213 Miles From Shea

The Mets start their first road series in 2017 today as they head down 95 to Philly to meet the Phillies. Coming off the late game last night, the Mets avoided being swept and returned to .500 on the young season. Meanwhile, Philly beat the Nationals for a second straight day as their offense has been clicking. The Mets on the other hand, had a couple of solo shots last night and one rally, but it still feels like our offense is stuck in neutral.

Jacob deGrom didn’t pick up a decision in his first game of the season but he allowed only 2 hits and no runs over 6.0 innings while waking 1 and striking out 6. Jacob went 2-0 in as many starts against the Phillies last year allowing 1 ER over 15.0 innings while allowing 6 hits and striking out 13 (1 walk). The Phillies have the following numbers against Jacob:

• Herrera 3-15
• Galvis 5-14
• Kendrick 1-13
• Hernandez 2-8
• Rupp 1-6, HR
• Franco 0-6

The Mets bats will take a crack at Jerad Eickhoff who is 0-1 over 6.2 innings with 5 hits and 2 ER in his first start of the season. Last year, his first full season in the majors, he went 11-14 over 33 starts and 197.1 innings with a 3.65 ERA. Last year he went 0-2 in 4 starts against the Mets holding the Mets to 8 runs, 7 earned over 24.0 innings (2.63 ERA) while walking 7 and striking out 23. The Mets have the following numbers against Jerad:

• Granderson 2-15, 2B, HR
• Conforto 5-14, 2 2B, HR
• Cespedes 2-12, 3B
• Cabrera 4-9, 2B
• Duda 2-8, 2 2B
• Walker 1-8
• d’Arnaud 1-6, 2B
• Bruce 1-2

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets and Marlins close out their series in a Sunday night game tonight! The Mets will head to Philly for a few days tomorrow before heading to Miami to play the Marlins again starting on Thursday.

Noah Syndergaard will make his second start of the season tonight coming off of a strong first start and a blister injury that pushed him back one day. On Opening Day he pitched 6.0 scoreless innings allowing 5 hits, no walks while striking out 7 Braves. Syndergaard faced the Marlins three times last year pitching 20.0 innings allowing 18 hits and 4 runs (1.80 ERA) while walking 2 and striking out 29. The Marlins have the following numbers against Noah:

• Ozuna 3-8, HR
• Stanton 0-8, 5 K
• Yelich 2-9, 2B
• Bour 4-8, 2B
• Hechavarria 2-8
• Dietrich 3-7, 2B
• Gordon 1-6

The Mets bats will get a look at Edinson Volquez who the Mets know well from the 2015 World Series. After being with the Royals last year he signed as a free agent to the Marlins this year and had a strong outing for his Marlins debut going 5.0 innings allowing 4 hits, no runs with a walk and 6 strikeouts. He faced the Mets at the start of last year and went 6.0 innings holding the Mets to 2 hits and no runs while walking 3 and struck out 5. That was about the only positive game for him on the season as he finished going 10-11 over 34 games and a 5.37 ERA with a league leading 113 earned runs. The Mets have the following numbers against Edinson:

• Granderson 2-16, 2 HR, 5 BB, 6 K
• Bruce 8-16, 2B, HR, 4 BB
• Duda 4-14, 2B, 5 BB, 3 K
• Walker 3-19, 2B
• Cabrera 5-15, HR
• d’Arnaud 1-12
• Reyes 8-12, 2B, 3B
• Cespedes 3-12

As a team the Mets have 131 AB’s against Edinson with 35 hits and 22 walks, making a .365 OBP.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to strike back tonight against the Marlins after last night’s drubbing. Wheeler wasn’t the best in his first game back on the mound in two years but that’s ok, it is his first game back in two years. I’m not ready to panic yet. The Mets offense on the other hand fell into some of the same pitfalls from last year of getting runners on and then not doing anything with them.

On the mound is Robert Gsellman who make his first start of the season, but not his first game of the season. On Opening Day he pitched the 9th inning allowing 2 hits and striking out 1 while allowing no runs to close out the win (non-save situation). Originally scheduled to pitch tomorrow night, Syndergaard’s blister moved him to Saturday. Last season Gsellman went 4-2 over 8 games and 7 starts pitching 44.2 innings while walking 15 and striking out 42 while posting a 2.42 ERA. This will be Gsellman’s first game against the Marlins and the only Marlin who has seen him in a major league game is A.J. Ellis who is 0-2 with a strikeout.

The Mets bats will try to break out against Adam Conley who is will be making his 2017 debut. Last year he went 8-6 over 25 starts and 133.1 innings with a 3.85 ERA. He never picked up a decision in three starts but held the Mets to only 2 runs over 15.0 innings, a 1.20 ERA. The Mets have the following numbers against Conley:

• Cespedes 1-11, 2B, 6 K
• Cabrera 3-8, 2B
• Granderson 1-8
• d’Arnaud 1-8
• Flores 1-8, 2B
• Bruce 2-6, 2B
• Reyes 3-5, 2B

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets welcome the Marlins to town for the first time this year after taking two of three from the Braves. The Marlins are coming up 95 from DC where they just beat the Nationals for their first win of the season in extra innings.

