213 Miles From Shea

Adbert Alzolay is not a signing for this year. The former Chicago Cubs closer had Tommy John surgery in August of 2024 and almost certainly will miss all of 2025. In early January the Mets signed him to a two-year minor league deal. Alzolay gets to rehab with the Mets and the Mets get an interesting bullpen arm for the 2026 season.

Alzolay was signed by the Cubs as an amateur free agent in 2012 and made his major league debut in 2019. The Cubs were still trying to use him as a starter as recently as 2021 where he pitched in 29 games, 21 starts tossing 125 1/3 innings with a 4.58 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 1.162 WHIP and a 92 ERA+. He then missed most of 2022 with a shoulder and lat injury.

Alzolay had a breakout 2023. Over 64 innings, spread over 58 games, he had a 2.67 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.016 WHIP and a 160 ERA+. The Cubs moved him to the back of the bullpen and he seized the opportunity saving 22 games. Alzolay’s Baseball Savant page was filled with red. His fastball, averaging at 95.3 mph, was in the 73rd percentile, xERA at 3.61 was in the 74th percentile. His 5.1 BB% was in the 92nd percentile. Hitters were barreling him only 6% of the time (81st percentile). Just a phenomenal season. Pitch tracking credited him for throwing six different pitches in 2023:

• Slider (avg 87.5 mph) 45.1%
• Four Seamer (avg 95.3 mph) 20.7%
• Sinker (avg 95.3 mph) 19.3%
• Cutter (avg 91.1 mph) 10%
• Sweeper (avg 82.6 mph) 4.4%
• Changeup (avg 87.8 mph) 0.5%

Things were not going well for Alzolay in 2024 before his injury. Over 17 1/3 innings, eh had allowed 13 runs, nine earned, from 19 hits and six walks. It’s a small sample size, but he had a 1.442 WHIP, ballooned from his career mark of 1.157. His FIP was also sky high at 7.38 (career 4.30).

Rehab schedules from Tommy John surgery have become highly regimented over the last few years. Plenty of players have bounced back from the surgery well. That being said, it’s always a mystery as to what a player looks like after the surgery. Maybe we will see him in some rehab games in late 2025. Next year we’ll look to see what the Mets do with his arsenal. We have seen the Mets take pitchers with large arsenals over the last year and highlight their most successful pitches to remake their profile on the field. We wish Alzolay a speedy recovery and we’re looking forward to his 2026 season!

Ty Adcock should sound familiar because the Mets actually acquired him during the 2024 season. Adcock was claimed off waivers from the Tigers in May and then released by the Mets at the trade deadline. The Mets then resigned him a few weeks later. Adcock was drafted by the Mariners in 2019, missed the 2020 season due to the pandemic. He then had Tommy John in April 2021. Not the most consistent start to his professional baseball career.

Adcock got a cup of coffee with the major league team in 2024 allowing seven runs over 4 1/3 innings spread over three games. He had a slightly longer stint in 2023 pitching 15 2/3 innings over 12 games with a 3.45 ERA, 5.17 FIP, 0.702 WHIP and a 117 ERA+. Adcock was more successful last season with the Syracuse squad, posting a 3.93 ERA over 18 1/3 innings spread over 17 games.

When the Mets lost Edwin Díaz in 2023, they lost a lot of the flamethrowing capability in the bullpen. One common feature of may pitchers the Mets are bringing in on NRI deals – their ability to sling it. Ty Adcock has a mid-to-high fastball (96.6 average in 2024 and 2023) with a mid-to-high 80’s slider and low-90’s cutter. While the fastball has some zip on it, teams are jumping all over it. He gave up three homers off of 33 fastballs in 2024 and gave up four homers off 116 fastballs in 2023. Overall he has given up eight homers over 20 major league innings.

According to The Athletic, Ty Adcock has started to add a split-change to his arsenal. It’s clear that that Adcock needs something to generate misses at the plate. Across all levels last year Adcock had a 11.6 H/9 over 28 2/3 innings. In 2023 he had a career best 3.9 H/9.

