It's that time of year again when I get really hypocritical and do what I what I say other's shouldn't do: Try to predict the season without knowing other teams that well. Realizing that this is hypocritical, I'm not going to predict finishes like I have done in previous years. For me to predict finishes, especially in the AL West, my weakest division, would essentially be me saying “Hey, here's everything that is being talked about this division. I'm only going to extrapolate out of what is said nationally, and not spend the hours of research looking into every team and the histories of their players”. Instead what I will do, is talk about the odds of each team winning the division, what has to go right, and what could go wrong.
The AL West finds itself back in a familiar position with no one team coming off of a dominating off-season. The Rangers return with their powerful lineup, but shotty rotation. The Athletics return with their powerful rotation, and an average lineup. The Angels happen to be above average and both, and the Mariners have King Felix and Ichiro….and it starts to fall apart from there.
The Oakland Athletics:
They have the pitching. The question for them is if the lineup can score runs. Mets fans from last year will remember that for the better part of the season, the starting pitching on the Mets was phenomenal. The bats just didn't hit enough to back up the pitching (nothing hurts more losing a game 1-0, 2-1, because the offense couldn't get it done at the plate). If the A's get some offense surprises (Willingham anyone?) during the season, look for them to have a legitimate shot at the title. If not, it will be a frustrating season, because that pitching should carry them.
The Texas Rangers:
A big part of the Ranger push last season was Wilson and Lee at the top of that rotation, and then the Texas bats just bruising everyone up. Now with Lee gone, and no one really to replace him, the Rangers will have to rely on the rest of that rotation to make it through the season. The Rangers remind me a bit of the Phillies before they got dominating with pitching, in that the Rangers have enough offense that they just need quality starts out of their pitchers, and they will win ball games. So for Texas, if the rest of the rotation (Lewis, Hunter, Holland, Harrison) can get those QS's, then this team will play deep into September. If not, or if the offense doesn't click, the team will disappear quick.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim:
As for balance in the division, the Angels win. Between Santana, Weaver and Haren, they have a solid starting of the rotation. That type of rotation becomes more dangerous in the post-season, when 4 and 5 don't matter much. Their lineup isn't bad, but it isn't great. They will need one or two guys in the lineup to have a surprise season. If their forth starter, Kazmir, has an old style Kazmir season, then this team suddenly starts to look a lot better. The other problem for the Angels is the bullpen is a bit of a question mark.
The Seattle Mariners:
They have Felix Hernandez. Outside of that there are a lot of questions. Can Bedard come back? Can the lineup hit for power? Can the lineup score runs? The Mariners didn't bring a whole lot in this off-season in terms of position players, and they were one of the teams that needed to to have a good shot. What is working for the Mariners is that this division is essentially open, so as long as they don't allow themselves to be the punching bag, like how they are projected to be, then they could make noise. I just really doubt it.
In conclusion:
This division has three teams in it that can make a run. Because of that, plus the division only having 4 teams, this division is prime for any one of these teams that get off to a hot stretch at the end of summer to swoop in and take the division.
