The Mets are in a rough stretch right now. They have lost eight of their last nine games, including a seven game losing streak that they snapped back on Saturday. The good news is that they have hit 10 home runs in their last three games. The bad news is they lost two of those games, they were all solo home runs and seven of those homers happened in the same game (which isn’t technically bad news, but unfortunate news if you’re trying to win more than one game). Anyway tonight is another chance to reset themselves before they end of June as they welcome the Braves to Citi Field.
Paul Blackburn has totaled 13 innings over four games and two starts this season with a 6.92 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 1.692 WHIP and a 57 ERA+. In his first start of the season against the Dodgers he allowed no runs and only three hits over five innings. Since then he has allowed 11 runs, 10 earned, from 15 hits. This includes a start against the Braves last week where he allowed four runs, three earned over 3 2/3 innings. The Braves have the following career numbers against Blackburn:
- Ronald Acuña Jr. 1-3, HR, BB
- Ozzie Albies 3-4, 2 2B, 3B
- Nick Allen 0-1
- Drake Baldwin 0-2, K
- Michael Harris II 0-4
- Sean Murphy 1-1, BB
- Matt Olson 0-3, BB, K
- Marcell Ozuna 0-3, K
- Austin Riley 2-3, BB, K
- Alex Verdugo 4-12, 2 2B
The Mets bats will try to get something going again against Spencer Schwellenbach. Last week the Mets scored four runs over seven innings thanks to two home runs against Schwellenbach, in a game the Mets eventually lost in extra-innings. Overall this season, Schwellenbach has pitched 96 2/3 innings over 15 starts with a 3.26 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 1.014 WHIP and a 126 ERA+. The Mets have the following career stats against Schwellenbach:
- Luisangel Acuña 0-2
- Pete Alonso 4-11, 2B, BB, 2 K
- Francisco Lindor 0-9, 2 K
- Starling Marte 0-3
- Ronny Mauricio 0-3, 2 K
- Jeff McNeil 2-6, 2B
- Brandon Nimmo 0-12, 4 K
- Juan Soto 1-2, HR, BB
- Tyrone Taylor 4-8, 2 2B, HR, 2 K
- Luis Torrens 0-2, 2 K
- Jared Young 0-3, 2 K
Three Things To Watch For:
- Lindor is back! After five consecutive games without a hit, Lindor has recorded two straight multi-hit games. Over his last two games Lindor has gone 4-for-9 at the plate with a double and two home runs. The problem for the Mets though is they aren’t really hitting when Lindor (or anyone) is on base, and the only runs Lindor has scored over the last two games are his own home runs.
- Positive under-the-hood metrics for Paul Blackburn. Outside of his first start, Blackburn’s results have looked pretty bad season. There are some real positive statcast numbers for Blackburn though. Hitters are only getting hard hits against 27.1% of the time, which is near the top of the league (league averages is in the lower 40’s). This has been true for Blackburn throughout his four games. The average exit velocity for Blackburn is 87.3 mph (89.5 league average) and hitters are barrelling the ball 6.7% of the time (8.6 league average). Let’s see if that holds true when he faces the Braves for a second time.
- Tyrone Taylor. Were you surprised by Taylor’s lifetime numbers against Schwellenbach? I was! We already know that Taylor is a major asset for the Mets in the field (94th percentile for fielding run value, 91st in range, 97th in arm value and 83rd in arm strength). While his hitting has left a lot to be desired, he’s doing somethings well. He is in the 99th percentile for launch angle sweet spot. While his batting average is .232, his expected batting average is .276!
Let’s Go Mets!