213 Miles From Shea

As part of their 2024 bullpen and depth chart make-over, the Mets signed Chad Smith to a minor league deal back in December. Chad Smith was drafted twice, first in 2015 by Cleveland and then in 2016 by Miami. When Cleveland drafted Smith he played for Wallace State Community College then he transferred to the University of Mississippi. Waiting the extra year and transferring schools took him from a 23rd round pick to the 11th round.

In 2020 the Marlins traded to the Rockies. Smith then got traded again after the 2022 season to the Athletics. Smith would make his major league debut with the Rockies and pitch in a few games across 2022 and 2023 before signing with the Mets at the end of the season. Over 25 major league games and 31 2/3 innings Smith posted a 7.11 ERA, 1.674 WHIP, 5.26 FIP and a 63 ERA+. These numbers were echoed in the minors last season as well. Over 34 2/3 innings in Las Vegas he posted an 8.57 ERA with a 2.077 WHIP fueled by a 10.9 H/9 and a 7.8 BB/9. Obviously not great, but his strikeout rate was 10.9 K/9. Over the last three seasons he posted double digit strikeout rates in the minor leagues.

Smith is known as a groundball pitcher and that was the bright spot in his short spurt in the majors. Between both seasons got batters to hit it on the ground 55.2% of the time. His weakness though also came in his short time in majors – opponents worked out walks 15.2% of the time. According to Baseball Savant he throws a mid-90’s fastball 56% of the time and a mid-80’s slider 42% of the time. Occasionally (3%) he will throw a high-80’s changeup.

The Mets came into 2024 clearly lacking pitching depth. Chad Smith’s minor league strikeout rates and his major league ground ball rates are intriguing. If he starts to improve his control, he could force his way into the major league roster at some point this season. This is exactly what we are going to look for this spring – groundballs, strikeouts, limited walks.

The narrative about the Mets over the last couple of seasons, by people who don’t follow the Mets, is that the farm system lacks pitching prospects in the upper levels. The Mets actually have several arms at the upper levels of the minors that could be breaking through as soon as this year. This crew includes Dominic Hamel, Mike Vasil, Blake Tidwell and the focus of today’s article, Christian Scott.

Christian Scott is the first pitcher in that group that is starting to buck the trend of Mets pitching prospects being ignored. He landed as the #99 prospect on ESPN’s top-100 list a few weeks ago and #88 for Baseball Prospectus.

The Mets drafted Scott in 2021 out of Florida where he was mostly used as a reliever and have used him as starter and reliever over his time in the minor leagues. Scott had a solid introduction in 2022 between St. Lucie and Brooklyn where he posted a 4.45 ERA over 18 games, nine starts, with a 58 2/3 innings. In 2022 he had a solid K/9 at 11.8 but gave up a lot of hits (9.4 H/9) leading to a 1.415 WHIP.

Then last year happened, which is why he has seemingly shot out of no where. Last season the Mets fully converted Scott into a starting pitcher. Scott played over three levels last year, spending most of his time in Binghamton where he made 12 starts. Over his 19 total starts he logged 87 2/3 innings with a 2.57 ERA and a 0.856 WHIP. He kept his strikeouts constant (11.0 K/9) while slashing his hits and walks around (hits down to 6.5 per nine innings, walks dropped from 3.4 to 1.2 BB/9). That’s definitely going to turn heads.

MLB Pipeline notes that he has a mid-90’s fastball, a low-80’s slider and a changeup. They note that he learned his slider from watching videos of Max Scherzer pitch.

Scott has clearly grown while in the Mets system, his next challenge is endurance. Because he was used mostly as a reliever, he only tossed about fifty innings in 2019 and then again in 2021. He almost got to 60 innings in his first season with the Mets where he was split between a starter and a reliever. Last year he almost got to 90 innings. If Scott comes out of spring training demolishing batters in Syracuse, he’s going to force the Mets to consider calling him up. In that scenario, do the Mets cap his innings?

This spring we are looking for two things with Christian Scott. First, once he gets a few games under his belt, do his spring strikeout/hit/walk numbers resemble 2023 or 2022? Second, how is he using all of his pitches? Are they all effective?

