Around this time every year, I wonder if I should go through this largely unscientific process of previewing each division and making predictions about who will make the playoffs, etc. I also realize each year that my desire to do this is completely correlated with where I think the Mets will end up. In years where the Mets look to do really well, I end up making 7 of these articles and spend a whole week going through each division and the playoffs. During years like this one, I end up putting everybody into one article as I just want the season to start already and for the Mets to prove me wrong.
That being said, lets step through each division and make predictions as to where teams will end up.
AL East:1. Baltimore Orioles
2. Toronto Blue Jays (1st Wild Card)
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. New York Yankees
5. Boston Red Sox
My gut is telling me this will be another big year for the Orioles. Their enemy this season will be the sophomore year of success playing mind games with the idea “can we repeat the performance”. Last year they pulled their talent together and they have a few more bats this year emerging to make a statement, the same can be said about their starting rotation, its emerging. The Blue Jays on paper, due to their age and experience project better stats than the Orioles this year but I’m always worried about what happens when a team plays with each other first season. The Rays will be the dark horse in this division. If Myers produces early and the rotation bounces back, they can easily take a Wild Card Spot or the division.
AL Central:
1. Detroit Tigers2. Cleveland Indians
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Minnesota Twins
The Tigers are healthier and stronger than last season, and that will be a problem for the entire division. Their rotation is as strong as any in the league and that lineup is formidable. I’m making the safe prediction that they will run away with the division. The Indians have an improved lineup, and may be the most improved team in the division, but they are not improved enough to dent the #1 spot. Here’s the kicker for the Central. The Indians, White Sox and Royals are close enough in talent (although they are a mixture of fading and rising) that no one out of the group will dominate the rest of the division. The only way someone else can arise from the division is to crush everyone else and rise to the Wild Card. If they perform as they stand, they will split the wins and no one advances.
AL West:
1. Los Angeles Angles
2. Oakland Athletics (2nd Wild Card)
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros
This is the Angels time to shine. They return with the same talent they had the year before but now with Josh Hamilton and they are one year removed from the large make over and all of the stress that comes with it. The rest of the division is tricky. I expect the Athletics to get the Wild Card just from the shear amount of talent on this team not many people (especially in fantasy for their pitchers) are paying attention to. However I can easily see the Rangers or even Mariners rising up. Unlike the AL Central, I think someone in this division will be clear cut enough to take the second wild card. The Astros will get beat up on the entire season.
NL East:1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves (1st Wild Card)
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. New York Mets
5. Miami Marlins
The top two teams in this division are easy to plan out. The Nationals are loaded with talent that is still emerging and will carry this division, the toughest in baseball, throughout the season. The Braves have an incredible outfield now in terms of hitting and their bullpen projects to be strong, so it safe to say they can take the Wild Card. Depending on how the other divisions do, it is possible to see someone else in this division taking the second wild card. I’m not buying into all of the hype around the Phillies yet. If Howard and Utley perform at a high level, then the Mets will have no chance out of the bottom 40%. But if the Phillies struggle at the plate, and Roy isn’t right in the head, and EVERYTHING goes right for the Mets, then maybe they can pull out of 4th place (more on that tomorrow).
NL Central:
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs
The NL Central will have a similar problem that the AL Central has. I feel right now the Reds have enough to take the second wild card (I don’t feel strong enough to predict this though, so I’m giving it to another division) but it is also conceivable that the Brewers improve (especially with the Lohse signing) and the Pirates improve. This division no longer has the Astros to beat up on, so the wins will be split more evenly. The Cardinals have enough to win but the question remains if there are enough wins left to get the second wild card spot. The NL East will be tough to get wins from, luckily the same can’t be said about the NL West.
NL West:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants (2nd Wild Card)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres
The Dodgers have so much talent, they win this division. The Giants have enough talent and pedigree, I feel compelled right now to rank them second and with the wild card but it the Diamondbacks can easily upseat them for that second spot. These three teams, remind me a lot of the NL East, a much weaker NL East, and will beat up on the Rockies and Padres throughout the season to pad their win totals.
Playoffs
WC: Braves Over Giants
WC: Blue Jays Over Athletics
ALDS: Angels Over Orioles
ALDS: Tigers Over Blue Jays
NLDS: Nationals Over Cardinals
NLDS: Braves Over Dodgers
ALCS: Tigers Over Angels
NLCS: Nationals Over Braves
World Series: Nationals Over Tigers
And with that, I guarantee that none of the above will happen because I said it.