Here’s what to watch for for Ty Adcock:

• How does the split-change look? How often is he using it? In 2024 he tossed the fastball 38.4%, slider 33.7% and cutter 27.9%. In 2023 he only tossed a slider and a four seamer.
• Can Adcock keep the ball in the park? This was absolutely his kryptonite at the major league level in 2024 that wasn’t see in the minors last year.

The Mets finally won the hypothetical R.A. Dickey deal this off-season when they signed Anthony Gose to a minor league contract with a non-roster invitation to spring training.

Back in 2012 the Mets trade R.A. Dickey to the Blue Jays for a package built around Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud. There was a time when Anthony Gose, then an outfield prospect, was rumored to be in the package. Gose has gone through a lot since those days.

It’s important to remember how highly touted Gose was as an outfield prospect over a decade ago. The Phillies first traded him to the Astros (with J.A. Happ and Jonathan Villar) for Roy Oswalt in the 2010 trade deadline. The Astros then immediately traded him to the Blue Jays for Brett Wallace.

Gose would make his Major League debut in 2012, playing 56 games for the Blue Jays hitting .223/.303/.319 with a 71 OPS+. He would then play portions of five seasons from 2012 to 2016 with the Jays and the Tigers. His best offensive year was 2015 where he played in 140 games hitting .254/.321/.367 (90 OPS+). After his 2016 season he made the switch from outfield to pitcher.

In 2021 Gose made his major debut as a pitcher, at age 30, with the Guardians for 6 2/3 innings over six games. The following year he got into 22 games over 21 innings with the Guardians with a 4.71 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 1.381 WHIP and an 81 ERA+. Later in 2022 he would have Tommy John surgery, which knocked him out for all of 2023. Gose saw three innings in the majors last year allowing five runs over 4 1/3 innings. He had a solid season in AAA ball, posting a 3.22 ERA, 1.366 WHIP over 44 2/3 innings.

According to Baseball Savant, Gose only tossed two different pitches in his three major league innings in 2024. He had a mid-90’s four seamer and an upper 80’s slider. In 2022 he tossed exactly one changeup (88 mph).

The Mets are hoping to get a version of the 2022 Anthony Gose. His skills may not have translated on the mound, but there were some interesting under-the-hood things happening. His fastball then was at 97 mph, good for the 92nd percentile. He didn’t pitch enough to fully get into the 2022 Baseball Savant percentile rankings, but his Whiff% (33.5) and strikeout rate (30.4) would have been around 90th percentile. On the other hand, his xERA (5.04) would have been near the bottom the league and he was getting rocked with a 92.9 average exit velocity.

Last year the Mets showed that they would switch things up in the bullpen when things weren’t working and cycled frequently through pitchers. Anthony Gose represents a low-risk, high-reward signing. Unless he absolutely dominates in Spring, or something goes horribly wrong with the Mets, he’s starting the year in the minors. If he accepts a minor league assignment, we will see him at some point this year with the Major League club. Can Anthony Gose seize opportunity when it’s his time? Can the Mets pitching lab unlock the potential from his raw skills and turn it into on-field results?

Here’s what to look for this spring with Gose:

• Velocity – is he touching the upper 90’s again?
• Missing bats – is he producing whiff’s?
• Effectiveness – when players make contact, can fielders actually field it? Are the balls so hard hit that bases are getting too busy?
• Frequency of outings – Is Gose still getting outings with the main team by mid-March? Do his results demand a roster spot battle?

The Mets will try to force a game seven tonight as they play their second elimination game in a row against the Dodgers. The Mets offense jumped out early against the Dodgers on Friday afternoon thanks to a three-run home run from Pete Alonso. Even though the Mets led by large margins throughout the game, the Dodgers kept pushing back, seemingly always one big swing away from being right back in the game. This has been a series defined by momentum. Can the Mets jump out early tonight and put the pressure on the Dodgers?

Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets in this critical game seven. Over 32 starts in the regular season he has pitched 181 2/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.084 WHIP and a 114 ERA+. In three postseason starts he has allowed six runs, five earned, over 17 innings (2.65 ERA, 4.11 FIP). This includes a start against the Dodgers in game two of this series where he allowed three runs, two earned, over five innings including a homer while striking out seven. The Dodgers have the following career numbers against Manaea:

• Austin Barnes 2-7, BB, K
• Mookie Betts 10-34, 2 2B 2 3B, 3 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
• Tommy Edman 2-3, HR
• Freddie Freeman 5-20, HR, BB, 4 K
• Enrique Kiké Hernández 1-12, BB, 2 K
• Teoscar Hernández 3-16, HR, 2 BB, 4 K
• Kevin Kiermaier 1-7, 4 K
• Max Muncy 2-8, 2 HR, BB, 2 K
• Shohei Ohtani 2-10, 2 BB, 4 K
• Andy Pages 1-4, 2B, 3 K
• Will Smith 9-20, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Chris Taylor 4-17, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 7 K

The Dodgers are rolling with a bullpen game for the second time in this series, and they are starting with a high leverage reliever. Michael Kopech was a major tradeline acquisition for the Dodgers from the White Sox. Overall this season he pitched 67 2/3 innings with a 3.46 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.153 WHIP and a 117 ERA+. He was significantly better has a Dodger, putting up a 1.13 ERA, 2.54 FIP, 0.792 WHIP and a 348 ERA+ over 24 innings. He’s pitched 4 1/3 innings over five games this post season, allowing a hit, two walks and nothing else while striking out six. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 0-3
• Francisco Alvarez 0-2, K
• Jose Iglesias 0-1
• Francisco Lindor 0-2, 2 BB, K
• Starling Marte 0-2
• J.D. Martinez 0-3
• Jeff McNeil 0-1, BB
• Brandon Nimmo 0-3, BB, 2 K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-1
• Mark Vientos 0-1
• Jesse Winker 0-2, 3 BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Mets Big Bats. Today is about tone setting. On Friday the Mets were joking before the game, confident and they played that way. Francisco Lindor went 2-for-4 at the plate with a walk, a triple and two runs scored. Alonso went 2-for-3 at the plate with a walk, four runs scored and a massive three-run home run. When the best hitters do well, the team does well!
2. The rest of the Mets lineup. The Mets success on Friday wasn’t just from their top hitters, they had a lot of support down the lineup. Starling Marte was just fantastic going 4-for-5 on the day with three RBI’s and three doubles. In 50 PA’s for the Mets this postseason he is slashing .310/.380/.405. Jesse Winker is coming off of a 2-for-3 day with three runs scored. Francisco Alvarez started hitting again and is coming off of a 3-for-4 day. The Mets had the momentum on Friday, and got to hold onto that on the long flight to LA.
3. Limiting walks. The weakness for the Mets this series has been walks. They walked five Dodgers on Friday which is the least amount of any game this series. In the first four games of the series the Mets walked a combined 31 Dodgers. It’s just too much! No free passes today!

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets play an elimination game this afternoon in Queens. It has been a couple of weeks since the Mets have played an elimination game where they were the team that could be eliminated, but the end of September through the wild card series was filled with metaphorical elimination days.

When this team has been pushed all the way to the brink, they have pushed back. Do they have a little more magic for one more game?

David Peterson gets the start this afternoon! Over 21 games in the regular season he pitched 121 innings with a 2.90 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.289 WHIP and a 136 ERA+. He ended the regular season with an amazing seven inning out against the Brewers holding them to only one run. Peterson allowed no runs and four hits in his first three relief appearances this post season over 6 1/3 innings. Peterson’s first start of the season was against the Dodgers where he allowed three runs, two earned, scattering seven hits over five innings. In his one relief outing against the Dodgers this series he allowed three runs, two earned, over 2 1/3 innings. The Dodgers have the following career numbers against Peterson:

• Austin Barnes 0-1, BB, K
• Mookie Betts 2-9, 2B, K
• Tommy Edman 1-1
• Freddie Freeman 6-19, 2 HR, BB, 7 K
• Enrique Kiké Hernández 4-7, 2B, 2 K
• Teoscar Hernández 2-5, HR
• Gavin Lux 0-2, BB
• Max Muncy 2-5, HR, K
• Shohei Ohtani 3-8, K
• Andy Pages 1-2
• Will Smith 2-3, 2B, HR, BB
• Chris Taylor 0-5, 3 K

