The Mets took the series against the first place Cubs over the weekend and now welcome the last place Pirates to Citi Field. The Pirates fired their Manger Derek Shelton last Thursday as the team was free falling through the start of May. The team has rallied since then, winning two of their last three games against the Braves There only loss was a 3-2 extra inning game. The Pirates have the perfect scenario to keep the winning times going – Paul Skenes opens up the series in Queens. It’s one of the most exciting pitchers in baseball against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball!
David Peterson has tossed 38 1/3 innings over seven games with a 3.05 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 1.357 WHIP and a 130 ERA+. The Diamondbacks were able score four times off Peterson in his last start off of eight hits and four walks. Last season he allowed two runs from five hits and two walks over 4 1/3 innings in Pittsburgh. The Pirates have the following numbers against Peterson:
- Joey Bart 1-5, 2 BB, 2 K
- Oneil Cruz 1-3, HR, 2 K
- Henry Davis 0-2
- Ke’Bryan Hayes 1-4, BB, K
- Andrew McCutchen 1-14, HR, 4 BB, 5 K
- Liover Peguero 2-2, HR
- Tommy Pham 0-2, K
- Bryan Reynolds 2-7, 2 K
- Jared Triolo 0-1, BB, K
The Mets get the tough battle of the week out of the way in game one against Paul Skenes. Over 48 2/3 innings (eight starts), Skenes has a 2.77 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 0.945 WHIP and a 153 ERA+. He’s giving up hits, walks and home runs at almost the identical rates compared to his rookie season (0.947 WHIP vs 0.945). The big difference for Skenes this season has been the strikeout rate, dropping from 11.5 K/9 to 8.7 K/9. He’s looked pretty human in his last two starts allowing five runs from eight hits and eight walks over 11 innings (4.09 ERA, 7.39 FIP). Against the Mets last season he allowed two runs from four hits and two walks over seven innings while striking out eight. The Mets have the following career stats against Skenes:
- Pete Alonso 2-3, 2B, K
- Francisco Alvarez 0-2, K
- Francisco Lindor 0-3
- Jeff McNeil 1-3, HR
- Brandon Nimmo 0-2, BB, K
- Juan Soto 0-1, K
Three Things To Watch For:
- Mark Vientos. Is Mark Vientos heating up again? Over his last two games he has gone 4-for-8 with three runs scored and a home run. His home run on Sunday was his first extra base hit in the month of May. Vientos has quietly been building a high on-base percentage over the last eight games, getting on base at a .400 clip. If he gets his power back too the Pirates better watch out!
- Francisco Lindor. How lucky are we that we get to watch Francisco Lindor day after day. In his last four games Lindor has gone 8-for-19 with two doubles, two home runs, three stolen bases (.444/.474/.889). Going 2-for-4 at the plate on Sunday flipped his batting average back above .300 for the first time since he went 4-for-25 to start off the month of May.
- Expected Outcomes vs Actual Outcomes. David Peterson is having a great season for the Mets. His ERA and ERA+ are fantastic, both are the second lowest in his career. His FIP is the best of his career. The expected numbers don’t look great though. He’s in the 33rd percentile for xERA (4.49), 12th in xBA (.288), 11th in average exit velocity (91.5 mph). 19th for Whiff% (20.5%) and 4th for Hard-hit (52.2%). Despite all of this he’s getting positive results because hitters aren’t barreling the ball (79th percentile, 5.2% of the time). For context, this is about half the rate that the Cubs, one of the best barreling teams, barrel the ball. He’s also in the 92nd percentile in ground balls (58.3 %). Tonight is another battle in the expected vs actual outcome war.
Let’s Go Mets!
