Tuesday night was another tough night for the Mets. They got a few hits with RISP early and took a 3-0 lead. Then the bullpen just imploded and the Braves scored seven runs, eventually winning the game 7-4. Super frustrating but today is another day and the Mets turn to Clay Holmes to right the ship.
Clay Holmes has pitched 83 innings this season with a 3.04 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.229 WHIP and a 125 ERA+. His last start against the Braves wasn’t great, where he allowed three runs from four hits and six walks over 4 2/3 innings, reaching 104 pitches early. It was the most pitches he has tossed in a game this season and by far the most amount of walks. In his two starts before that he allowed only two runs from 12 hits over 11 innings. The Braves have the following career numbers against Holmes:
- Ronald Acuña Jr. 0-3, 2 BB
- Ozzie Albies 2-4, 2B, BB, K
- Nick Allen 1-2, 2B, K
- Drake Baldwin 0-1, 2 BB
- Stuart Fairchild 0-1, 2 BB
- Michael Harris II 0-3
- Sean Murphy 0-2, 2 K
- Matt Olson 0-1, 2 BB
- Marcell Ozuna 1-5, BB, 2 K
- Austin Riley 1-6, 2 K
- Alex Verdugo 3-8, 4 BB, 2 K
The Mets bats will get a look at rookie Didier Fuentes who is coming off of his first career start against the Marlins last week. In that game he allowed four runs from six hits and a walk over five innings. In 2024 Fuentes pitched 75 2/3 innings in single A ball with a 2.74 ERA, 1.018 WHIP. This season he pitched 39 1/3 innings over nine starts and across three levels of minor league ball with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.119 WHIP.
Three Things To Watch For:
- Strikeouts. Mets hitters have been striking out at an increased rate over the last two weeks while the team has been spiraling. Part of it has been the level of starting pitching the Mets have been facing recently. Tuesday night the Mets struck out 14 times with six hitters striking out two times. Somehow the Mets still did well with RISP (4-for-7, six LOB). The Mets are facing a young prospect tonight with a live fastball, don’t make it easier for him tonight!
- Fuentes pitch selection. Fuentes, a top-10 prospect for the Braves, has a mid-to-high 90’s fastball, high-80’s splitter, low-80’s sweeper and a high-70’s curveball. In his first start he leaned on his fastball nearly 60% of the time, and hitters had an expected batting average of .401 against it. Hitters struggled with his sweeper. Fuentes used his sweeper 18 times and no one got a hit against it (.198 xBA).
- Groundball King. Clay Holmes gets hitters to produce groundballs 53.8% of the time (league average 42.6%). He’s in the 90th percentile according to Baseball Savant and it is the only under-the-hood metric that Holmes is doing well in right now. He’s been able to turn the groundball into a serious weapon. After his last start, he needs a night with a lot of grounders and quick innings.
Let’s Go Mets!
