The NL West was a major surprise last season. At the start of the season it looked like it would be a three team race of the Dodgers/Rockies/Giants with the Padres and Diamondbacks looking in from the outside. It also looked like it was the Dodgers who had the early advantage. Then the surprise of the year (that within one game reduced itself to nothing) was the Padres who led the division for the majority of the season, lost it towards to the end and got into a three team race with the Giants and the Rockies. The Giants would go on to win the division (and the World Series) and the Rockies would lose out in the playoff race to the Padres. The Padres would then lose the play in situation with the Braves who would go into the playoffs. The moral of the story is that surprises happen which is why we play the games.
Anyway, this year looks to be a three team race again with the Giants vs the Rockies, the Dodgers sitting on the periphery with the Padres and the Diamondbacks sitting on the outside.
San Francisco Giants:
The World Series champions have the best rotation int he division. Like all teams with a strong rotation, they need just enough offense to get them through the season. Last year it was easy to mock the lineup but the lineup showed last year that they could surprise people with offense. If Posey has a big season again, and they get consistent offense from somewhere else, this team will be in the race all season long.
Colorado Rockies:
The Rockies were handicapped by critical injuries last season which held them back from taking over the division. They also have a strong pitching staff, and they have a strong lineup, probably the second best lineup in the Division. If another pitcher outside of Jimenez and De La Rosa steps up, then the Rockies will be in the race all season long.
Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers probably have the best lineup in the division, the question for them will be the rotation. Billingsley and Kershaw will be reliable, but the rest of the rotation is questionable for how good they could be. Similar to the Rockies, if someone could step up, like Kuroda here, and carry over for the bats, then they will be able to make this division into a three team race, if not, this division will come down to the Rockies and Dodgers.
San Diego Padres:
The Padres could surprise again, however it is unlikely. The Padres have a lot of young players in the lineup and in the rotation that were good last year, but they all need to repeat that in order the team to be good again this year. In other words, they have to hope that the rest of the league hasn't figured them out yet. They started to run into this at the end of last season, and it could come again strong this year. If these players can rise above this, then they will contend. If not, then they won't. Not having Gonzalez also hurts.
Arizona Diamondbacks:
They made some good moves this offeseason, it just isn't their time yet. They brought in people that want to win and they unloaded risky players like Reynolds that were very all or nothing. The rotation isn't there this season so it will be really difficult for them to compete in this division.
