213 Miles From Shea

Every spring at 213 we gather a whole bunch of projections for players and average them together to see what a conglomerate of baseball sources think a given player will perform over the year. It’s wholly unscientific – averaging averages and not weighting them for previous accuracy or amount of playing time they feel a player will see.

Going into last year’s off-season the Mets needed to rework their bullpen (like this year and pretty much every year in this decade). Last season, the only lefty on the 40-man roster was Daniel Zamora (who we reviewed his projections last year) since the Mets traded Jerry Blevins (and were not going to resign him) during the season. So Justin Wilson seemed like a good pick up.

But it’s the Mets and Wilson had an on/off year with injuries which impacted his projections. We previewed Wilson here last year and summarized his projections in the following table:

In 2019, Wilson put up the following stat line:

2019: 45 G, 39.0 IP, 2.54 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 1.333 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 1.3 WAR, 3.51 DRA

The concerning part of Wilson’s stat line, outside of his playing time, is the difference between his FIP and his ERA. His FIP is the only stat line significantly worse than projections, everything else is either significantly better or right around projected values. I’m not terribly concerned because his WHIP isn’t crazy.

So Wilson outperformed his projection Wilson also pitched about 20% less than originally thought, thanks to injuries. This is a positive sign for the bullpen heading into 2020. Will Wilson posting this line over an entire season save the pen? Absolutely not. But maybe with a manager who can better manage the bullpen and not over tax some players while under utilizing others, Wilson could bring some balance back.

Every spring at 213 we gather a whole bunch of projections for players and average them together to see what a conglomerate of baseball sources think a given player will perform over the year. It’s wholly unscientific – averaging averages and not weighting them for previous accuracy or amount of playing time they feel a player will see.

Going into 2019, Daniel Zamora was the only lefty in the pen. The Mets signed a few lefties (Justin Wilson on a Major League deal, Luis Avilan on a minors deal) which then moved Zamora back down a bit in the depth chart. He made his way to Citi Field by the end of April, stuck around for a month, got a cup of coffee in June and then returned when rosters expanded in September.

Back at the start of the year, we wrote this preview about Zamora and pulled the following projections together:

And in 2019, Zamora posted the following stat line:

2019: 17 G, 8.2 IP, 5.19 ERA, 4.94 FIP, 1.731 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 0.0 WAR, 7.63 DRA

So the main issue here is playing time. Some of the projection programs essentially give a base line of playing time so players can be easily compared to each others. The projections that don’t do that still saw Zamora getting a lot more action because they were probably run before the Mets signed multiple lefties for the pen. When combined with the Mets horrible bullpen management you get very little playing time and a stat line that we can’t compare too. Zamora struggled in the majors but after May he saw inconsistent to no playing time in the majors.

Normally at the end of these articles I try make a statement along the lines of the computers got this correct or they didn’t. For example, yesterday, computers missed Luis Avilan’s fall. There is no conclusion that can be made for Zamora. We’ll try again next year.

Every spring at 213 we gather a whole bunch of projections for players and average them together to see what a conglomerate of baseball sources think a given player will perform over the year. It’s wholly unscientific – averaging averages and not weighting them for previous accuracy or amount of playing time they feel a player will see.

The Mets some how got Luis Avilan on a minor league deal and we, as other places, noted that he had a good chance of making the major league club due to our lack of lefties. He pitched about the first six weeks of the year, got injured, came back around July and finished out the season.

Back in March we previewed his projections here, with the summary below:

Avilan in 2019 posted the following stat line:

45 G, 32.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 1.469 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 0.1 WAR, 5.10 DRA

Initially some projections were a little low on playing time for Avilan because of roster situation, in end, it turned out to be his injury that prevented a full season of bullpen work. He performed much worse than anyone projected failing to meet any projections across any platform with the exception of WAR but that might be due more to how WAR is calculated than anything else.

Luis Avilan is a free agent right now and is probably looking to join a team the same way he did last year, except unlike last year, his performance doesn’t merit a major league contract right now.