Scott rocketed up the Mets system last year, here’s hoping that rocket continues to rise in 2024!

Yacksel Ríos broke into the majors at 24-years old with the Phillies. Since 2017 he has spent time in the majors with the Phillies, Pirates, Mariners, Red Sox and Oakland. Over his career he’s been good in the minors but struggled in the majors. As we know the Mets went into this season needing a lot of pitching depth from the majors all the way through the minors, so the Mets signed him January on minor league deal.

A key sign that Ríos hasn’t figured it out yet in the majors is how he has ended up in so many different organizations. In addition to the teams listed earlier, he has also been a member of the Tampa Bay Rays, White Sox and Atlanta Braves organizations. Ríos has never been traded. He’s either been selected off waivers by different teams, has his contract purchased, or gets released and signs with a different team.

Last season Ríos barely saw any time at the major league level, allowing seven runs over 1 2/3 innings spread across three games. During that time he allowed three hits and six walks. My gut says the reason the Mets signed Ríos though is because of a stretch he had as a member of the Red Sox in 2021. Over 24 1/3 innings (20 games) he had a 3.70 ERA (1.110 WHIP and a 4.90 FIP), by far his best stretch in the majors. In 2021, Baseball Savant had his fastball averaged at 97.1 mph and at the 94th percentile in the majors.

The other reason the Mets signed Ríos is his minor league numbers. In the Braves system last year he had a 2.49 ERA of 25 1/3 innings while keeping his walks down to 2.9 BB/9 (5.1 in the majors). In the winter league before last year he had a 0.65 ERA over 27 2/3 innings. The potential is there!

Ríos has fastball that sits in the upper-90’s that in 2021 he tossed 61% of the time. His slider (tossed 25% of the time) averages in the upper-80’s, but is really spread out between the low-80’s to the low-90’s. He mixes in a mid-80’s changeup.

This spring we are going to look for Ríos leaning into his strength (striking players out) while limited his weakness (walking players). If he can do that effectively throughout March, he’ll start to see his stock rise throughout the Mets system.

David Stearns has remade the Mets roster since joining at the start of the off-season, especially the bullpen. The Mets bullpen was a disaster last season and had a lot of players who had similar arms. Stearns remade the pen by signing a diversity of throwing styles and a high number of players on a combination of major league and minor league deals. Cam Robinson falls into the latter category.

Cam Robinson was signed by the Mets in mid-December after spending his career with the Brewers organization – clearly, he’s one of the pitchers that David Stearns believes in. MLB Trade Rumors wrote a good, quick profile of Robinson after he signed. He has a low-mid 90’s fastball, a curveball with spin and a slider. Over his career he has posted a strong K/9 rate at 10.7 over six seasons but control has been a problem (5.7 BB/9).

Robinson struggled in Rookie ball between 2017-2019 posting a 7.81 ERA over 83 innings. He was walking 6.4 batters per nine innings and had his worst K/9 rate at 9.9. After the pandemic though he was a different pitcher. In 2021 he had a 3.08 ERA over 49 2/3 innings mostly between different A leagues. Then in 2022 He had a 2.49 ERA going advanced A all the way AAA baseball, pitching a total of 65 innings. The big change for Robinson in 2021 and 2022 was he kept the ball in the park. He gave up exactly one homer each season leading to a 0.2 HR/9 and 0.1 HR/9 respectively.

That stopped last year. Hitters had six homers off Robinson and he also saw his walks sky rocket from 4.2 BB/9 in 2022 to 6.9, a career high, in 2023. His strikeouts fell from 11.6 to 10.3 K/9. He is still getting batters to miss his pitches, but batters are getting more patient, getting on base more (H/9 also jumped from 6.2 to 10.3) and driving more power against Robinson.

Cam Robinson was drafted by the Brewers out of high school. The other pitchers we covered from the Mets system so far have pitched three seasons in the minor leagues and are the same age or older than Cam Robinson who turned 24 back in September. If he can return to his 2021/2022 self, the Mets will be elated. Also because of his age, he’s on the short list to fill in for the bullpen during those stretches of the year when the bullpen gets worn down.

