2018 Stat Projection Review: Yoenis Cespedes

The Mets 2018 season is going to depend on the bat of Yoenis Cespedes. Yoenis is not just one of the most feared hitters in the Mets lineup, he has the swagger the Mets need on the field. Once the Mets lost him and Syndergaard last year, the team lost a lot of its swagger. Let’s take a look at some of the numbers the projections see Yoenis posting:

Yoenis Cespedes
Source	PA	AB	H	R	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	WAR
Baseball Prospectus	601		118.462	78	28	0.262	0.315	0.477	3.3
ZiPS	500		122	69	25	0.268	0.322	0.502	3.4
Steamer	558	504	136	74	30	0.27	0.332	0.51	2.7
ESPN		559	159.874	87	33	0.286	0.344	0.531
MLB.com		510	143.82	80	29	0.282	0.342	0.518
Baseball Reference	415	374	104	57	22	0.278	0.339	0.521
Average:	518.5	486.75	130.6927	74.16667	27.83333	0.274333	0.332333	0.509833	3.133333
2017 Stats:	321	291	85	46	17	0.292	0.352	0.54

Cespedes last year was hampered by injuries. What the numbers don’t take into account are the changes to Cespedes’s health in the off-season. He is supposedly drinking water now, lifting less weights and doing more yoga. Will it protect his hamstrings? That’s what the data is having a hard time taking that into account.

Baseball Prospectus and ESPN sees Cespedes playing a whole season, Steamer and MLB.com sees Yo playing a whole season with some time off. Everyone else is looking at some significant time off.

The projectiosn are pretty consistent on his power numbers and see a regression in power and a slight, slight regression in OBP and batting average. The slash line means nothing though if Cespedes doesn’t play the whole season.