The Mets are rolling right now!
The Mets are coming off of a series sweep against the Phillies. They are now trailing the Phillies by only four games for the division lead. While the focus has been on the Phillies, a lot of other things have broken the Mets way this past week. They are now only four games out of the top wild card spot. The Reds are now 4.5 games behind them for the last wild card spot (1.5 to start the week). The vibes are good!
It has been a minute since the Mets have played the Marlins. The Mets and Marlins played each other every other day in spring training and then had two of the first four series of the year against each other. A lot has changed for the Marlins since then, mainly that their starting pitching has started to become a real strength for them, which we’ll see later in this four game set. The Mets offense has finally started to step up, should be an interesting weekend in Queens!
Clay Holmes has pitched 137 1/3 innings over 26 games this season with a 3.60 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.318 WHIP and a 109 ERA+. In his last two starts he has allowed only three runs over 11 1/3 innings scattering eight hits while striking out eight. He went 6 1/3 innings in his last start, which was the first time he did that since June 7th. Holmes faced the Marlins in back-to-back starts in April, allowing two runs, one earned over 4 2/3 innings the first time out and four runs over 5 1/3 innings the second time. In that second start, he struck out 10 Marlins which was a season high. The Marlins have the following career numbers against Holmes:
- Xavier Edwards 2-6, K
- Liam Hicks 2-4, 2 K
- Derek Hill 0-2, K
- Otto López 2-5, 2B, BB, K
- Javier Sanoja 1-4, 3 K
- Eric Wagaman 0-2
- Tyler Zuber 0-1, K
The Marlins are recalling prospect Adam Mazur tonight. Mazur made eight starts in 2024 for the Padres pitching 33 2/3 innings with a 7.49 ERA, 6.23 FIP, 1.812 WHIP and a 56 ERA+. This includes a start against the Mets where he allowed two runs over 3 2/3 innings from three hits and six walks. The Marlins acquired him at the 2024 deadline as part of the Tanner Scott trade. As a Marline, he has made one start against the Phillies this season back in June where he allowed four runs from five hits over 5 2/3 innings. He has 107 1/3 innings in AAA ball this season with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.295 WHIP. The Mets have the following career stats against Mazur:
- Pete Alonso 0-2, 2 K
- Francisco Lindor 1-1, 2B, 2 BB
- Jeff McNeil 0-2
- Brandon Nimmo 1-3, 2B, K
- Mark Vientos 0-1, BB
Three Things To Watch For:
- Mark Vientos. Vientos was the x-factor for the 2024 Mets and it feels like he’s back. Over a 10 game hitting streak he has gone 15-for-38 with four doubles and six home runs and 17 RBI’s slashing .395/.442/.974. He has completely flipped the script on his OPS+. A couple of days ago he had a 97 OPS+ and now he’s at 106. His slugging has gone up 70 points in the last 10 games. Carry us to October Swaggy V!
- Runners In Scoring Position. The Mets have become a different team recently with RISP. Earlier this season, even when the team was cruising back in May, the team couldn’t buy a hit with RISP. This past week they have gone 21-for-37. Numbers we could only dream about! Was this a Philly special or will it continue on with the Marlins tonight?
- Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo is quietly putting together a solid season for the Mets. Wednesday night he went 3-for-4. Tuesday he had two RBI’s including the game winning single. He also praised every hitter before him in a great postgame interview. He now has a 3.0 bWAR, 0.8 bWAR higher than last season. He has a 117 OPS+, which is not as good as his 2020-2023 stretch, is still quite a bit better than his 107 OPS+ last season. His OBP is essentially identical to 2024 (.327 last year vs .328 this year) but his slugging has jumped 36 points.
Let’s Go Mets!