Earlier this week the Mets signed Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello. BVW made news by stating that Marcus Stroman was a replacement for Zack Wheeler (despite Wheeler and Stroman being in the same rotation for about half a season) and that Porcello/Wacha give the Mets so much starting pitching depth that it’s a boon to the bullpen by locking Lugo/Gsellman out of the rotation (which was an even odder statement to make, but whatever).

To get a sense of what this all means, we are going to look at the 2019 Mets DRA, DRA- and WARP from Baseball Prospectus and then insert in the Mets new signings.

2019 Rotation:

• Jacob deGrom: 2.27 DRA, 46.5 DRA-, 7.8 WARP
• Noah Syndergaard: 3.40 DRA, 69.8 DRA-, 5.1 WARP
• Zack Wheeler: 3.80 DRA, 77.9 DRA-, 4.2 WARP
• Steven Matz: 4.39 DRA, 90.2 DRA-, 2.4 WARP
• Marcus Stroman: 3.79 DRA, 77.8 DRA-, 4.0 WARP
• Jason Vargas: 5.25 DRA, 107.8 DRA-, 0.8 WARP
• Walker Lockett: 4.96 DRA, 101.9 DRA-, 0.2 WARP (contains relief data)

2020 Additions in 2019:

• Rick Porcello: 6.06 DRA, 124.4 DRA-, -0.5 WARP
• Michael Wacha: 6.25 DRA, 128.1 DRA-, -0.7 WARP

2018 Data for New Additions:

• Rick Porcello: 4.02 DRA, 89.9 DRA-, 2.8 WARP
• Michael Wacha: 3.99 DRA, 89.0 DRA-, 1.3 WARP

Wacha tossed 84.1 innings in 2018, 126.2 innings in 2019 as he’s battled shoulder issues. The shoulder issues for Wacha should be a major asterisk when thinking – well in 2018 he put up better numbers than Matz did in 2019 (which is problematic in a different way – DRA looks at context for ABs, it’s not clear to me how much can be asserted as a claim of better or worst across the seasons, I included the 2018 data to show if you want to look at DRA that way, both Porcello and Wacha took major steps back lat year).

Here’s the main point – Stroman is essentially a replacement for Wheeler. But that statement is only true if Stroman was acquired this off-season. Wheeler leaving makes the rotation significantly weaker. Porcello and Wacha both performed significantly worse than Jason Vargas last year, and do you remember how you felt about him being a key piece of the rotation going into the season.

The good news for the Mets is Porcello and Wacha prevent Lockett from pitching every 5th day. The bad news for the Mets – since they can’t seem to keep prospects, it’s a question mark if anyone will be ready to take a spot in case two members of the rotation go down and the Mets don’t want to dip into Lockett. With Gagnon and Flexen gone to Japan the Mets have a lot less starting pitching depth than they are letting on.

Of course, Wacha and Porcello could pitch a lot better than last year. But they are trending overall downwards and wishing that they outperform what they are heading towards is the same hoping for the best that the Mets have entered each year for the last several years.

It’s that time of year when missing baseball starts to hit hard. So to fill my needs to see some relevant baseball stats, I started to make a list of Mets players and players I’m interested in as a Mets fan who are playing this winter.

Mets Players

• Juan Lagares (Beisbol Domicano – Aguilas Cibaenas)
• Harol Gonzalez: Binghamton 2019 (Beisbol Domincao – Gigantes de Cibao)
• Phil Regan – Former Pitching Coach (Beisbol Domincano – Toros del Este)
• Tyler Bashlor (Beisbol Domincano – Toros del Este)
• Chris Mazza (Beisbol Domincano – Toros del Este)
• Daniel Zamora (Beisbol Domincano – Toros del Este)
• Juan Uriarte (Mexicana del Pacifico – Caneros de los Mochis)

Players Mets Fans Would Be Interested In

• Dario Alvarez: 2014-15 Mets (Beisbol Domincano – Aguilas Cibaenas)
• Anderson Hernandez: 2005-2007, 2009 Mets (Beisbol Domicano – Estrellas de Oriente)
• Gabriel Ynoa: 2016 Mets (Beisbol Domincano – Gigantes de Cibao)
• Gerson Bautista: 2018 Mets (Beisbol Domincano – Leones del Escogido)
• Merandy Gonzalez: Traded for AJ Ramos (Beisbol Domincano – Toros del Este)
• Jordany Valdespin: Mets Legend (Beisbol Domincano – Toros del Este)
• Phillip Evans: 2017-18 Mets (Mexicana del Pacifico – Aguilas de Mexicali)
• Ryan O’Rourke: 2019 Mets (Beisbol Profesional Roberto Clemente – Cangrejeros de Santurce)
• T.J. Rivera (Beisbol Profesional Roberto Clemente – Indios de Mayaguez)

