Baseball is almost at that time of year again where everybody starts to make predictions for next year in terms of players and teams. At this point in the year, I am always ready for these predictions because they give numbers to dissect before Spring Training and the Regular season produces actual numbers.
Last year, Street and Smith's Baseball was one of the few magazines that attempted to predict actual numbers for certain players in the upcoming year. These are the numbers that they predicted for Mets players in 2007 with the actual numbers the Mets players produced:
Carlos Beltran: Ranked #4 OF
Projected: .288 BA, 35 HR, 104 RBI, 18 SB
Actual: .276 BA, 33 HR, 112 RBI, 23 SB
In 2006, Beltran hit .275. I think predicting that he would hit above .285 would have been a little too optimistic. Besides that, they hit his power numbers pretty much on the spot. When SB is concerned with the Mets, the actual will always be higher than the predicted because the Mets love to run the bases.
Jose Reyes: Ranked #1 SS
Proj: .294 BA, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 56 SB
Act: .280 BA, 12 HR, 57 RBI, 78 SB
If Reyes' second half was like his first, his BA would have been closer to the predicted and his RBI would probably be better. People knew before the season that he could steal 78 bases, but if they said that, they would have been shot down as too optimistic.
David Wright: Ranked #2 3B
Proj: .299 BA, 26 HR, 105 RBI, 19 SB
Act: .325 BA, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 34 SB
His BA is no surprise to Mets fans here. Projections of Wright were down because of his second half in 2006 where he struggled, he rebounded in a big way in 2007.
Carlos Delgado: Ranked #7 1B
Proj: .291 BA, 34 HR, 112 RBI, 0 SB
Act: .258 BA, 24 HR, 87 RBI, 4 SB
Rough year. This year is going to be better.
Paul LoDuca: Ranked #16 C
Proj: .298 BA, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 2 SB
Act: .272 BA, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 2 SB
When I first saw this projection, I was upset that they gave him a .298 BA, especially after a .318 in 06, but they were right that his contact would go down. Surprising though that he hit 9 jacks.
Brian Schneider: Ranked #25 C
Proj: .262 BA, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB
Act: .235 BA, 6 HR, 54 RBI, 0 SB
Threw him in here just because.
Luis Castillo: Ranked #9 2B
Proj: .299 BA, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 21 SB
Act: .301 BA, 1 HR, 38 RBI, 19 SB
For the most part, they really got this guy right.
I don't understand how they figure out these projections. How ever they do it, they are always fun to read, they spark discussion and are a good distraction until real numbers come out.
Getting closer to that 2008 Baseball Season.
