The Mets head west to start a four game series against the Dodgers. At stake is the season tie-breaker. If the Dodgers and Mets both end up as Wild Card teams, the tie-breaker will get the team that has it into a more favorable scenario.
Right now the Mets have a 2-1 season series lead. The Dodgers won the first game of the series after a 90+ minute rain delay in a game that went 13 innings depleting the bullpens of both teams. The Mets then picked up wins on the next two games, both nationally televised. A win today for the Mets would be their third in a row against the Dodgers and fourth in a row in the traditional sense.
Paul Blackburn makes his 2025 debut this evening. The Mets acquired Blackburn in a trade at the the deadline last year from the Athletics. He had mixed success last season. In three starts for the Mets he allowed two runs or fewer. He allowed 12 runs in his other two starts, which overwhelm his season stats (5.18 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 1.562 WHIP, 76 ERA+ over 24 1/3 innings).
Blackburn is coming back from a terrifying injury. He got hit in the hand by a comebacker at the end of August, which initially sidelined him. While he was rehabbing from that injury it was discovered that actually had a spinal fluid leak and needed back surgery. He had a specific version of the surgery that would allow him to continue to pitch. He was actually ready to go in spring but had a different knee injury that sidelined him until now. Over seven starts in the minors he has pitched 29 1/3 innings with a 3.68 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. The Dodgers have the following career numbers against him:
- Michael Conforto 1-6, HR, K
- Tommy Edman 0-2
- Kiké Hernández 1-3, K
- Teoscar Hernández 0-3, BB
- Shohei Ohtani 4-9, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 3 K
The Mets bats will look to keep their power surge going against Dustin May tonight. Over 10 games, 55 2/3 innings, May has a 4.20 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 1.240 WHIP and a 93 ERA+. May missed the Mets a couple of weeks ago. Homeruns are the issue for May right now. He gave up at least one home run in every start in May (six homers in five starts) and the homers have essentially determined whether he had a quality or not start. He is hitting his stride with strikeouts, getting 25 strikeouts in his last three starts (16 innings). The Mets have the following career numbers against him:
- Pete Alonso 2-3
- Brett Baty 1-2
- Francisco Lindor 0-2
- Starling Marte 0-3
- Jeff McNeil 2-3, 2B
- Brandon Nimmo 1-5, 2 K
- Juan Soto 1-9, 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
- Luis Torrens 0-2
Three Things To Watch For:
- Juan Soto. Hope all the baseball pundits writing negative think pieces about Soto are ready, because he’s on a hot streak now. After going hitless in four straight games, he has three extra-base hits in his last three games. This past weekend he went 4-for-9 at the plate with a double, two home runs, two walks and four runs scored (.444/.583/1.222).
- Homeruns. Power has been the Mets salvation the last three days. The Mets have hit eight homers. On Saturday the homers piled onto a big lead. On Sunday the Mets homered allowed the Mets to keep coming back each time the Rockies either took the lead or tied the game. May has allowed six home runs over his last five starts. The Mets have won the last 26 games in a row where Lindor has homered, and he homered three times over two games this past weekend.
- Containing Shohei. Ohtani has seen Blackburn plenty back from their AL West days. Ohtani is having another Ohtani season with 22 home runs already (good for second in the league behind Cal Raleigh and in front of Aaron Judge). The Dodgers offense runs through Ohtani who has already scored 63 times (league leading, Judge is the next closest at 55). The Mets attacked Ohtani head one a couple of weeks ago and he went only 2-for-13 that weekend with a solo home run and two runs scored.
Let’s Go Mets!
