The hero of last year signed a 1 to 3 year deal with the Mets this off-season, and all is right in the world. Really though, Cespedes and the Mets are made for each other. Cespedes needs the atmosphere that his teammates and this city can provide. We need Cespedes for his power. His bat completely changes the lineup in terms of protection, stretching power up and down the lineup, etc. The question is, what will he do next year:
| Player: | Yoneis Cespedes | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Source: | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| MLB.com | 585 | 86 | 27 | 95 | 6 | 0.27 | 0.314 | 0.485 | 0.792 |
| Steamer | 549 | 69 | 26 | 83 | 6 | 0.259 | 0.305 | 0.463 | 0.767 |
| ESPN | 602 | 92 | 29 | 92 | 6 | 0.269 | 0.312 | 0.488 | 0.801 |
| ZiPS | 629 | 89 | 30 | 98 | 7 | 0.27 | 0.312 | 0.498 | 0.81 |
| PECOTA (BP) | 610 | 75 | 27 | 87 | 8 | 0.258 | 0.308 | 0.468 | 0.776 |
| Sporting News | 541 | 74 | 27 | 85 | 6 | 0.262 | 0.313 | 0.481 | 0.794 |
| Baseball America | 616 | 91 | 28 | 97 | 8 | 0.266 | 0.312 | 0.476 | 0.788 |
| Rotowire | 605 | 93 | 29 | 99 | 7 | 0.273 | 0.314 | 0.498 | 0.812 |
| MLB Yearbook | 548 | 77 | 26 | 83 | 6 | 0.27 | 0.312 | 0.489 | 0.801 |
| AVERAGE: | 587.2222222 | 82.88888889 | 27.66666667 | 91 | 6.666666667 | 0.266333333 | 0.311333333 | 0.482888889 | 0.793444444 |
This looks like a dip in his power from last year, but he also went on that incredible streak last year that statistically is difficult for him to repeat. That being said, 27-28 homers feels like a very fair assessment of what he can do. Going through the power data, it looks like ZiPS only has him at 30 because of how many AB’s they expect him to get (ZiPS is always on the higher side of PAs). Steamer seems to suggest a lot of pop as they are down lower in the ABs but still at 26 jacks.
For Cespedes, I would go with the mid to higher projections more than other players. With a player with Cespedes style profile, the projections are usually a bit conservative (this happens with players who hit more than 25 homers a year).
Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual
