Game Preview: Mets @ Pirates

The 2024 Mets went on quite the run after a closed door team meeting. Will history repeat itself?

After Saturday’s loss the Mets held a players only meeting. The team has spin spiraling of late, losing 12 of their last 15 games. Saturday’s loss featured two things that have become common during the losing streak: leaving tons of runners on base, and one big inning from the opposing team that puts the game out of reach. Hopefully they can get back on the right path today!

The Mets rotation has been remade over the last couple of weeks and they need Frankie Montas to build off of his successful Mets debut last week. In his first start against the Braves Montas tossed five scoreless innings allowing three hits and three walks while striking out five. You would think as a member of the Reds and Brewers last season, Montas would have faced the Pirates – but he didn’t! The Pirates have the following, limited, numbers against Montas:

  • Adam Frazier 3-8, 2B
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 4-13, BB, 2 K
  • Andrew McCutchen 0-1, BB
  • Tommy Pham 2-9, HR, 4 K

The Mets bats will get a look at Mike Burrows this afternoon. Over seven games, six starts (30 1/3 innings), Burrows has a 4.45 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.319 WHIP and a 96 ERA+. Burrows had a rough two starts to the season in late May, allowing nine runs over 8 1/3 innings. He’s been a lot more effective in May allowing seven runs over 22 innings while striking out 25 batters (2.86 ERA, 3.40 FIP). The only hitter on the Mets who has seen Burrows in a game is Juan Soto (0-1, BB).

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. How long can Burrows pitch? Burrows longest outing this season was 5 1/3 innings, which he has done twice this year. The most pitches he has tossed in a game is 88 and has only pitched above 80 pitches twice over seven games. He’s also off schedule. Burrows made a start on 6/20 and then had come in as long relief for Paul Skenes on 6/25. He ended up pitching 2 1/3 innings of shut-out ball, tossing 31 pitches. The Pirates ended up knocking Burrows back a day to get more rest. Hopefully the Mets can take advantage of Burrows being out of sync.
  2. Frankie Montas pitch selection. Let’s go ahead and read too much into Montas’ first start last week. Montas used his four seamer 33.8% of the time, which was nearly identical to the 33% of the time he used it in 2024. Montas used his sinker 28.8% of the time in his debut, which was about 50% more than the 19.3% of the time he used it in 2024. The Brave also got two of their three hits against his sinker. As Montas gets more innings, let’s see if the Mets keep asking him to use his sinker more than last year.
  3. Hitting with RISP. The Mets were doing well hitting with runners in scoring position in the two games they won against the Braves earlier in the week. It’s been a disaster in Pittsburgh though. Over the last two games the Mets have gone 2-for-17 leaving 18 runners on base. It’s been comically bad so far this series.

Let’s Go Mets!

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