty close.
In 2013 PECOTA says that Tejada will hit .260 with 64 runs while hitting 27 doubles while hitting 5 homers and 6 stolen bases. PECOTA feels that Tejada had blip with the average but is still counting on a bit of a power burst. MLB.com is a bit nicer. They feel that Tejada will hit .280 with 66 runs, 5 stolen bases and 2 homers.
The Running Scorecard:
During every part of this series, the area below will be updated to compare the offenses of the 2012 Mets and the projections for 2013. So far, David Wright and Ruben Tejada:
2012 Total: 22 homers, 144 runs, 67 doubles, 19 SB’s
2013 PECOTA: 27 homers, 149 runs, 61 doubles, 23 SB’s
2013 MLB.com: 24 homers, 151 runs, 22 SB’s