The next seven games can decide if the Mets make the playoffs.
Heading into play today the Mets trail the Phillies for the division lead by six games. They are five games ahead of the Reds for the last wild card spot. A solid series in Cincinnati this weekend could effectively knock the Reds out of the postseason picture (barring a Padres and Giants collapse). In July the Reds took two of three games from the Mets, so there is a possibility the Reds could get the tiebreaker outright from the Mets this weekend. The Mets are still in control of their destiny, let’s go!
David Peterson has pitched 152 innings over 26 games this season with a 3.61 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.309 WHIP and a 111 ERA+. Peterson is coming off of a rough start against the Marlins where he allowed eight runs over the first two innings from eight hits and three walks. Before that start he allowed only three runs over his previous 13 2/3 innings while striking out 18 in that stretch. He had a great start against the Reds back in July holding the Reds to one unearned run over six innings, scattering four hits. The Reds have the following career numbers against Peterson:
- Miguel Andujar 2-7, 2B, BB
- Elly De La Cruz 1-3
- Santiago Espinal 1-4
- TJ Friedl 1-6, BB, 2 K
- Ke’Bryan Hayes 4-9, 2B, 2 BB, K
- Austin Hays 0-4, K
- Gavin Lux 0-2, BB
- Noelvi Marte 2-5
- Matt McLain 1-3, 2 K
- Spencer Steer 1-6, HR, 2 BB, K
- Jose Trevino 1-1
Andrew Abbott has pitched 139 innings over 24 starts with a 2.65 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 1.115 WHIP and a 173 ERA+. August was a rougher month for Abbott who has a 4.45 ERA, 3.63 FIP over 30 1/3 innings spread over five games. This includes a seven inning shutout (August 17th) and seven runs, six earned over four innings (August 23rd). He held the Mets to two runs over six innings back in July and the Mets have the following career stats against him:
- Luisangel Acuña 1-1, 2B
- Pete Alonso 0-4, BB, 2 K
- Brett Baty 2-6, K
- Francisco Lindor 3-7, 2B, HR, BB, K
- Starling Marte 1-2, BB, K
- Ronny Mauricio 2-2
- Jeff McNeil 1-4, 2 BB
- Cedric Mullins 2-4, 2B, HR, K
- Brandon Nimmo 1-8, 3 K
- Juan Soto 3-8, BB
- Luis Torrens 1-3
- Mark Vientos 2-5, K
Three Things To Watch For:
- Francisco Alvarez. Alvarez is somehow expected to be activated before tonight’s game. We say somehow because he has been through it over the last month. Against the Mariners in mid-August, he sprained his UCL in his right thumb sliding around the bases. He’s playing through the injury despite needing surgery to really fix it. While rehabbing, he got hit in his left hand by a pitch, fracturing his pinky finger. So here comes Francisco Alvarez with two hurt hands. Alvarez was smoking the ball before getting injured, with three multi-hit games in his last seven played with three home runs, two doubles, seven runs scored and nine RBI’s over that stretch. He’s coming off a game in the minors where he hit a grand slam.
- Ballpark Factors. Over the last three years, The Great American Ball Park has had a park factor of 103, which is fourth in the majors (positive for hitters). Great American’s park factor is almost entirely due to its home run numbers, 123, meaning that players from all teams are observed to have 23% more home runs at GABP compared to their performance elsewhere. We already know the Mets smash home runs. We also know the Mets bullpen has been a struggle recently. This will play part of the story all weekend. Interestingly, Andrew Abbott has much better splits at home (81 innings, 2.11 ERA, 8 HR) compared to on the road (58 innings, 3.41 ERA, 7 ER).
- Scoreboard watching. The wild card race has gotten interesting over the last couple of days. The Padres have lost eight of their last ten games and now have a one game lead over the Mets for the second wild card spot. They are playing the Rockies this weekend. The Giants have surged winning nine of their last ten games and have leapfrogged the Reds now. While the Reds are five games back, the Giants are only four games back of the Mets for the last wild card spot. The Phillies with their six game lead in the division start a series with the Marlins tonight.
Let’s Go Mets!
