It’s been a tough week for the Mets. The Braves beat the Mets 5-0 and have a chance to sweep the Mets tonight in Atlanta. It would be the second consecutive series being swept for the Mets. Wednesday night was a night to forget for the Mets who only squeaked out five hits and a walk. They went 0-for-1 with runners in scoring position. The Mets just need one good game to get the offense roaring again.
Clay Holmes looks to play the role of stopper tonight. Over 14 starts this season Holmes has pitched 78 1/3 innings with a 2.87 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 1.174 WHIP and a 132 ERA+. Over his last two starts he has allowed two runs from 12 hits and two walks over 11 innings. Both runs were scored on solo home runs which has been the only weakness in his game as of late. All nine home runs he’s allowed this season have happened since May 9th. The Braves have the following career numbers against him:
- Ronald Acuña Jr. 0-1, BB
- Ozzie Albies 1-2, 2B, BB
- Stuart Fairchild 0-1, 2 BB
- Michael Harris II 0-1
- Sean Murphy 0-2, 2 K
- Marcell Ozuna 0-2, BB, K
- Austin Riley 0-3, K
- Alex Verdugo 3-6, 3 BB, K
Spencer Strider has mostly had a rough return from injury. Over 31 innings he has a 4.35 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.161 WHIP and a 94 ERA+ while striking out 37 batters. That being said, he’s coming off of a classic Strider start where he held the Rockies scoreless over six innings, scattering three hits while striking out 13. It was by far his best start of the season. His previous best start was 4 2/3 innings against the Phillies, allowing one run from one hit and four walks while striking out seven. The Mets have the following career numbers against Strider:
- Pete Alonso 2-12, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 7 K
- Francisco Alvarez 1-5, HR, BB, 3 K
- Brett Baty 2-4, K
- Francisco Lindor 6-16, 3B, 2 BB, 2 K
- Starling Marte 2-7, 2 BB, 3 K
- Jeff McNeil 3-13, 2B, 2 K
- Brandon Nimmo 8-16, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
- Juan Soto 2-7, 3 BB
Three Things To Watch For:
- Spencer Strider’s Slider. Strider has a devastating slider, but it has been widely reported it’s just not the same since his surgery. Right now it’s average 83.8 mph, before the injury it was 85-86 mph. So far he’s using it around the same amount that he used to (about a third of the time). Will he eventually need to change his pitch mix? For tonight, the Mets need to see how it moves and hopefully they can take advantage of a slightly slower slider.
- Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo has fantastic numbers against Spencer Strider. He’s hitting .500/.579/1.063 against Strider over his career with 16 at-bats. Nimmo has a 112 OPS+ this season, a slight improvement over his 107 OPS+ from last season, but still a far cray from the four years from 2020-2023 where he was hitting with at least a 128 OPS+.
- Jeff McNeil. Jeff’s single Wednesday night extended his on base streak to 20 games. Over his on-base streak he has hit .300/.367/.571 with 21 hits and nine extra-base hits raising his season line from .226/.355/.435to .265/.361/.508. For context, John Olerud has the longest Mets on-base streak at 47 games set between the 1998 and 1999 seasons.
Let’s Go Mets!
