The surprise of last year was Jacob deGrom. Last year, the year without Harvey, was supposed to be Wheeler’s time to step up with Syndergaard coming the following year. In addition, Montero was the player labeled most likely to break through from the minors to the majors but then deGrom happened on his way to a rookie of the year award. Here’s a reminder of his 2014 numbers:
2014 Stats: 9-6, 22 G, 140.1 IP, 144 K, 43 BB, 1.14 WHIP, 2.69 ERA
It was an amazing year for deGrom. Lets take a look at how the computers predict deGrom will follow up his rookie year performance:
PECOTA (BP): 8-9, 25 G, 147.2 IP, 126 K, 42 BB, 1.19 WHIP, 3.47 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 9-8, 144 IP, 121 K, 41 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.56 ERA
MLB.com: 12-8, 180 IP, 161 K, 49 BB, 1.17 WHIP, 3.15 ERA
ZiPS: 29 G, 174.1 IP, 159 K, 53 BB, 3.30 ERA
Steamer: 10-10, 29 G, 163.0 IP, 145 K, 52 BB, 3.92 ERA
ESPN: 12-9, 177 K, 1.18 WHIP, 3.25 ERA
Average: 10.2 – 8.8, 27.6 G, 161.2 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 3.44 ERA
So the computers project a season that is good but not as good as his rookie season. Expecting anything else from computer models after the rookie season deGrom had would be silly. Some projections were a little more bullish on a sophomore year than other, like ESPN. Others saw a huge regression, like Steamer (you could say Steamer called for a Steamer of a sophomore season, ha!).
