213 Miles From Shea

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Jeurys Familia:

Important Note: This article was written before a decision has been made about Familia’s future with the team.

Looking at the projections, it is clear that some programs/programers took into account that Familia will have a suspension this year (which he absolutely should: the Mets cannot sweep domestic violence under the rug).

Because of the differences in time Familia will have on the mound, the only stats that make sense to look at are ERA and WHIP. The averages his ERA rising but his WHIP dropping which odd but whatever. Cut off here is his save projections which are, respective to the list above, 40, 38, n/a, 38, 27, 30, 30, 38, 37, 21 with an average of 33.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Today is our last pitcher projected to be a starter at times this season.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Seth Lugo:

With Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo saved the team down the stretch coming and being awesome. Unlike the Gsellman, the projection programs are pretty set on exactly how many steps back Lugo will take this year if given playing time. It is good to remember though that any team would love to have a pitcher with a 4.24 ERA as their 5th starter, and really Lugo doesn’t look like the 5th start.

It is remarkable how in range all of the projections are with each other, especially with a player coming into his second season with question marks on playing times and batter exposure to his pitches.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, w are nearing the end of Mets starters this year.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Zack Wheeler:

Huge question, especially since this article was written on 2/26: what will Wheeler do this year? Does he start? Does he work out of the pen?

Wheeler hasn’t pitched since 2014, but you follow the Mets so you already know that. Wheels Up had a good year back then but it’s been a while and I’m of the mindset that anything the Mets get out of Wheeler this year is bonus. The consensus of the projection programs looks like they are looking at a player who missed the last two seasons. They are all over the place on innings pitched. They aren’t too far off on ERA and WHIP though, and those numbers would be reasonable and welcomed from a pitcher like Wheeler who missed so much time.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Robert Gsellman:

Robert Gsellman was one half of the duo of rookie starting pitchers who saved the Mets season last year (other one being Seth Lugo) as the Mets rotation of aces started to fall by way of the injury bug. He put together a fantastic rookie season.

Obviously the projections see him taking steps back this year, which makes sense, it would be absurd to think he go back and 2.42 again, that would be in the Cy Young conversation (also a 2.42 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP seems unsustainable throughout the course of a whole season). Looking at the numbers more closely, the projections are pretty split on Robert. Several think he is going to have a normal, middle of the rotation year, several think he’s going to be a star (surprise, surprise, it’s Baseball America). The projections are also quite splite on the amount of time he’ll see. No one see’s a full load with a glut of them sitting at 140-ish innings.

My gut says he makes more sense as the fifth starter than Wheeler, but we’ll see as the season goes on.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Matt Harvey:

Matt Harvey had a terrible year last year and it was pretty much the entire season. He couldn’t feel his fingers which in hindsight should have been a sign right away that something was wrong. He’s coming off of a very tough injury/surgery.

That being said, most of the projection programs like what they see in Matt. They don’t see an ace coming back on the mound, but they don’t see a back of the rotation person either. What is concerning is most projection programs see a decrease in inning totals, not getting near 30 starts which if Harvey could do, would be a tremendous milestone in his young career.

In a similar theme this week, Baseball America still projects Harvey above and beyond to have the best season compared to the other programs. These glorious projections from Baseball America probably say more about their algorithm than the Mets pitching staff.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Steven Matz:

Last year was a tough year for Matz. He came up in 2015 throwing fire, got injured, was out for a while, came back and had some solid starts in the playoffs. Last year his first start was horrific and then was great until injury ended his season, hurting his numbers in his last few starts of the season. With the exception of one provider, stats see his numbers being very similar to last year, with a few extra starts. This is interesting as it is tempering expectations.

It is worth noting that I’m down on someone right now who is projecting to post about a 3.30 ERA, which is how good the Mets rotation is. A few seasons ago I would have been completely fine with that.

Statistic Anomaly: Baseball America really is going all in with the Mets pitching corps. Yesterday they had Jacob deGrom with an ERA better than the rest and here they have Matz a full run below the average.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We continue the month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Jacob deGrom:

Jacob deGrom has been the steady pitcher for the Mets, even though he hasn’t been in the majors that long. His numbers from last year are spoiled by a series of bad starts right before he left for the season due to injury. My gut tells me it is the combination of those starts plus rising concerns coming back from the injury that kept most of his projections for this year more human (but still really good). It is slightly alarming seeing some of the more well known projection companies (Baseball Prospectus, Steamer) seeing large increases in ERA this year.

Statistic Anomalies: Baseball America is all in on deGrom having an MVP type season in terms of ERA and WHIP, just not in length.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

I thought yesterday was the last one but the Mets added a non-roster invitee! Ty Kelly!

Ty Kelly didn’t make the first round because he was, actually, on the roster. The Mets then signed some relievers and had to designate Ty Kelly for assignment.

Kelly was a non-roster invitee last season and got a called up as the injuries mounted. Last year he played in 39 major league games with 58 AB’s putting up a .241/.352/.345 line recording 14 hits, a double, a triple, and a homer.

The positives for Ty Kelly: he walked a bunch of times. 14 hits, 11 walks, pretty good! But he didn’t show a lot of power in the majors. Ty Kelly is firmly on the depth chart and that’s going tend up hurting him. Mostly he’s a corner infielder or a corner outfielder, both where the Mets just have a log jam of players.

It will be a hard road for Kelly, there are a lot of players in front of him. He’ll also get a good amount of playing time since he’s heading off to play for Israel in the WBC.

Today starts a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll start with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Noah Syndergaard:

Anomalies: NBC Rotoworld has a huge win total, HUGE. The general consensus across all publications is Syndergaard is the Mets bets pitcher, but NBC Rotoworld has Noah putting up MVP-esque numbers.

In general, the the projections have Noah at very close to his year numbers last year if not slightly better in most categories (outside of ERA). The ERA numbers seemed to be pulled upward by Steamer and Baseball Prospectus. I don’t feel comfortable calling this an anomaly due to BP’s track record with stat projections.

Syndergaard is the Mets ace of aces right now and the Mets will need him to put up a season like the one he is statistically projected here to produce.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

Our last Non-Roster Invitee preview! And it’s a power hitting outfielder in Travis Tajieron!

Travis Taijeron is a power hitting corner outfield. Here are his homer numbers from the last few seasons:

• 2013: 23
• 2014: 15
• 2015: 25
• 2016: 19

On top of that he had a decent slash line last year of .275/.372/.512. He showed off his power on his NRI last spring with the Mets.

Here’s the problem with Travis: he’s getting up there in age (he’ll be 28 this season) and the Mets have a lot of major league talent, too much major league talent that has the same strength.

If the Mets didn’t have Michael Conforto AND didn’t have Jay Bruce, then Taijeron would have an outside shot to see more playing time this year but the Mets are flushed with power hitting corner outfielders.

Ultimately, I’m looking forward to Travis putting on another good show at Spring Training and keeping his name alive if the unexpected happens. Just for fun, it’s worth looking at his 2017 ZiPS projections. If he has 469 plate appearances, ZiPS sees him hitting 17 homers but only hitting .202/.294/.393. That is of course, Taijeron’s weakness.