2012 Mets Preview: Not As Bad As You Think

I’m not going to lose the few shreds of credibility I have and say that the Mets will be in the playoffs this year. Honestly I don’t think it will happen, I’m not that optimistic. The Mets could make the playoffs, but literally everything needs to go right, or Wright (haha, one pun per article). Wright needs to have a fantastic season, Davis needs to be an All-Star, Duda has to be a surprise to the league, Murphy needs to hit and field, Bay needs to actually hit, Torres will need to be effective and healthy, Santana needs to be Santana of old, Pelfrey needs to shape up, Dickey has to repeat and Niese and Gee need to mature. All of these things CAN happen, but the¬†probability¬†of them happening at the same time is very slim.

However, I don’t think the Mets will be as bad as the media is making them out to be, because it is really hard to be as bad as the media is making them out to be. It is almost chic to say the Mets will win under 70 games. That’s really difficult!

In 2009 the Mets won exactly 70 games. The last Mets team to win under 70 games was in 2003 when the Mets won 66 games.

The question then becomes, are the Mets as bad as the 2003 Mets?

Just as a reminder, here is the roster for the 2003 Mets:

  • Vance Wilson
  • Jason Phillips
  • Roberto Alomar
  • Jose Reyes
  • Ty Wigginton
  • Cliff Floyd
  • Jeff Duncan
  • Roger Cedeno
  • Joe McEwig
  • Mike Piazza
  • Steve Traschel
  • Tom Glavine
  • Jae Seo
  • Al Leiter
  • Aaron Heilman
  • Armando Benitez
  • David Weathers
  • Mike Stanton

Look, the 2012 Mets are not great, but the offense is much better than the 2003 bunch and the pitching in 2012 will probably be a notch better. At the end of the day, the talent that is on the 2012 Mets projects them to be in the 76 win range, where if injuries pull down the team, they will probably win 71 games, and everything goes slightly better than expected, they could possibly hit 81 games. In other words, we are looking at either a cellar, or 4th place finish. We are going to struggle, but the Mets will not be as bad as they are being projected to be.

Sleeper of the Year: Lucas Duda. (Although calling him a sleeper doesn’t even feel right)

Struggle of the Year: Frank Francisco. This injury to his foot or knee or whatever seems like it could resonate with disorder throughout the whole pen.

Come Back of the Year: Johan Santana or Ike Davis.

MVP of the Team: David Wright. I think he returns to form this year. Strong second half of last year points to a positive progression

Rookie of the Year: I think this one depends on injuries. If Torres goes down, I think Captain Kirk could be in line for this. Most likely this goes to Matt Harvey.

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