The Mets bats will look to exorcise their demons this afternoon against Jack Flaherty. Flaherty had a fantastic start against the Mets in game one, holding them to two hits and two walks and nothing else over seven innings. In his postseason start before that against the Padres he allowed four runs over 5 1/3 innings. In his four starts between 9/14 and 10/6 he allowed 14 runs over 19 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Jack Flaherty:

• Pete Alonso 2-5, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-2, K
• Jose Iglesias 1-7, K
• Francisco Lindor 0-6, 2 BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 4-25, HR, BB, 8 K
• J.D. Martinez 1-2, K
• Jeff McNeil 1-3, K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-3
• Tyrone Taylor 0-6, 2 K
• Mark Vientos 0-3, 2 K
• Jesse Winker 9-24, 3 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 3 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. How do the Mets come out of the gate? The last series in September against the Brewers the Mets came out tight and took some of the worst at bats we saw this season. Quick at bats, trying to do too much and the Brewers just ran all over the Mets. At the end of the series the Mets came out like themselves, loose, fun, etc and smashed the Brewers. Then they did the same thing against the Braves. They have every reason to come out tight this afternoon, against a pitcher that shut them down earlier in the week. How the Mets come out in the first inning will tell us a lot about how the afternoon goes.
2. No free passes! The Mets allowed 22 walks over the first three games of the series (7, 8 and then 7). The key for Thursday’s game was to limit the walks! Instead the Mets walked nine Dodgers. It’s difficult to win when you walk opposing hitters so often. The Mets need to keep the base paths clear to give themselves a chance.
3. Mets big hitters need to come through. The Mets scored only two runs on Thursday from 10 hits. Several times throughout the game the Mets would get a rally going only to do nothing with it. At the end of the night they were 0-for-10 with RISP stranding 12 batters. Mark Vientos provided a huge solo shot at the start of the game. Today the Mets need someone to step up in a big moment to score some runs.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to bounce back tonight and even the series at two games a piece as they take on the Dodgers in game four of the NLCS. Wednesday night was a tough night of the Mets just got tougher as the night went on. The Dodgers scored early off of a couple of walks and soft hits. Then the Mets squandered a bases loaded with one out situation. Things more or less stayed the same (Mets pitchers working out of jams, Mets hitters leaving runners on base) through the sixth inning when the Dodgers started to blow the game open on hard hits and home runs.

The Mets lost game one 9-0 and then responded back immediately the next day. They have been a resilient team all season. The Mets are going to need another moment of resilience tonight!

Jose Quintana pitched 170 1/3 innings over the regular season with a 3.75 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 1.250 WHIP and a 105 ERA+. He’s allowed one unearned run, no earned runs over 11 innings across two games in the postseason striking out 11. Quintana had a solid start against the Dodgers at the end of May, allowing three runs over six innings scattering eight hits and no walks. The Dodgers have the following career numbers against him:

• Austin Barnes 2-12, 4 BB, K
• Mookie Betts 8-28, 2 2B, HR, 2 BB, 6 K
• Tommy Edman 2-8, 3B, K
• Freddie Freeman 5-16, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 3 K
• Enrique Kiké Hernández 4-16, 2B, HR, BB, 3 K
• Teoscar Hernández 0-3, K
• Kevin Kiermaier 7-16, 2 2B, 2 K
• Gavin Lux 2-7, 2B, K
• Max Muncy 2-9, HR, 4 BB, 4 K
• Andy Pages 2-3, 2B
• Will Smith 2-9, HR, 2 K
• Chris Taylor 8-24, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K

The Mets made a huge push this offseason to sigh Yoshinobu Yamamoto who ultimately signed with the Dodgers. He was supposed to be the ace to Kodai Senga in the rotation. A lot of the Mets roster as constructed in April was a result of Yamamoto’s decision. Now he starts against the Mets in the NLCS.