This spring we are looking for Robinson to return to his 2021/2022 season. This means his strikeouts are up, his hits and walks are down. If hitters are swinging and missing, he’s going to rise up the the depth chart.

For a third straight year, Eric Orze gets an invite to spring training.

Orze was one of six players the Mets selected in the 2020 draft. Their first pick, Pete Crow-Armstrong, was traded for Javier Baez. J.T. Ginn was traded for Chris Bassitt. Iasiah Green was part of the package for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. Matthew Dyer was traded for Rich Hill. Anthony Walters was released.

This all happened before last season. So, for a second straight year Eric Orze is the last player in the Mets organization from the 2020 draft.

Orze was listed as the Mets #17 prospect by MLB Pipeline for the 2022 season. They projected that he would make the majors sometime during the 2022 season. In 2021 he pitched across three levels of minor league ball, including 10 games in Syracuse posted a 3.08 ERA over 49 2/3 innings with a 1.047 WHIP.

The results on the field were not good in 2022. Over 50 1/3 innings he had a 4.83 ERA with a 1.152 WHIP. Hitters figured out how to homer off of him. In 2021 he had a 0.9 HR/9 rate. In 2022 that increased to 2.0. His BB/9 and K/9 remained unchanged between the two seasons (BB/9 2.5, K/9 went from 12.1 to 12.3).

He pitched in a career high amount of games last year (39) and posted a 5.31 ERA, 1.525 WHIP over 61 innings. His K/9 rate still remained unchanged (12.0) but his BB/9 sky rocketed to 6.0. On the positive side, he addressed his homer problem and returned to a 0.9 HR/9.

Eric Orze in 2021 went from making his pro-debut to Syracuse in one season. He’s spent the last two years stuck in neutral. Colby Morris did a great profile on Orze at the end of last season. In his profile he talks about how Orze changed the frequency that he used certain pitches throughout the season last year.

Due to Orze’s age and when he was drafted, there is a high likelihood that we see him at some point this year with the major league team. This spring I’m going to be looking for three things. First, is his strikeout rate around 12 K/9, as it has been the last three seasons. Second, can he return to his 2021 and 2022 BB/9 rate. Finally, can he keep the ball in the park. He’s done all three of these things before at the same time. If he can do this throughout March, he’ll find himself climbing up the depth chart.

Death. Taxes. The Mets needing left-handed pitching. Three guarantees in life.

Over the last several season the Mets consistently find themselves with limited left-handed options. On the 40-man roster right now the Mets have four bullpen options that are lefties: Jake Diekman, Joey Lucchesi, Brooks Raley and Josh Walker. First, this underscores how important the Jake Diekman signing is for the Mets. It also opens up opportunities for lefties in Mets camp to impress and push themselves up the depth chart. Enter prospect Nate Lavender.

Nate Lavender was selected in the 14th round in the 2021 draft by the New York Mets out of the University of Illinois. At the end of last season he still wasn’t listed on Mets top 30 prospect lists despite a fairly impressive three seasons with the Mets. Over 72 games, 108 2/3 innings, he had a 2.32 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and a 13.7 K/9.

He split his time between Binghamton and Syracuse last season. In Binghamton he was 1.4 years younger than the average player and over 10 1/3 innings he posted a sparkling 1.74 ERA and 0.774 WHIP earning a promotion. He then pitched 44 innings in Syracuse with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.295 WHIP. His K/9 numbers in Syracuse matched his minor league career average at 13.7 K/9 and his walk numbers were just a tick worse at 4.7. What was concerning in Syracuse was the amount of homers he allowed. His career average has been 0.7 HR/9 and in Syracuse it was 1.4.

Mets Minors wrote this in-depth piece on Lavender after the Mets drafted him in 2021. Even a couple of years ago his strikeout numbers despite his low-90’s fastball were being noted.

