If the Mets make the playoffs, they’ll need to buy the Pirates a beer or something.
The Mets had a sloppy 10-3 loss on Wednesday, but they are still in control of their own destiny. The Dodgers beat the Diamondbacks. The Pirates beat the Reds in 11 innings, a game where the Reds came back multiple times. Wednesday night was a cycle of “we’re so back / it’s so over / we’re so back”, and that seems like the only constant this week.
Nolan McLean has emerged as the most reliable starter on Mets staff, even though he has only started seven games pitching a total of 42 2/3 innings. He has a 1.27 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 1.008 WHIP and a 321 ERA+. He has allowed only two earned runs in his last three starts totaling 16 1/3 innings (1.10 ERA, 2.41 FIP) while striking out 18 batters. This will be his first start against the Chicago Cubs.
Shota Imanaga has made 24 starts in his second major league season totaling 139 innings with a 3.37 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 0.957 WHIP and a 115 ERA+. Imanaga has been incredibly consistent in his last five starts allowing three earned runs in each start. Over his last 29 innings he has a 4.66 ERA and a 6.38 FIP allowing 10 home runs over that stretch. The Mets have the following career stats against Imanaga:
- Pete Alonso 1-5, 2B, 3 K
- Francisco Alvarez 1-2, HR, K
- Brett Baty 0-2
- Francisco Lindor 2-4, 2 2B
- Starling Marte 1-5, K
- Jeff McNeil 2-3
- Brandon Nimmo 2-2, HR, K
- Tyrone Taylor 1-3, K
- Mark Vientos 0-2
Three Things To Watch For:
- Under-the-hood McLean. Nolan McLean is causing whiff’s, racking up strikeouts and generating groundballs. He has a 27.9 K% and 28.0 Whiff%. Hitters are barreling him only 5.8% of the time and he has a sky high 63.1% groundball rate. This has led to great results, as long as the Mets can field behind him, which has been a question of late.
- Mets Homers. Home runs has been an issue for Imanaga this year, allowing 29 of them this season, two more than his rookie season despite making five less starts. This explains the discrepancy between his FIP and his WHIP. As we discussed early, 10 homers have come in his last five starts. Heading into play today the Mets are tied with the Angels for fourth in the league with 220 home runs, already far surpassing 2025’s 207 homers.
- Lindor & Soto. Francisco Lindor is one home run away from his second 30-30 season. When the Mets needed Lindor most on Tuesday he led the game off with his 29th homer. Juan Soto is one walk away from matching John Olerud’s 1999 Mets franchise record 125 walks. He’s also currently leading the league with a .399 OBP. The Mets are going to need their two best hitters to carry the team in these last few games of the season.
Let’s Go Mets!