Over 18 starts in the regular season Yamamoto pitched 90 innings with a 3.00 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 1.111 WHIP and a 129 ERA+. He’s had two very different outings in the postseason. In game one of the NLDS he allowed five runs over three innings. In his second start he allowed two hits and no runs. Yamamoto started against the Mets this season back in April allowing four runs, three earned over six innings. He had a 4.50 season ERA at that point and then pitched with a 2.51 ERA the rest of the way. The Mets have the following career numbers against Yamamoto:

• Pete Alonso 1-3, K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-1
• Harrison Bader 3-3, 2B
• Francisco Lindor 0-3, K
• Starling Marte 1-3, 2B, K
• Jeff McNeil 0-3, K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-2, BB, 2 K
• Jesse Winker 0-3, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Walks. The Mets have been walking way too many batters throughout the NLCS. They walked seven batters in the first game, eight in the next followed by seven on Wednesday night. There are a lot of dangerous hitters in the Dodgers lineup and they could be working around some hitters, but the problem is you create opportunities for other players to get a massive hit.
2. Leaving runners on. The Mets left eight batters on base Wednesday night including the bases loaded in the second inning right after the Dodgers scored two runs. Part of the problem was strikeouts. The Mets recorded 13 strikeouts including five batters with multiple strikeouts. We’ve seen the Mets lineup go cold and then get hot again. It’s happened in this series! Look for the Mets to try flip the narrative tonight.
3. Lineup and pinch hitting decisions for Mendoza. Mendoza has a slew of decisions to weigh tonight, no matter who is in the lineup. J.D. Martinez got a start on Wednesday night and went 0-for-2 with two walks and two strikeouts while Jesse Winker was on the bench. Brandon Nimmo is clearly in pain playing baseball right now (1-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout). Francisco Alvarez went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and the Mets have a day game tomorrow. Which buttons does Mendoza push tonight and when?

Let’s Go Mets!

It’s a brand new NLCS, all tied up at one game a piece. Francisco Lindor ended the Dodgers 33 inning postseason scoreless streak with a leadoff home run on Monday. The Dodgers responded by intentionally walking Lindor in his next at bat to face Mark Vientos with the bases loaded. Vientos made them pay for that mistake with a grand slam and the Mets were able to hang on for a 7-3 win.

Citi Field now hosts it’s first NLCS game since 2015. Mets fans are ready to welcome the Mets home. It’s a five game series now with the Mets having home field advantage!

Luis Severino made 31 starts in the regular season, tossing 182 innings with a 3.91 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 1.242 WHIP and a 101 ERA+. He’s been solid in the postseason over his two starts, allowing exactly three earned runs over six innings. Both of his starts in the postseason have been on the road, tonight is his first home start. In 97 1/3 regular season innings at home he had a 2.96 ERA (compared to a 5.00 road ERA over 84 2/3 innings). The Dodgers have the following career numbers against Severino:

• Mookie Betts 11-34, 4 2B, HR, 6 BB, 7 K
• Tommy Edman 1-2
• Freddie Freeman 0-5, BB
• Enrique Kiké Hernández 1-7, 2B, 2 K
• Teoscar Hernández 2-11, 2B, HR, 6 K
• Kevin Kiermaier 3-28, 2 BB, 13 K
• Max Muncy 1-2, HR, K
• Shohei Ohtani 3-6, 2B, HR, 2 BB, K
• Will Smith 1-3

Walker Buehler is coming off of his third consecutive injury mired shortened season. Buehler pitched about a third of the 2022 season before having Tommy John surgery. He missed all of 2023 recovering and then missed about two months of 2024 recovering from a hip injury. Over 16 starts, 75 1/3 innings in 2024 he has a 5.38 ERA, 5.54 FIP, 1.553 WHIP and a 72 ERA+. He was starting to put things together in September where he had a 4.44 ERA over 26 1/3 innings. He is coming off of a rough start against the Padres in the NLDS where he allowed six runs over five innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Buehler:

• Pete Alonso 5-14, 4 HR, K
• Harrison Bader 1-6, BB, K
• Jose Iglesias 4-10, 4 K
• Francisco Lindor 1-2, HR
• Starling Marte 2-6, 2 2B, BB, 2 K
• J.D. Martinez 0-3, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 1-9, BB, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 2-10, 3B, 2 BB, K
• Tyrone Taylor 1-2, 2B
• Luis Torrens 0-3, K
• Jesse Winker 4-15, 2 HR, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Mark Vientos. Vientos had his first rough game of the postseason on Sunday, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. He responded with another two-hit game on Monday going 2-for-5 with a grand slam. He has multiple hits in six of the nine postseason games he’s played in with three home runs, 11 RBI’s and is slashing .378/.410/.676. He will not be doubted for the rest of this series.
2. Lindor’s power is back. This postseason Lindor has hit three doubles and two home runs. Four of those five extra-base hits have come in his last four games, and that includes a game where he went 0-for-3 with a walk (NLCS game one). The Mets are 4-0 when Lindor has an extra-base hit (2-3 and when he doesn’t).
3. Pete Alonso. Alonso has had a quiet start to NLCS hitting 1-for-7 with two walks (and a stolen base, whaaat?). From the end of wild card round to the third game of the NLDS, Alonso had three home runs over four games (including the biggest home run of his life). He has five hits against Walker Buehler lifetime, and four of them have been homeruns. Tonight would be a great time for the Polar Bear to flash some power.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to bounce back tonight against the Dodgers before the series heads back to New York. Jack Flaherty gave the Dodgers exactly what they were looking for yesterday – a deep performance keeping the Mets off of the scoreboard. This sets up a bullpen game for the Dodgers, a strategy they used effectively against the Padres in the NLDS.

The Mets on the other hand need to right the ship. The offense looked bleak last night and three critical arms for the Mets allowed all of the runs (Senga, Peterson, Buttó) over 5 1/3 innings. There’s a lot of series left and a commanding victory today can make everything better back in New York.

Over 32 starts in the regular season Sean Manaea had a 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.084 WHIP and a 114 ERA+. In his two post season starts he has allowed three runs over 12 innings and is coming off of a sparkling seven inning outing against the Phillies where he allowed only one run. Manaea has the following career numbers against the Dodgers:

• Austin Barnes 2-7, BB, K
• Mookie Betts 10-32, 2 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
• Tommy Edman 1-1, HR
• Freddie Freeman 5-17, HR, BB, 4 K
• Enrique Kiké Hernández 1-11, 2 K
• Teoscar Hernández 3-15, HR, 3 K
• Kevin Kiermaier 1-7, 4 K
• Max Muncy 1-6, HR, BB, 2 K
• Shohei Ohtani 2-7, 2 BB, 2 K
• Andy Pages 1-2, 2B, K
• Will Smith 9-18, 2B, BB, K
• Chris Taylor 4-17, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 7 K

Ryan Brasier will start things off for the Dodgers this afternoon. Over 29 games in the regular season he pitched 28 innings with a 3.54 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 0.964 WHIP and a 110 ERA+. He has pitched in three games so far in the postseason. He first 1 2/3 innings in game one of the NLDS, allowing no runs and a hit. In his second outing he allowed two two runs on two hits, including a home run, in 2/3 of an inning. He was used as the opener in the fourth game of the series and didn’t allow anything over 1 1/3 innings. All of this tells us that if Brasier is effective in the first inning, the Dodgers will run him out there for another and pull him when the matchup makes sense to do so. Also if he’s not effective, they won’t feel obligated to having complete the inning. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 0-5, BB
• Harrison Bader 0-2, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 1-5, K
• Starling Marte 1-2, HR
• Jeff McNeil 2-4, 2B
• Brandon Nimmo 1-1, 2B
• Jesse Winker 0-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Mets love hitting bullpens. Sunday night the Mets had two hits and two walks over seven innings against Flaherty. The first reliever allowed a hit and a walk (the Mets just couldn’t do anything with it). Throughout this postseason as soon as the Mets have chased the starter out of the game, they’ve been able to create big, cascading innings with crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Today is the ultimate test of this, can the Mets make this happen in a bullpen game?
2. Stealing bases. We relearned during the last regular season series in Milwaukee that stealing on the Mets is a great way to throw them off the game. The Mets are facing one of the best base stealers in the league this series in Shohei Ohtani. Alvarez caught him on Sunday night. With a massive lead early on Sunday the Dodgers didn’t need to steal bases. What happens tonight if the game is closer? Can the Mets stop them?
3. Hitting with runners in scoring position. In the NLDS the Mets got into trouble allowing the Phillies to get multiple runners on. They were able to work out of jams and keep damage to a minimum. The Dodgers on Sunday night went 5-for-11 with RISP, leading to the lopsided score. The Mets went 0-for-3, a collective failing we’ve seen the Mets flirt with before.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets return to the diamond tonight in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers in game one of the 2024 NLCS! What a ride for the New York Mets, who are the only wild card team remaining in the postseason. To get here they had to beat the 2024 NL Central Champions and the East Champions (Brewers & Phillies). Now only the NL West Champions stand in their way to the World Series!

