213 Miles From Shea

As a slightly different way to gauge progress through the off-season, every so often we’ll take a look at the Mets starting lineup/rotation/bullpen to see how the team is progressing going into Spring. This is a good week to start since all of the Free Agents have declared and the Mets (or really anyone) has yet to make a move that would change this in any way.

Here are your 2014 New York Mets:

Catcher: Travis d’Arnaud
First Base: Ike Davis / Josh Satin
Second Base: Daniel Murphy
Shortstop: Omar Quintanilla / Ruben Tejada
Third Base: David Wright
Left Field: Eric Young Jr. / Matt den dekker
Center Field: Juan Lagares
Right Field: Lucas Duda

Starting Rotation:
Jon NieseZack Wheeler
Dillon Gee
Jeremy Hefner
Carlos Torres / Jenry Mejia

Bullpen:
Bobby Parnell
Vic Black
Scott Rice
Carlos Torres / Jenry Mejia
Gonzalez German
Scott Atchison

The Mets didn’t lose too much by way of free agency. The big piece lost is LaTroy Hawkins who they hope to resign. This roster looks slightly better than end of the season because Parnell is back from injury a long with a few others. That’s pretty much it from the positives. The other way to look at it are all of the question marks:
– 2 Holes in the rotation
– At Least One Hole in the Outfield- Questions at First Base (and moving Duda would make 2 Holes in the Outfield or moving Murphy would make a hole at Second)
– Shortstop needs an upgrade

Right now it is very difficult to make a batting order because of the position battles. If Young gets LF, then he hits leadoff. If den dekker does, then Lagares gets lead off. If the lineup has den dekker, then dekker or Tejada battle for the bottom part of the lineup. If Satin is in the lineup, then first base hits much later. Hopefully the Mets make a move or two so there becomes a clear Leadoff and a clear cleanup hitter (which right now is either Duda or a prayer with Davis)

Lets see what happens over the next few weeks!

The Blue Jays last year depleted their farm system between a trade to the Mets for R.A. Dickey and a trade with the Marlins for the majority of their roster. This year, the Blue Jays are looking to use free agency more as a route to improve their team (Source).

The Free Agency field this year is packed with buyers and players. However, there are a lot of teams this year that can dump a lot of money to get players (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Rangers). A few years ago, the Yankees were able to set the tone of the market by outbidding everyone else for major players (the year they picked up CC) but this year with so many of the big market large finance (ie not Mets) clubs ready to go after big pieces, its crowding a lot of teams (like the Mets, Blue Jays) who have multiple holes to fill to the next Free Agent tier.

The Mets have an advantage in that they have some payroll room to buy players, but they also have several pieces they can ship out to other teams in trade.

This is where the Blue Jays come in.

The Blue Jays have very little flexibility in the trade market. If they are going to trade, they need to sell a major player, like a Jose Bautista or Jose Reyes. If they could bring back a major leaguer and a couple of prospects for one or both of those players, they will have the ability to make other trades later or fill in multiple holes so they can focus on what might be a high bidding free agency market.

On the Mets side, the Blue Jays have what they really need, an outfielder that can hit for power. The Blue Jays also have Jose Reyes who is not the same Jose Reyes as the one who left, but would still be a huge upgrade compared to the SS situation we have going on now.

Holding back a move would be the trade talks from last year. Specifically, the highest level prospect the Mets would give up in a trade might be d’Arnaud who was acquired from the Blue Jays. However with Davis who could be moved with Montero, maybe the Mets and Blue Jays could make a deal that helps both teams in the long and short run.

There has been a good amount of Curtis Granderson news in the last week:

• Curtis Granderson could consider taking the 1 year offer from the Yankees
• The Yankees do not want Granderson to take the qualifying offer
• The Phillies could look to Free Agency to upgrade at CF which includes players like Granderson
• The Mets have some interest in Granderson
• Both Chicago Teams are interesting in Granderson

As far as the Mets focus on Granderson goes, I think it is deeply tied to the Ike Davis market.

If the Ike Davis market goes towards a SS or leadoff hitter (like Aoki) then Granderson would make a lot more sense for the Mets.

If the Davis market though becomes power bat heavy, not depending on the position, then I think the Mets may lose interest in Granderson. This could mean a certain player from the Rockies who plays SS (which I highly, highly doubt will happen and is a pie in the sky pipe dream) or a much more likely situation with Blue Jays or Angels. In this case, the Mets would spend money to fill in SS or the rotation.

I guess its a little misleading to say this opens the off-season since the Mets have already moved players through waivers (and have had them claimed by other teams), taken care of the managerial staff and have worked on the 40-man a bit.

Or what I really mean to say is by not putting the players names in the title, I really am just encouraging link bait, but whatever.

Anyway the Mets signed two players yesterday and both are expected to be invited to Spring Training.

First up is Joel Carreno, a 26 year old pitcher out of the Toronto system. He had a good year in the minors pitching over 60 innings in 50 games with a 2.43 record and a 2.43 ERA. This included a 12.2 K/9 rate and a 3.75 K to BB rate. He struggled in 2012 with the Blue Jays in the majors but overall between 2011 and 2012 didn’t do too bad with a 4.06 ERA and a 7.2 K/9 rate. He will look to compete for the 2014 Mets bullpen.

Next up is Anthony Seratelli at age 30. He’s a switch hitter from the Royal’s farm system and had a .273 BA, .393 OBP with 11 homers with the triple A team last year. He looks to compete for a spot on the bench on the major league squad or an emergency call up in the 2014 year.