Like many people who watch baseball who have a heart, we have been dismayed at worker compensation for minor league baseball teams. For a league with profit margins as large as Major League Baseball and for a league where the most exciting players are not even arbritation elgible yet, it seems like a no brainer to treat the kids well.

And by well we mean – a living wage, housing a meals to essentially not quite adult yet bseball players who are trying to become fit whiel surving on whatever they can get. While MLB players at the minimum make salaries 10x the average first year teaching salary in New Jersey, minor league players are lucky if they can break 10k over the course of the year.

This issue was made worse by Baseball baking into the Tax Code the “Protect America’s Past Time Act” which allows baseball to pay MiLB’ers as apprentices to avoid lawsuits overwages.

Now the MLB is taking another drastic step. Manfred is planning on eliminating 42 minor league teams, including entire short season leagues. Two Mets teams are on the chopping block – Binghamton and Kingsports. So in addition hurting individual players, the league is now going to hurt cities and taxpayers.

Not all MiLB teams are profitable but cities have poured tax breaks into stadiums and deals that are now threatened by this move. Teams also support dozens of local jobs in their individual townships.

To get more specific, I’ve been to 6 teams that are set to be eliminated: Binghamton, Vermont Lake Monsters (Burlington), Bristol (TN/VA), Frederick, Hagerstown and Mahoning Valley. The new ownership in Binghamton has spent the last couple of years spending a lot of money to upgrade the ballpark and it looks great. I’ve been there three times now in the last decade and the last time was by far the best and the most packed. Frederick has been part of the Maryland community for years. Hagerstown even longer, playing in an incredibly historic stadium. Bristol uses a high school stadium. Burlington uses a college stadium that has also been around for forever. For Bristol and Burlington – they do the rare thing in sports where a field is being used by multiple teams to make it worth upkeeping.

I’m already bracing myself for this elimination to happen. It’s a shame though, driving around to different cities to watch Minor League Baseball is the best and now dozens of cities are in jeopardy of having abandoned stadiums as monuments to major league baseball’s greed.

The 2019 season is finally over. A season marred with trades that didn’t pan out, a bullpen that under performed and an offense that went missing for a better part of the month. A season that saw a team go from 11 games under .500 to almost getting a post-season berth via the Wild Card. A season that saw new rookie home run record holder in Pete Alonso. A season that saw another dominant, possibly Cy Young level, campaign from Jacob deGrom. Personally, this may be one of the more memorable Mets seasons in my lifetime. Today they put on the cleats one more time and then we’ll just have to wait for next year.

Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for what could be, but most likely won’t be, his last start as a Met. He is 10-8 over 31 starts and 190.2 innings with a 4.30 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.243 WHIP and a 94 ERA+. He pitched more innings this year than he ever has and stats are generally the worst in his career. For four consecutive starts he has allowed 4 earned runs over 5.0 to 5.2 innings from 6-10 hits per start raising his ERA from 3.97 to 4.30. In his one start against the Braves this year he allowed 3 runs over 5.2 innings in a game the Mets won 8-5. The Braves have the following numbers against Noah:

• Nick Markakis 7-20, 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
• Freddie Freeman 9-20, 3 2B, 3B, HR, BB, 4 K
• Ender Inciarte 4-14, BB, 2 K
• Dansby Swanson 7-14, 3 K
• Ronald Acuna Jr. 4-10, 2B, HR, 3 K
• Ozzie Albies 2-9, HR, K
• Josh Donaldson 2-8, 2 2B, BB, 2 K
• Adeiny Hechavarria 2-8, 2 K

