I mean this in the nicest way possible. The Mets need to step on the necks of the Reds today. If you go 2-1 the entire season, you will make the playoffs, but there is something to be said about building momentum, and the biggest building piece for that is a three game sweep. The Mets will try to start the season 3-0 this afternoon against the Reds. The Marlins were able to start 3-0 with a sweep over the Nationals yesterday and the Braves failed to start 3-0 with a loss yesterday handed by the Phillies. The Mets will be sending Oliver Perez to the mound and he will have to battle with Bronson Arroyo.
I was first very worried when I heard Perez would be starting in Cinncy, the park allows a lot of homers, and so does Perez, not a good combination. However, looking at some numbers, I feel a little better. In 2008 Perez went 1-1 against the Reds in 2 games with a 3.75 ERA over 12 innings pitched where we allowed 6 runs (5 earned), 7 BB and 14 K. In his Career in Cinncy, he is 4-2 over 10 games where he has allowed 9 homers, over 53 IP, and a 3.91 ERA. I thought the homers vs games number would be much worse. Here are some numbers teh Reds have put up against him.
Phillips 3-13, 2 BB
Encarnacion 2-10, 2B, 4 BB
Votto 1-6
Harriston 2-3
Bruce 0-3
Gonzalez 1-9, 2B
The key for Oliver is to have faith in his pitches and faith in his defense. We have seen time and time again when the defense makes a mistake bhind Perez, heg gets flustered and he starts to make a lot of mistakes. And of course, the other thing to remember is one can flip a coin and then decide off of that if Oliver will be effective or not. The Mets will have to back him up with some runs today.
Runs could be tough for the Mets today because they do not hit Arroyo well at all. Last year he went 2-0 in as many starts against the Amazins with a 1.69 ERA, 8 H, 3BB, and 13 K. His career numbers agains the the Mets are also pretty good as he has gone 4-2 over 7 games and has a 3.48 ERA. Here are the Mets lines against the Bronson:
Delgado 4-21, HR
Sheffield 8-23, 2B, HR
Reyes 5-19, 3 2B, HR
Beltran 4-16, 2 2B, HR, 3B
Castillo 2-5
Perez 1-2
The Mets have an interesting trend agaisnt Bronson. Although they don't hit often, they hit hard. Look at Beltran, all of his hits are XBH. Reyes has 4 of 5 of hits being XBH. The key for the Mets bats is the same as yesterday but intensified today. They need to hit with RISP and today they need to because they probably won't get a lot of hits off of Arroyo (but its always possible for them to have a hit parade!) Lets Go Mets! Sweep the Reds!