Originally, I never considered Granderson ever becoming a Met (even though he does meet the Mets needs).

Tim Dierkes, the guru at MLBTradeRumors posted his annual Top 50 Free Agent list this past week with predictions where players will end up, and he feels the Mets will end up with Granderson. Tim has a wealth of knowledge, so he’s a voice on the internet I generally feel I can trust.

There are reports now though out of the Daily News that Granderson is considering accepting the qualifying offer from the Yankees (1 year, 14.1 million), which would throw a wrench in these hypothetical Mets plans. According to the article he cites Giradi’s new contract as a reason to come back. He also talks about possibly wanting to play for his home town of Chicago.

So really no Mets news. But it was non-Met official driven, so that’s not too surprising.

Baseball America released their annual review of the Mets farm system with the top 10 list. You can read the article here.

Anyway the list is:

1. Noah Syndegaard
2. Travis d’Arnaud
3. Rafael Montero
4. Dominic Smith
5. Kevin Plawecki
6. Wilmer Flores
7. Amed Rosario
8. Brandon Nimmo
9. Gavin Cecchini
10. Jake deGrom

Interestingly, only3 of the 10 players on the list are pitchers, and all three are right handers. In a normal theme for the Mets in the last couple of years, the vast majority of players on this list, especially the position players, are in the low minors. Smith was the first round pick last year and there is a lot of buzz around him, but he is extremely young.

The crunch on the 40-man roster has started today as the Mets have activated 7 players from the 60-Day DL back to the 40-man. The following players were activated:

1. Ike Davis
2. Josh Edgin
3. Matt Harvey
4. Jeremy Hefner
5. Jenry Mejia
6. Bobby Parnell
7. Scott Rice

This should be evened out by the seven free agents the Mets are about to lose off of the 40-man:

1. David Aardsma
2. Tim Byrdak
3. Pedro Feliciano
4. Frank Francisco
5. Aaron Harang
6. LaTroy Hawkins
7. Daisuke Matsuzaka

The Mets would like to get Hawkins back and the Mets will probably drop some players on the 40-man. The Mets created some room on the 40-man by outrighting Greg Burke and Sean Henn. In addition Baxter was claimed by the Dodgers and Carson by the Angels.

This will probably be enough to create room to add key players to the 40 man from the farm system to protect them in the Rule V draft but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more players go to create more room on the 40-man.

You can make the very strong argument that the Hot Stove has been lit, especially for the Mets, for a while now (and I’d actually make an argument that with constant news coverage of typical “off-season” stories that the Hot Stove never really goes out during the year) but with the Red Sox winning the World Series last night the off season is now in full swing.

The Mets already took care of one of two of their primary concerns for the off-season:

1. Extend Terry Collins
2. Matt Harvey to have surgery

With that off the books, here is the next set of questions for the Mets:

1. Davis+Duda+Satin = 1 almost decent firstbasemen. Considering that Duda or Davis could be healthy all season, right now one could assume they would produce near the same amount. So what happens to the other? Could they be moved in a trade?
2. Corner Outfield: Mets could use a true clean up hitter OR a true lead-off hitter. OR both.
3. Shortstop: The Internal options fell way short of expectations last year.
4. Veteran Starter: With Harvey out, the Mets rotation becomes that much weaker. In addition to the yearly stacking up of internal options for starters, the Mets could use a dependable starter in the rotation, one who as early as Spring Training instill good habits in the Mets young crop of starters.
5. Can the Mets resign Hawkins? Who leads up to the closer?
6. The 40-Man crunch the Mets are currently in.

Well, I’m curious to see how these questions are answered in the upcoming months.

Almost every Mets related site this weekend posted a story about how the Mets are about to face a 40 -Man Roster cut. In case you didn’t read any of it, the incredibly short version is the Mets have 8 players coming off of the 60 day DL list in November and 8 free agents which means their 40 man is already set. This leaves zero room for the Mets to protect prospects. There is a lot of speculation of cuts (like Valdespin) but the Mets are running out of room.

All caught up? Good.

I’m wondering if this will push the Mets to make a trade. The players the are crowding the 40-man (from the side of being on the roster and trying to get on) are of similar caliber. Captain Kirk and Lutz are good examples of this. They have potential, but not a lot of ceiling and are infected with an odd emotional attachment.

There’s probably not much the Mets could get in a trade for some of these players, but trading where we give up more 40-man players than we receive will help this problem go away.

The other, more optimistic, way to look at is this forces the Mets early in November to make a trade for a big player, or right before Rule V draft in December. This would involve trading one of Niese/Gee and one of Duda/Davis. A trade good also provide the spark to the fan base because right now it’s all talk about bringing in other talent, and frankly, starting to get boring.

Two developing stories could impact the Mets off-season plans.

With Harvey down, the Mets are in the market for a veteran pitcher because any internal options for the Mets would involve rookies. While rookies are great for 2015, they could use a guiding voice in 2014 and the Mets could use some additional help in 2014 if they want to be a surprise contender. Anyway Arroyo reported yesterday that he doesn’t expect to receive a qualifying offer. If he had such an offer from the Reds, then that means negotiations with him would have to start at 14 million, or 13 a year for two years. He will still cost a chunk of change but this drastically drops his leverage (which in my opinion would be a huge overvalue).

Rumors are also swirling that the Rays will try to move Price this off-season. The Mets are not in the market for Price, and would have to give up way too much to potentially get him (and that’s with me over valuing our own prospects). With the price for Price so high, that could make the Mets look like a more reasonable option to work with for a trade.