The Mets bats will end the season against the young stud pitcher for the Braves, Mike Soroka who is 13-4 over 28 games and 169.2 innings making his last warm-up for the post-season. He has a 2.60 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.090 WHIP and 177 ERA+ this season. His 0.7 HR/9 is the lowest in the league. That being said, he’s been more human the last two months posting an ERA of 3.46 over his last 7 starts and 41.2 innings of work. And although he beat the Mets both times he played them, he didn’t dominate them like he has to other teams. He first beat the Mets after allowing 3 runs over 6.0 innings, a game that rose his ERA from 1.92 to 2.12 in the middle of June. A week later he beat the Mets despite allowing 2 runs from 7 hits over 6.1 innings. In both games the Mets homered. The Mets have the following numbers against Soroka:

• Michael Conforto 2-12
• Todd Frazier 2-11, 2 K
• Amed Rosario 2-9, 2B, 2 K
• Pete Alonso 3-6, HR, K
• Robinson Cano 2-6, HR
• Tomas Nido 3-5, 2B, K

Let’s Go Mets!

Yesterday Pete Alonso tied Aaron Judge for the rookie home run record at 52 bombs. Now Pete has two more games this season to break the record. Besides that, 2019 continues to wind down at Citi Field as Marcus Stroman made his last start last night, capping off a successful month of September after a lack luster month of August. Tonight Steven Matz makes his last start of 2019 as we continue to say good bye to Mets baseball.

Steven Matz is 101-10 over 31 game sand 21 starts logging 154.1 innings with a 4.37 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 1.348 WHIP and a 93 ERA+. Last year he finished at exactly 154 innings, so its already the first time in his career that the has had back to back years of 150+ innings of work. Although his season ERA jumped (4.37 this year compared to 3.97 last year) some of his peripherals stayed practically the same (94 vs 93 ERA+, 4.62 vs 4.64 FIP). His WHIP did jump a full tenth of a point. Anyway the last two starts tanked his ability to finish the season at a sub 4.00 ERA, he’s allowed 13 runs over 9.0 innings so it would be nice if he can finish on a high note. He is 1-2 in 5 starts against the Braves this year allowing 11 runs in 25.0 innings, a 3.96 ERA. The Braves have the following numbers against him:

• Freddie Freeman 7-28, 2 2B, HR, BB, 4 K
• Tyler Flowers 2-17, 2B, 3 BB, 6 K
• Nick Markakis 3-18, 2B, BB, 4 K
• Ozzie Albies 3-15, 2B, 3 K
• Ronald Acuna Jr. 3-12, 3B, BB, 3 K
• Josh Donaldson 3-9, 2 HR
• Adeiny Hechavarria 2-11, K
• Dansby Swanson 3-9, 2B, BB, K

The Mets bats will get another look at Mike Folynewicz who is 8-5 over 20 starts and 113.0 innings with a 4.46 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.257 WHIP and 102 ERA+. In his last 6 starts and 37.2 innings he has allowed only 6 runs, 5 earned, which translates into a 1.19 ERA as opponents have batted .167/ .220/.258 against him. That stretch started against the Mets where he held them to 1 run over 7.0 innings from 2 hits and 2 walks. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Joe Panik 2-15, 3 K
• Todd Frazier 1-13, HR, BB, 7 K
• Michael Conforto 1-9, BB, 3 K
• Wilson Ramos 1-8, 2B, BB, K
• Juan Lagares 1-6, K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-5, HR, K
• Amed Rosario 0-5, 2 K
• Pete Alonso 0-3, K
• Jacob deGrom 1-2, HR (and not playing)

Let’s Go Mets!

Wheeler pitched eight innings last night, but it wasn’t enough as the Marlins were able to power past the Mets on 3 homers and beat them 4-2. TOnight the Mets will open their last series of the 2019 season against the Atlanta Braves who are doing their last tune up before the NLDS. For the Mets, the most exciting event this weekend will be Pete Alonso, still chasing the rookie record for homers.

Marcus Stroman makes his final start for the Mets in 2019. He went 3-2 over 10 starts and 53.2 innings as a Met so far posting a 3.86 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 1.509 WHIP and 106 ERA+. After allowing only 1 run over 13.1 innings in two starts, he stumbled a bit in his last start, allowing 2 runs over 4.2 innings from 3 hits and 3 walks. He was also battling a stomach bug which contributed to both his performance and his early exit. When he faced Atlanta earlier this season he allowed 3 runs, 2 earned over 5.1 innings from 4 hits and 4 walks. The Braves have the following numbers against him:

• Brian McCann 6-26, BB, 3 K
• Matthew Joyce 4-8, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 2 K
• Nick Markakis 3-10, K
• Ender Inciarte 1-9, 4 K
• Ronald Acuna Jr. 0-5, BB, 3 K
• Ozzie Albies 3-6
• Josh Donaldson 2-5, 2B, HR, BB, K
• Adeiny Hechavarria 0-2, K

The Mets get one last look at Dallas Keuchel who could be a New York Met in another universe. Who knows. He’s 8-7 over 18 starts and 107.2 innings with a 3.59 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 1.328 WHIP and 127 ERA+. He’s 5-2 and the team is 6-2 in his last 8 starts where he pitched 48.0 innings posting a very nice 2.06 ERA. This stretch was jump started by a 6.0 inning shutout performance against the New York Mets on August 14th and then reinforced two starts later against the New York Mets with a 7.0 inning shut out performance. The Mets have the following numbers against Dallas:

• Jed Lowrie 14-53, 3 2B, BB, 7 K
• Robinson Cano 11-46, 2B, HR, 5 K
• Rajai Davis 0-20, 2 2BB, 5 K
• Todd Frazier 1-10, 3 K
• Pete Alonso 0-5, 2 K
• Michael Conforto 1-5, BB, 4 K

Let’s Go Mets!

At least the Mets were eliminated because the Brewers won, not because the Mets lost. The Mets came out swinging last night like it was their final shot at a postseason bid – scoring 9 runs in the first three innings including Alonso’s 51st homer of the year. Jacob deGrom tossed another amazing start, going 7.0 scoreless innings padding his resume for a second consecutive Cy Young award. But, the Brewers won and now as Mets fans we have to switch gears and root for either them or the Cardinals against the Nationals in a Wild Card game at the end of the season.

The Mets still have a few story lines to play out. First, the Mets lost Jeff McNeil to a fractured wrist in last night’s game. Alonso still has a chance to tie and overtake the rookie home run record. Tonight is potentially Wheeler’s last start. Michael Conforto and Amed Rosario have excellent seasons to wrap up. With the pressure being off for winnings (and a winning season already wrapped up), it’s probably a good time to tinker with Edwin Diaz. Still a lot of things to look at in this final week of the season, even if they are the smallest of silver linings.

Zack Wheeler, rumored in trades in both the 2018 and 2019 deadlines, acquired in a trade deadline deal for Carlos Beltran in 2011 could be making his last Mets start tonight. He is 11-7 over 30 starts and 187.0 innings with a 3.99 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.286 WHIP and 102 ERA+. In his last five starts he has pitched 32.0 innings with a 1.41 ERA. He is 2-0 against the Marlins this year over 15.0 innings allowing only 2 runs on 17 hits and 2 walks while striking out 16. The Marlins have the following numbers against him:

• Starlin Castro 6-25, 7 K
• Martin Prado 6-19, 4 K
• Miguel Rojas 4-13, BB, 2 K
• Curtis Granderson 4-10, 2 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
• Lewis Brinson 1-11, 3 K
• Jorge Alfaro 0-6, 3 K
• Neil Walker 1-4, K

The Mets bats will close our their last game in 2019 against the Marlins facing rookie pitcher Jordan Yamamoto. Yamamoto is 4-5 over 14 starts and 72.2 innings with a 4.83 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 1.183 WHIP and 88 ERA+. In his last 8 starts he is 0-5, pitching 38.2 innings with a 7.68 ERA. This includes a start on August 7th against the Mets where he allowed 4 runs from 5 hits and a walk in 6.0 innings of work. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 1-3, HR, K
• Michael Conforto 1-2, HR, BB
• J.D. Davis 1-3, K
• Todd Frazier 0-3
• Jeff McNeil 0-2
• Wilson Ramos 1-3, K
• Amed Rosario 0-3, K

Let’s Go Mets!