This spring we’ll be looking to see if Lavender continues to miss bats and get strikeouts. The worry right now, as shown through his walk and homer numbers, is will hitters start to wait for a pitch they can hit, rather than being fooled. The depth chart is Lavender’s major advantage right now. One or two injuries shatter the Mets LHP depth. If Lavender has a strong spring and can pitch himself into the 40-man roster at some point this season, he’ll also have options, an appeal feature to a stretched-thin Mets team. Given the amount of time he spent in Syracuse and his age right now (24), there’s a good chance we’ll see Lavender with the major league club at some point this season.

Three of the more exciting pitching prospects in the Mets system have already been invited to camp this spring as non-roster participants: Christian Scott, Mike Vasil and Dominic Hamel.

Dominic Hamel made noise in his senior year of college after he set a Dallas Baptist record with 136 strikeouts. The Mets drafted him in the 3rd round back in 2021. His Mets career took off in 2022 where he pitched in 14 games (63 1/3 innings) for St. Lucie where he had a 3.84 ERA and 1.216 WHIP. He was one year older than the average player in the Florida State League. This led to a promotion to Brooklyn where he dominated over 11 starts (55 2/3 innings), posting a 2.59 ERA and 1.078 WHIP earning the Mets 2022 Organization Pitcher of the Year award.

He spent the entirety of last season with the Rumble Ponies, tossing 124 innings with a 3.85 ERA and 1.266 WHIP. Despite facing better hitters last season, his K/9 rate improved going from 11.0 K/9 across both levels in 2022 to 11.6 last season (his career best was his senior year in college where reached 13.4 K/9). More importantly, Hamel improved on his control last year going from a 4.1 BB/9 down to a 3.6 BB/9.

The next logical step for Hamel is Syracuse and depending on how this season goes for the Mets, he has a non-zero chance of making the rotation (obviously based on his performance). You could make an argument that Hamel’s age could force him to get promoted if needed to this year. He’s currently 24 and will turn 25 during spring training. The other prospect pitchers the Mets invited to camp this year are in the same boat. Mike Vasil is 23 and will also celebrate a birthday during spring training. Christian Scott, who has been rising through the Mets rankings this past year, is 24 and will turn 25 in June.

MLB Pipeline had Hamel listed as the #16 prospect in the Mets system at the end of last season (their 2024 listings were not available yet. Mets Minors has him listed as #14 (published at the end of 2023). MLB Pipeline identifies Hamel as a pitcher who loves RPM. His slider rotates 2,800-3,000 times per minute. Will this fool major league hitters though? That’s ultimately the question we’ll want answered this spring.

Hamel, like Vasil and Scott are on the cusp of making big league squad and we’ll get a good luck at all three pitchers at the start of spring. Hamel doesn’t have the most overpowering stuff but can put a notable spin on the ball. I’m going to be looking for two things from Hamel this spring (and start of the minor league season). First, can he continue to strikeout more players while decreasing his walks? Second, can he get major leaguers to swing and miss / generate weak contact against his slider and curveball? We’ll find out soon!

The Mets have invited 11 pitchers to spring training on non-roster deals. Pitchers invited run the gambit from top prospects in the system, to veterans looking to break camp with a new team. Last season the Mets invited ten pitchers to camp and eight of them ended up seeing time with the big league club.

Kyle Crick is in the veteran bucket of NRI pitchers. He made his major league debut back in 2017 and has played with the Giants, Pirates and White Sox before not pitching with any clubs last season.

Crick was drafted in the first round back in 2011. After breaking into the majors with the Giants in 2017 was then traded to the Pirates. The Giants sent Crick with Bryan Reynolds for Andrew McCutchen. A star-studded trade for sure.

His best season was back in 2018 where he got into 64 games throwing 60 1/3 innings with a 2.39 ERA, 3.14 FIP and a 1.127 WHIP. According to Baseball Savant, he was in the 83rd percentile for xERA, 81st for xBA, 89th in fastball velocity, and 89th for average exit velocity. Further he was in the 97th percentile for Barrel% and 100 for Hard-Hit%. Just all around really good stats.