Kodai Senga will make his second start in the playoffs tonight. His last time out he he allowed a lead-off homerun to Kyle Schwarber and then shutdown the Phillies for two innings. He walked one and struck out three over two innings while tossing 31 pitches. It is expected that he’ll pitch closer to 50-60 pitches today with David Peterson picking up the rest of his start. The Dodgers have the following career numbers against Senga:

• Mookie Betts 3-3, HR
• Tommy Edman 1-6, K
• Freddie Freeman 0-2, BB, K
• Teoscar Hernández 1-3, 2B, K
• Max Muncy 0-2, BB, K
• Shohei Ohtani 1-1, 2B, 2 BB
• Miguel Rojas 0-2
• Will Smith 0-2, K

The Mets bats will face off of the major tradeline acquisition for the Dodgers – Jack Flaherty. Over 28 starts this season Flaherty pitched 162 innings with a 3.17 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 1.068 WHIP, and 127 ERA+. His stats were slightly worse when you look only at his Dodger starts (3.58 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.283 WHIP, 108 ERA+ over 55 1/3 innings). The Padres got to him in his last start, hitting two homers and scoring four runs over 5 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Flaherty:

• Pete Alonso 2-3, 2B, K
• Jose Iglesias 0-5, K
• Francisco Lindor 0-4, BB, K
• Starling Marte 4-22, HR, BB, 7 K
• J.D. Martinez 1-2, K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-4, 2 K
• Jesse Winker 8-21, 2 1B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 3 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Kodai Senga. The Dodgers’ strength is the relentlessness of the top of their lineup (more on that in a moment), Kodai Senga could be the antidote, keeping hitters off balance with his unique mix of pitches. In his last start he tossed 31 pitches, 13 of them of them fastballs. The vast majority of those 13 were the low-to-mid 90’s. He tossed four pitches above 95 heading towards 97. Baseball Savant sometimes struggles with his pitches, so take this next part with a grain of salt, he mixed in six forkballs, six sweepers and three sliders. How will the Dodgers fair with his mix of off-speed stuff?
2. Containing the heart of the Dodgers lineup. Shohei Ohtani had an MVP season (more on that in a moment) with a 190 OPS+ this season. Mookie Betts had a 145 OPS+. Freddie Freeman had a 143 OPS+. Even when you get through those three huge bats, you still have to get through Teoscar Hernández who had a 137 OPS+ in 2024. How does Carlos Mendoza navigate these four hitters? Senga with Peterson tonight gives him the opportunity to prevent any hitter from seeing a pitcher three times.
3. MVP Matchup. Shohei Ohtani had a historic season at the plate. Tonight he has to face his main competition for the MVP award – Francisco Lindor (138 OPS+). Lindor launched the Mets into the postseason hitting a go-ahead homerun in the first game of a doubleheader in Atlanta, that allowed the Mets to save Severino for the Brewers. A week later Francisco Lindor hit a go-ahead grand slam to send the Mets to the NLCS. There were stretches this season that Lindor carried the New York Mets. Winner of this series gets to be the regular season MVP, who says no?

