The Mets finally defeated the Braves in 2025! The Mets had a huge win Wednesday night finally beating the Braves and setting up the possibility to split the four game series this week. It’s been a rough two weeks for the Mets and getting two consecutive wins will go a long way mentally to stop the spiral and resume the dominance from earlier this month.
Griffin Canning has pitched 73 2/3 innings this season with a 3.91 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.412 WHIP and a 98 ERA+. He’s in the midst of a tough stretch allowing at least four runs in each of his last three starts (14 runs, 13 earned over 14 2/3 innings, 7.98 ERA, 5.32 FIP). Canning missed the Braves last week. He had a tough start against them in 2024 allowing seven runs from eight hits and two homers over 4 1/3 innings. The Braves have the following numbers against Canning:
- Nick Allen 1-2, K
- Michael Harris II 3-3, 2B
- Sean Murphy 1-4, K
- Matt Olson 4-18, 2B, 2 HR, BB, 7 K
- Marcell Ozuna 4-5, 2 HR, BB
- Austin Riley 1-3
- Alex Verdugo 1-11, 2 K
Grant Holmes is having a solid second season in the majors. Over 16 games, 15 starts he has pitched 85 innings with a 3.71 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 1.224 WHIP and a 111 ERA+. He’s coming off a great start where he held the Marlins scoreless over 5 2/3 innings. Before that he allowed exactly three runs in each of four consecutive starts (20 2/3 innings, 4.79 ERA, 3.32 FIP). Holmes made one start against the Mets last year, but it was the second game in the season-ending double header right after the Mets clinched a wild card spot (4 IP, H, K). The Mets have the following career stats against Holmes:
- Pete Alonso 1-2, K
- Starling Marte 0-1, BB, K
- Brandon Nimmo 0-2, 2 K
- Juan Soto 0-1
- Tyrone Taylor 0-1
- Luis Torrens 0-1, K
Three Things To Watch For:
- Juan Soto. Soto is having a June to remember, He’s hit five home runs in his last five games (7-for-17, 6 R, 5 HR, SB, 3 BB, 1.794 OPS). He’s now has a 3.5 bWAR and a 157 OPS+. If the season ended today, that would be his fourth best OPS+ for a season. It’s Juan Soto summer now and hopefully the Mets can ride the wave to split this series.
- Hitting with RISP. The Mets have actually started to hit with RISP over the last two games going 7-for-13. While they still lost on Wednesday, this is a positive development for the Mets. They are now both getting runners into scoring position, and getting hits once they’re there. Throughout the current two week spiral, the Mets were struggling just to get runners on!
- Sliders vs Four Seamers. The Mets already had to deal with Spencer Strider’s slider this week, now they need to handle Grant Holmes’ slider, which hitters have a .138 BA, .190 xBA against. It’s part of the reason why Holmes is in the 99th percentile for breaking ball run value. His four-seamer, which he uses 35.8% of the time (almost the same amount of time as his slider) is another story. Hitters are currently smashing his four seamer with a .352 BA, .325 xBA and .750 SLG. It’s currently in the second percentile for fastball run value.
Let’s Go Mets!
