The Mets cannot take the division lead this week against the Phillies, but can effectively lose it. The Mets start a critical four game series in Philadelphia tonight. The Phillies have a seven game lead in the division and are on a three game winning streak. The Mets swept the Phillies the last time they met, making the division a bit of a race again. Since then the Phillies have been able to slowly build their lead back up. While winning the NL East feels like an extremely long shot, beating the Phillies in this four game set would not only give the Mets a moral boost, it would also mess with Phillies players, who had a team meeting after getting swept at Citi a couple of weeks ago.
Nolan McLean has been a revelation for the Mets so far. He’s 4-0 over his first four starts as a Met totaling 26 1/3 innings with a 1.37 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 0.759 WHIP and a 300 ERA+. This will be the first time in his career that he faces a lineup for a second time. Last time he played the Phillies he scattered four hits over eight shutout innings while striking out six batters. The Phillies have the following career numbers against him:
- Harrison Bader 0-3, K
- Alec Bohm 2-3
- Nick Castellanos 0-3, K
- Bryce Harper 1-3, K
- Max Kepler 1-3, K
- J.T. Realmuto 0-3
- Kyle Schwarber 0-3
- Bryson Stott 0-3, K
- Trea Turner 0-3, K
The Mets bats will go against an old foe in Aaron Nola tonight. Over 13 starts and 69 innings this season Nola has a 6.78 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 1.507 WHIP and a 66 ERA+. In his last two starts he has allowed 10 runs from 10 hits over 11 innings. Since he’s returned to the majors he has made four starts with a 8.38 ERA. Nola last faced the Mets back in April allowing four runs from seven hits over 6 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career stats against him:
- Luisangel Acuña 1-3, K
- Pete Alonso 18-55, 3 2B, 6 HR, 5 BB, 16 K
- Francisco Alvarez 2-4, HR, K
- Brett Baty 0-7, 2 BB, 3 K
- Francisco Lindor 8-38, 2 2B, HR, 2 BB, 10 K
- Starling Marte 11-33, 2 2B, HR, 10 K
- Jeff McNeil 14-43, 2 2B, HR, 5 BB, 9 K
- Brandon Nimmo 14-57, 3B, 2 HR, 13 BB, 21 K
- Juan Soto 10-41, 3 2B, 3 HR, 15 BB, 10 K
- Luis Torrens 2-6
- Mark Vientos 2-6, 2 K
- Jared Young 1-2, HR
Three Things To Watch For:
- Juan Soto watch continues. Juan Soto went 1-for-4 on Sunday with a solo home run. He now has 38 home runs and 29 stolen bases. He will have his first 30-30 season at his next stolen base and if he has mega night at CBP, he could unlock a 40-30 season. He’s now at 5.9 bWAR, getting closer to his third six+ WAR season. Soto is also sitting at 117 walks, only eight away from John Olerud’s Mets single season record.
- Knock on wood, the bullpen has stabilized a bit. The Mets lost Sunday’s game but Garrett looked good in his first game back from the injured list. He and Tyler Rogers both pitched clean innings of relief and the bullpen held on to 5-4 lead on Friday night. Hopefully this is a sign that things are starting to return to normal for the Mets relief corps.
- The rest of the playoff picture. On Sunday the Reds and Cardinals won, the Giants and Diamondbacks lost. All four teams now are right around .500 for the season and are between 4.0 and 4.5 games behind the Mets for the last wild card spot. The Padres won and moved two games ahead of the Mets. The Reds and Padres start a series tonight along with the Diamondbacks vs the Giants. This is going to be a fun week to follow the wild card race!
Let’s Go Mets!