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets will try to clinch a playoff for the first time ever at Citi Field this afternoon! On Tuesday the Mets took a 2-1 lead in the five game series thanks to a dominant start by Sean Manaea who shutout the Phillies over 7+ innings. Pete Alonso got the scoring going early with a solo shot. Late in the game the Mets bats built multiple small rallies on their way to a 7-2 victory. Let’s end this tonight in Queens!

Jose Quintana will start a clinching game for his second straight start. His last start was in a winner-take-all elimination game where he held the Brewers scoreless over six innings, scattering four hits and a walk while striking out five. In the regular season he tossed 170 1/3 innings with a 3.75 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 1.250 WHIP and a 105 ERA+. Quintana ended the season on a terrific run with a 0.74 ERA, 2.48 FIP over six games. This includes a start against the Phillies in Philly where Quintana held them scoreless over seven innings. The Phillies have the following career numbers against him:

• Alec Bohm 3-15, 2B, HR, 3 K
• Nick Castellanos 13-53, 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 10 K
• Bryce Harper 4-21, 2B, HR, BB, 8 K
• Austin Hays 1-1
• Branon Marsh 0-2, K
• J.T. Realmuto 4-19, HR, 3 BB, K
• Johan Rojas 5-9, 2 K
• Kyle Schwarber 7-24, 2B, HR, 7 K
• Edmundo Sosa 3-9, 2B, 3 K
• Bryson Stott 0-3, BB, K
• Garrett Stubbs 0-2
• Trea Turner 6-24, 2B, 3 K
• Weston Wilson 0-6, 2 K

Ranger Suárez has pitched 150 2/3 innings over 27 starts with a 3.46 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.201 WHIP and a 117 ERA+. He hasn’t pitched since September 27th where he allowed six runs over two innings to the Nationals. In his last six starts of the season he had a 6.49 ERA, 5.37 FIP over 26 1/3 innings, allowing five homers. This includes a start against the Mets where Suárez allowed two runs, both solo home runs, over five innings, in a game the Mets won 6-3. Over the course of the season Suárez has a 2.30 ERA over three starts against the Mets. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Luisangel Acuña 1-2, HR
• Pete Alonso 2-17, 2 2B, 8 BB, 4 K
• Francisco Alvarez 1-7, HR, 3 K
• Harrison Bader 1-7
• Jose Iglesias 6-8, 2 2B, K
• Francisco Lindor 5-16, 2B, HR, BB, K
• Starling Marte 6-19, 2B, 2 BB, K
• J.D. Martinez 2-9, 2B, BB, 3 K
• Brandon Nimmo 3-25, 3 BB, 4 K
• Tyrone Taylor 2-7, K
• Luis Torrens 1-5, BB, 2 K
• Mark Vientos 3-15, 2B, HR, 7 K
• Jesse Winker 1-5, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Pete Alonso. The postseason can completely rewrite a regular season. In Alonso’s last four games he has gone 3-for-14 with all three hits being home runs, and has walked three times. All three homers have been to the opposite field. He saved the Mets season in Milwaukee. He energized Citi Field. The Mets are just more fun with Pete Alonso is hitting his stride.
2. The Mets Approach. It was clear the Mets had a specific approach Tuesday with Aaron Nola. The Mets were aggressive, swinging at first pitch, not waiting for Nola to drop his curveball all over the place. Do they do the same with Ranger today, or do they try to get him to work a bit more and get himself in trouble. For example, Alonso only has two hits in 17 at bats, but has eight walks (.118 BA vs .400 OBP, thus showing why batting average is a terrible stat). The Mets have also shown they are not afraid of the Phillies bullpen.
3. The Phillies Approach. Zack Wheeler was fantastic against the Mets in game one. If this series goes to five games, the Mets will be facing Wheeler again in Philly. If the Phillies lose today, there is no game on Friday. Expect the Phillies to empty out their bullpen tonight, there’s no reason to keep anyone with this being an elimination game and their best pitcher waiting for game five. The Mets pass the baton approach has been effective against the Phillies going back to September and has to be weighing on the minds of the Phillies relievers.

Let’s Go Mets!