The real story of this game is Zack Wheeler. Wheeler last pitched in a major league game in 2014. That year he went 11-11 over 32 games and 185.1 innings with a 3.54 ERA. In March of 2015 he required Tommy John and was slated for a May/June 2016 return. Instead Wheeler encountered multiple set backs delaying his return to tonight. In spring his ERA was high, but that’s not the important part of Spring. His fastball had life and he was hitting 97. Ultimately the debate boiled down to allowing Zack to stay down in Florida, pitch more to get his feet back under him or send him north so he wouldn’t waste innings not in games. The Mets hand was forced with the Matz injury (and later the Lugo injury) and Wheeler is here!

Wheeler was 2-0 over 5 games and 32.1 innings against the Marlins in 2014 with a 1.11 ERA, 13 BB’s and 39 K’s. The Marlins have the following numbers against Wheeler:

• Stanton 2-15, HR
• Hechavarria 2-16, 2B
• Yelich 1-13
• Ozuna 2-13, 3B
• Dietrich 1-4
• Moore 0-6
• Bour 0-1

The Mets draw Wei-Yin Chen who make his 2016 debut as he starts his second campaign with the Miami Marlins. He was 5-5 over 22 starts and 123.1 innings for the fish last year. Chen picked up a win in his only game against the Mets last year holding the Mets to 1 run and 3 hits over 7.0 innings while walking 1 and striking out 5. The Mets have the following numbers against Chen:

• Cabrera 2-19, HR
• Granderson 3-17, 2 HR, 8 K
• Cespedes 5-16, HR
• Reyes 4-12, 2B
• Rene Rivera 2-8, 2B
• Walker 1-4, 2B
• Flores 0-3

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets and Braves face off in the rubber game tonight if the ran moves out in time for the first Harvey Day of the year. Last night the Mets lost their first game of the season falling 3-1 in extra innings. The Mets received a strong start from their starter for the second straight day but also for the second straight day, the Mets couldn’t do much against the opposing starting pitcher (who yesterday was a folk hero Bartolo Colon). Robles allowed a run in the 7th to bring it to 1-1 and the Mets go lucky on a base running blunder it wasn’t 2-1. Eventually Montero would allow two runs in the top of the 12th and the bats couldn’t bring them back.

Tonight Harvey looks to right last year, although it is widely understood that Harvey may not be Harvey until late May. Last year he was 4-10 with a 4.86 ERA over 17 games and 92.2 innings before going out with a significant surgery. He was 1-2 against the Braves last year over 4 games and 22.2 innings with a 4.37 ERA and 17 K’s. The Braves have the following numbers against Harvey:

• Freeman 3-18, 3 2B
• Markakis 3-13, 2B
• Phillips 3-12, 2 2B
• Peterson 3-10, 2 2B
• Inciarte 3-9, 2B
• Suzuki 0-7
• Kemp 1-6, HR

Jamie Garcia will make his 2017 debut and his first start as a member of the Braves. Garcia has been with the Cardinals since his rookie year in 2008 before being traded in December for a prospect package including former Met prospect John Gant. Garcia was 10-13 over 32 games and 30 starts with a 4.67 ERA and a 171.2 innings of work. He was 0-2 in two games against the Mets last year allowing 9 runs, 8 earned over 9.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Jaime:

• Bruce 11-49, 2B, HR
• Reyes 6-19, 2B
• Flores 3-7, 2B, HR
• Cabrera 3-5, 2 2B
• Cespedes 0-5
• Walker 1-5, 2B
• Duda 1-2, HR

Let’s Go Mets!

The big league club opened up on Monday and today the full season minor league teams will get started!

Las Vegas will open up in El Paso.
Binghamton will open their first season as the Rumble Ponies at New Hampshire.
St. Lucie will open up at home against Palm Beach.
Columbia will also open at home against Augusta.

Good luck to all the Mets minor league players as they continue their journey to Queens!

Opening Day was fun, so let’s do it again (161 more times)! The Mets beat the Braves in the season opener on Monday 6-0 thanks to strong pitching and a huge rally in the 7th inning. The Mets were sticking to the script the first 6 innings of the game: unstoppable Syndergaard and not scoring against Teheran. Once Julio left the game though, the Mets were able to make the Braves bullpen work, putting up a 6 spot thanks to a bases clearing double by Lucas Duda.

