Part of the Mets strength heading into camp is by May/June, the Mets should have three pitchers on the roster who could potentially close between Mejia, Familia and Parnell. Familia had his first full season last year and he clearly demonstrated that he knew what he was doing on the mound:
2014 Stats: 2-5, 5 SV, 76 G, 77.1 IP, 73 K, 32 BB, 1.18 WHIP, 2.21 ERA
By the end of the year, he was mostly a set-up man, but had some closing experience as well. His ERA was super-low, although his K/BB ratio was a bit higher than what you would like to see from a late bullpen pitcher (however his K/9 was close to what you want). Let’s take a look at his projections for next year:
PECOTA (BP): 3-3, 1 SV, 24 G, 58.2 IP, 55 K, 27 BB, 1.34 WHIP, 4.01 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 3-3, 7 SV, 66 IP, 55 K, 28 BB, 1.35 WHIP, 4.05 ERA
MLB.com: 3-2, 0 SV, 72 IP, 68 K, 27 BB, 1.24 WHIP, 3.25 ERA
ZiPS: 65 G, 65.1 IP, 63 K, 28 BB, 3.17 ERA
Steamer: 3-3, 6 SV, 55 G, 55 IP, 56 K, 23 BB, 3.55 ERA
ESPN: 5-3, 0 SV, 71 K, 1.33 WHIP, 3.00 ERA
Average: 3.4-2.8, 2.8 SV, 48 IP, 63.1 IP, 61.3 K, 26.6 BB, 1.32 WHIP, 3.51 ERA
The computers are split on his ERA and K’s. They are all convinced on an ERA regression, which is pretty typical after a sub 2.50 ERA year, but some are showing way more regression, which is why he averages out to a 3.51 ERA. They all show an equally large regression on WHIP, but are pretty constant on the amount of walks he’ll allow, so I guess the computers think he’ll give up more hits?