Back in 2022 he pitched 15 2/3 innings with a 4.02 ERA, 3.18 FIP, and a 1.340 WHIP. He did not pitch enough in 2022 to qualify for most Baseball Savant metrics. His fastball velocity though dropped down to the 24th percentile. He threw 57% sliders around 80 mph (league average is a tick below 85) and 43% fastballs, averaging 92 mph.

The bullpen was an area of weakness for the Mets last season and they have spent a lot of time this off-season bringing in a ton of different pitchers on a variety of deals with a diversity of throwing styles. We’ll have a better idea of Kyle Crick fits in the depth chart in just a few short weeks!

For many seasons now, we preview one non-roster invitee to Mets spring training per day, leading up to the regular season. NRI’s generally fall into one of two buckets. Players are either prospects on the verge of breaking the 40-man roster and the time in major league camp is crucial for their development. This is also the best time for the major league coaches to get their first good look of the players of tomorrow. In the second bucket veteran players trying to break camp with a new team. The Mets invited about 20 players to spring training last year outside of their 40-man roster. 2023 was a chaotic, volatile year for the Mets and a good chunk of the players the Mets invited to camp eventually saw time at the major league level. A total of 12 of the 20 players the Mets invited to camp last year eventually played with the Mets including five of ten position players.

Nick Meyer: Meyer was drafted by the Mets in 2018 and over the years he played in 323 games hitting a career .220/.309/.297. Last season he played only in Syracuse and hit .217/.309/.309, which is pretty close to his career line. The Mets have quite the logjam of backup catchers for the 40-man roster, so after obtaining free agency this winter, Meyer signed with the Rays. Best of luck Nick!

Kevin Parada: In what will be an unfortunate trend on this list, 2023 was a tough year for some of the Mets top prospects that had been in the system for a few years. In 2022 he hit .275/.455/.425 and started to rise in off-season prospect lists. He had a tough 2023 where he hit .248/.324/.428 over 457 PA’s. That continued into the fall where he he hit .186/.240/.371 over 75 PA’s. Parada will be back in Mets camp as a NRI in 2024 as he looks to bounce back.

Michael Pérez: Michael was a veteran depth signing for the Mets last off-season and ended up seeing three games in Queens where he went 4-8 with a double and a strikeout. He signed with the Orioles this winter.

Hayden Senger: Senger hit .188/.307/.295 in Binghamton in 2023. So far over his five seasons in the Mets system hitting .236/.328/.359. Senger will be competing for his depth position again this spring as an NRI.

Jonathan Araúz: Jonathan got slightly more than a cup of coffee last season with the Mets. Over 66 PA’s he hit .136/.205/.288. This off-season he signed with the Dodgers. You know those Dodgers, getting everyone on the market.

José Peraza: The Mets signed Peraza as veteran depth last year and he never had an official plate appearance with the Mets. He mostly played in Syracuse hitting .258/.324/.359 over 177 PA’s. He is still a free agent (as of writing).

Abraham Almonte: Almonte went 1-15, 2B, BB, 8 K’s in his short time with the Mets last season. He is still a free agent (as of writing).

Tim Locastro: Locastro seemed destined to break camp with the Mets from early on in spring training last season. Between Locastro and Nimmo the Mets were looking to be an on-base percentage machine. Over 67 PA’s with the Mets Locastro hit .232/.338/.393 including six stolen bases and was hit by six pitches.

Alex Ramírez: Alex was another prospect who saw his stock tumble over the season. In 2022 he hit .281/.346/.836 over 552 PA’s. Last season he hit .221/.310/.317 over 521 PA’s. The Mets added Alex to the 40-man roster this season, so we’ll see a lot of him in spring training this month.

DJ Stewart: Finally we end with the best NRI signing from 2023. DJ Stewart had 11 HR”s over 185 PA’s last season, hitting .244/.333/.506. Between Mauricio’s injury and the Mets not signing a DH (as of writing) Stewart has an inside lane to more playing time this season. Did the Mets catch lightning in a bottle here?

As of now the Mets have 11 position players coming to camp in 2024. Who will be this year’s DJ Stewart? We are only a few weeks away from finding out!

For many seasons now, we preview one non-roster invitee to Mets spring training per day, leading up to the regular season. NRI’s generally fall into one of two buckets. Players are either prospects on the verge of breaking the 40-man roster and the time in major league camp is crucial for their development. This is also the best time for the major league coaches to get their first good look of the players of tomorrow. In the second bucket veteran players trying to break camp with a new team. The Mets invited about 20 players to spring training last year outside of their 40-man roster. 2023 was a chaotic, volatile year for the Mets and a good chunk of the players the Mets invited to camp eventually saw time at the major league level. Of the ten pitchers the Mets brought to camp last spring, seven of them saw at least three games with the Mets at some point during the season. Let’s see where the 2023 class is now!

Connor Gray: Gray was with the Diamondback organization before the pandemic and then ended up bouncing around between different independent league and minor league systems. He tore his UCL at Mets camp last year and tommy john. Tapinto Greater Olean has been following his story through his recovery process.

Grant Hartwig: MLB Pipeline in 2022 predicted that Hartwig would make his major league debut in 2023, and they were correct! Hartwig was undrafted in 2021 and signed with the Mets. Last season he pitched in 28 games in Queens tossing 35 1/3 innings with a 4.84 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.387 WHIP. He’s still on the 40-man roster. He will be fighting for a bullpen spot again this spring, but with the advantage of already being on the roster.

Tommy Hunter: One of my favorite players to put on a Mets uniform. Hunter’s return to the Mets wasn’t great as he posted a 6.85 ERA, 5.75 FIP, 1.394 WHIP over 14 games and 23 2/3 innings last season. The Mets released him last June and he retired last month.

TJ McFarland: The Mets brought on the 10-year veteran last year as bullpen depth, but barely used him in the majors as he pitched in three games totaling 1 2/3 innings allowing two runs, one earned from four hits. Between the Mets system and later the Orioles system, he had a 2.30 ERA over 44 games (62 2/3 innings). The Dodgers have signed him on a minor league deal for the 2024 season.

Zach Muckenhirn: Muckenhirn is currently a free agent. He made his major league debut with the Mets and pitched six innings over three games allowing four earned runs. He was traded to the Mariners for Flexen and Gott, neither of whom are with the Mets currently. Muckenhirn had a lot of success in the Mets farm system posting a 0.88 ERA last season but with the Mariners he struggled, posting a 6.11 ERA before being released.

Eric Orze: In 2021 Orze posted a 3.08 ERA in the Mets system over 34 games throughout three different levels. He then struggled in 2022, posting a 6.08 ERA over 32 games. Last year wasn’t that much better as he posted a 5.67 ERA, 1.525 WHIP over 39 games and 61 innings. The Mets have invited him back to spring training as an NRI again in 2024.

Denyi Reyes: Reyes made his major league debut with the Orioles in 2022 and when he signed with the Mets he seemed like an interesting depth signing. The Mets rotation health thrusted Reyes into Mets major league roster and he made three starts, nine games total, with a 7.78 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.678 WHIP over 19 2/3 innings. Last month he signed a contract with the Samsun Lions in the KBO.

Josh Walker: Another pitcher who is still on the Mets 40-man after being an NRI last spring. Walker was drafted by the Mets in 2017 and last season tossed 10 innings over 14 games allowing 11 runs, nine earned (5.26 FIP, 1.800 WHIP). He’ll be competing for a bullpen spot again this spring.

William Woods: Woods struggled in the Mets organization last year with a 6.84 ERA over 38 games (52 2/3 innings) between Syracuse and Binghamton. Woods is still on the Syracuse roster, but was not offered an NRI for the 2024 season (as of 2/3/24).

Jimmy Yacabonis: Jimmy saw seven games and 13 2/3 innings with the Mets last season posting a 6.59 ERA, 5.08 FIP and a 1.463 WHIP. Back in August he elected free agency.

The Mets really needed to dive deep last season, pulling tons of players out of the minors to fill in injury and trade gaps. This season the organization has brought in (at least) 16 pitchers on a combination of major league and minor league deals. We are only a few weeks away from seeing the 2024 class compares to 2023!