Jacob deGrom looks to keep it going as he returns to the mound for his first official game since injury early last September. He ended the season last year 7-8 over 24 games and 148.0 innings with a 3.04 ERA. If you take the last three starts out of the year though, where he was showing signs of injury, his ERA is a 2.29. Last year he went 1-1 over 3 starts against the Braves pitching 19.2 innings with a 1.83 ERA. The Braves had the following numbers against Jacob:

• Freddie Freeman 4-19, 2B, HR, 7 K
• Jace Peterson 3-15, 2B
• Nick Markakis 6-15, HR
• Ender Inciarte 4-10, 2B
• Matt Kemp 2-11, 2B
• Julio Teheran 3-6 (I know he’s Monday’s Opening Day Starter, interesting stats are interesting)
• Brandon Phillips 0-3

Fan favorite Bartolo Colon will be making his first start as a Brave tonight. Big Sexy got a roar from the crowd Monday afternoon and should get another one tonight. He was loved by the fans, loved by his teammates and was a tremendously (good) consistent pitcher with us. Last year he was 15-8 over 34 games and 33 starts pitching 191.2 innings with a 3.43 ERA. The last time he faced the Mets was way back in 2011 where he allowed no runs over 5 hits in a win. The Mets have the following numbers against Colon:

• Asdrubal Cabrera 1-17, 2B, 5 K
• Curtis Granderson 4-13, 2 HR
• Jose Reyes 5-12
• Neil Walker 3-10, 2B, HR
• Rene Rivera 2-5, 2B, HR
• Jay Bruce 1-5, HR
• Yoenis Cespedes 2-3, 2B
• Lucas Duda 1-2

Let’s Go Mets!

Welcome Back!

The Mets and Braves start the 2017 season this afternoon after a fairly long spring training courtesy of the World Baseball Classic. And no, it’s not deja vu you’re experiencing, the Mets are running out a nearly identical roster to the 2016 club, which is fine because on paper, the 2016 club was built to win.

Most Opening Days, I write about optimism and the joy of not knowing what is going to happen, and that’s what makes baseball great. Those points still hold true but for a second straight season we approach Opening Day more mission based. Winning is an expectation. There’s a swagger and slight arrogance that comes with that feeling which I believe will make baseball this season in Queens a lot of fun to watch.

Noah Syndergaard will be starting for the Mets. Last year he went 14-9 over 31 games, 30 starts, and 183.2 innings with a 2.60 ERA as one of the Mets best pitchers. He walked 43 in that stretch and struck out 218. Surprisingly, he faced the Braves only once last year and it was a game to forget as he allowed 5 ER over 3.2 innings and 8 hits while walking 3 and striking out 5. The Braves have the following numbers on Syndergaard:

• Matt Kemp 1-11, RBI, 4 K
• Brandon Phillips 3-10, 2 K
• Nick Markakis 3-6, BB
• Jace Peterson 1-4, RBI, BB
• Freddie Freeman 3-6, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 2K
• Swanson 2-2, RBI

The Mets bats will draw the ace of the Atlanta rotation, Julio Teheran. Teheran put together a great 2013 campaign and followed it up with an All-Star year in 2014 before regressing in 2015. He came back to All-Star form last year posting a 7-10 record over 30 starts and 188.0 innings with a 3.21 ERA while walking 41, and striking out 167. The Mets were part of the reason while he an All-Star last year. He went 2-0 over 4 stargs against the Mets pitching 30.0 innings allowing only 3 runs (0.90 ERA) while walking 3 and striking out 18. Beating Julio today will start a nice narrative to the 2017 season. The Mets have the following numbers against Teheran:

• Curtis Granderson 6-26, 2B, 2 HR, 7 BB
• Lucas Duda 7-23, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB
• Travis d’Arnaud 2-20, BB, K
• Wilmer Flores 3-19, HR
• Jay Bruce 3-20, 2 HR
• Neil Walker 2-17
• Jose Reyes 2-13, 3B
• Asdrubal Cabrera 4-12, 2 2B
• Yoenis Cespedes 3-12, 5 K

Let’s Go Mets!

It took over a month but we are finally done! Here is our last stat projection, Rene Rivera.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation.

Let’s be blunt. Rene isn’t playing for his offense. He hits bombs. He doesn’t hit anything else really. He’s not expected to. His bombs are really bonus.

Rivera has great defense and is super important to the stability of the rotation. The hope is the rest of the lineup can carry more of a lift when he plays.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for David Wright:

I pulled the data for this article way back on 2/17 and way back then things were looking ok with Wright. The question was, who lead off when Wright plays? Do they find someplace else for Reyes. Then the Wright throwing issue came to light and I’m not really sure what to write here

Most projections see a significant cut in Wright playing time this year. No one is working harder to get back to the playing field than David Wright. My thoughts at this point is anything the Mets get from Wright is gravy this year. That being said, it was nice to see his projected average being 25 points higher than his actual average from last year.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data