Without the context of everything happening around the Mets for the last two months, tonight’s game should be an incredibly exciting game. Jacob deGrom returns to Citi Field to take on the Mets. The Mets send out Jonah Tong and are about to send out a trio of phenom prospects. The most exciting group of starting pitchers since deGrom et al. Both teams are in a playoff race. This should be must watch TV.
The Mets are just playing terribly right now. They have lost six games in a row and are one bad weekend away from losing their Wild Card spot. Thursday night the Mets looked great after the first inning but then fell apart again. They desperately need a win.
Jonah Tong will make his third start of his career tonight. In his first two starts he allowed eight runs, five earned over 11 innings scattering nine hits while striking out 12 batters. Tong cruised through his first start before running into trouble in the fifth inning from Marlins hitters and Mets fielding. The Reds just played a very Reds game in his last start. He allowed only three hits and all three of them were home runs, which matches almost exactly how the Great American Ball Park plays.
Jacob deGrom has pitched over 100 innings this season for the first time since 2019. Over 155 2/3 innings, spread over 27 starts deGrom has a 2.78 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 0.931 WHIP and a 132 ERA+. He’s coming off of a more human start against the Astros where he allowed three runs over 5 1/3 innings, mostly due to two home runs. In the three starts before that he allowed only two runs over 15 innings while striking out 18 batters. The Mets have the following career stats against deGrom:
- Starling Marte 2-12, BB, 5 K
- Cedric Mullins 1-7, K
- Juan Soto 5-18, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 5 K
Three Things To Watch For:
- Jacob deGrom. deGrom will make his first start against the Mets since leaving the Mets in 2022. The long time ace for the Mets ranks third in Mets career pitching bWAR (41.2, behind Gooden 41.6 and Seaver 76.1) and has the best career ERA (2.52, in front of Seaver 2.57). I personally thought I would have more feelings about his return, but I don’t. It’s a combination of how poorly the Mets have played recently and how long ago 2022 was. This is deGrom’s first really dominant year since signing that massive contract with the Rangers. If he returned one or two seasons after signing with the Rangers emotions would be stronger but the Mets have lived multiple different lives since he left.
- Repeat last night’s start. The Mets had the perfect start to Thursday’s game. Lindor single. Soto single. Double steal. Multiple hits with runners in scoring position. Four runs scored. Shut down first inning on the field. But then the hitters were basically silent for the rest of the night. As the game got to the middle innings, where things fall apart for the Mets, they allowed six runs and just could not recover. The Mets need another fast start, but then need to sustain it throughout the game.
- Wild Card race. The Mets are going to need some help tonight. The two most important games will start probably around when the Mets game ends. The Reds and Brady Singer will take on the struggling Athletics. Justin Verlander and the Giants will take on Yamamoto and the Dodgers. There’s a world where we wake up tomorrow and the Mets have a 2.5 game lead in the Wild Card race. There’s also a world where the Mets have a 0.5 game lead.
Let’s Go Mets!
