213 Miles From Shea

According to Roto World, Stephen Drew, Kendrys Morales and Ervin Santana may wait until after the June Draft to sign in order to increase their options. At that point, teams would not need to forfeit a pick to sign these players.

Roto World also admits this could be the work the agents, trying to drive up the pressure to get them signed now.

I can see how this could be an advantage to open up more teams to these players, especially if a team loses a player to injury between now and then, but this type of move is really done by players at the end of their careers, mainly pitchers, trying to cut down on the work load and bring in fresh legs (really arms) into the second half of the season. I don’t expect these three to do this because they are all just at their prime, and since most of them (Morales and Drew) are probably looking at 1 or 2 year deals, they need to put in work to get ready for the next off season.

We’ll see how this plays out. I think at least two of these players sign by the end of the week.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

The Mets have three players all aiming for the final part of the rotation. Yesterday we looked at John Lannan, today we look at Daisuke Matsuzaka. On the 26th, we’ll look at Mejia, the other contender for this spot.

Daisuke was an interesting addition to the team last year. He struggled when he pitched slow, when he picked up the pace, he showed some progress. What makes him difficult for the Mets is that he can opt out of his contract if he doesn’t make the major league roster, if he wants to, which cuts into the depth idea. Anyway, lets look at the stats:

2013: 7 G, 7 GS, 38.2 IP, 16 BB, 33 K, 3 – 3, 4.42 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.68 K/9

ESPN: 7 G, 7 GS, 41.0 IP, 19 BB, 30 K, 2 W, 5.27 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.59 K/9
MLB: 50.0 IP, 21 BB, 2-5, 4.86 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Steamer:5 G, 5 GS,  29.0 IP, 2-2, 4.31 ERA, 7.21 K/9
Oliver: 20 G, 20 GS, 104.0 IP, 5-6, 4.57 ERA, 6.90 K/9
PECOTA: 22.9 G, 22.9 GS, 119.7 IP, 6.2-8.5, 49 BB, 107 K, 4.00 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 8.0 K/9

Average: 13.7 G, 13.7 GS, 68.7 IP, 30 BB, 68.5 K, 4.6 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, 7.1 K/9

The programs are split on the idea of how much playing time he will get this season. Outside of that, the numbers look pretty much like what you would expect. His ERA averages above what is considered an average ERA. His WHIP is below average and K/9 is above average. He’s not that exciting here, but he’s going for the fifth spot. If he put up the numbers in the PECOTA projection, that would be fantastic. Lets see what happens.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Today we take a break from batters to start a two part mini-series on the fifth spot of the rotation. Today we will look at John Lannan and tomorrow Daisuke. We’ll then cover Mejia on the 26th. Anyway, Lannan can walk away from his deal if he doesn’t make the major league roster by the end of March. Lannan, Daisuke join Farnsworth and Valverde all as former major leaguers trying to find spots on the major league roster. Let’s take a look at his projections:

2013: 14 G, 14 GS, 74.1 IP, 3-6, 5.33 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 4.60 K/9, 27 BB, 38 K

ESPN: 13 G, 13 GS, 75.0 IP, 4 W, 4.68 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.56 K/9, 29 BB, 38 K
MLB: 75.0 IP, 4-5, 4.32 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 30 BB, 50 K
Steamer: PROJECTS ONLY ONE INNING OF WORK. LEFT OUT.
Oliver: 25 G, 25 GS, 141.0 IP, 8-8, 4.46 ERA, 4.52 K/9
PECOTA: 3 G, 3 GS, 16.0 IP, 0.8 -1.5, 4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 5 BB, 10 K

Average: 13.6 G, 13.6 GS, 76.75 IP, 4.2-4.75, 4.48 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 4.83 K/9, 21.3 BB, 32.6 K

Averaging this was tough because although projection websites are consistent for hitters, they aren’t so much for pitchers. I included Oliver even though it is a bit high on the amount of games because PECOTA was a bit low. Lannan averages out to slightly less than a third of a season pitching about 75/76 innings. He projects to be slightly less than a .500 pitcher with an ERA that is almost exactly average and a WHIP that suggests that there would be very few clean innings.

If this what we got out of a fifth starter until Syndegaard arrives, I’d be happy with that (although I would still hope for Mejia).

Remember a few days ago when the Vine of Steven Matz spinning things started to go around twitter?

Well it was turned into a gif, uploaded to Reddit via Imgur and now has a high amount of upvotes. For those of you who are unfamiliar with Reddit, images, posts, links etc with the most upvotes move towards the front page of the website. People who upload content want their content to go to the front page because the closer to the top it is, it garners more exposure and more upvotes (which become karma on the website, people try to acquire as much of that as they can). When I wrote this article, Matz’s gif is on the second page, which is a really big deal.

There’s just very little discussion on both websites as to who the spinner is. Also there are some discussions about the dude in the background, who happens to be deGrom.

So there you go. The Mets have an internet star.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Today we conclude our three part series within this series about the Mets first base race. Ike Davis and Lucas Duda are competing for the top job and today’s candidate, Josh Satin, looks to be the platoon partner. Lets see what he’s projected to do:

2013: 190 AB, 23 R, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 1 SB, .279 BA, .376 OBP, .405 SLG

ESPN: 202 AB, 25 R, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 1 SB, .238 BA, .343 OBP, .351 SLG
MLB: 225 AB, 24 R, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 1 SB, .262 BA, .349 OBP, .369 SLG
Steamer: 93 PA, 10 R, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 1 SB, .253 BA, .337 OBP, .376 SLG
Oliver: Automatically adjusts to 600 PA, left off for average integrity
PECOTA: 266 PA, 231 AB, 28 R, 6 HR, 30 RBI, 0 SB, .254 BA, .346 OBP, .391 SLG

Average: 179.5 PA, 219.3 AB, 21.8 R, 4 HR, 20.25 RBI, .251 BA, .343 OBP, .372 SLG

His numbers are projected to be similar to Duda with a higher average a much smaller sample size. Steamer is super down on Satin’s playing time this season.

Rumors started to emerge yesterday that the Mariners will try to move one of their middle infielders, probably Nick Franklin, the 22 year old shortstop, before the end of Spring. The Mets and Mariners were possible trade partners earlier this winter when they were looking for a first basemen. Since then, they added several players that can play that position, so that is not a need or want in a trade anymore. The Mariners are looking for young pitching, something the Mets have a lot of.

The debate on Metsblog yesterday is what that young pitching looks like. Is it deGrom type of player? Vic Black? (That’s what Cerrone thinks). Franklin is not worth Vic Black, who has an important role on this team this year.

First, is Franklin worth acquiring? The best projection metric to use here is Oliver, that automatically gives each player 600 AB’s. Franklin is projected to have a .244 BA, and improvement of last year’s .225 BA (Steamer has him at .240 in 2014) and a .329 OBP. It also projects him to have some pop, 17 homers in 600 PA (Steamer 8 in 326). This is based on the pop he showed last year hitting 12 in 420 AB’s.

My first reaction is that Franklin is not worth deGrom, in that this is not the time for the Mets to give up young pitching for marginally better pieces. I still think that’s my opinion, although I admit Franklin is intriguing. I rather the Mets not make a trade until they are ready to bundle prospects together to bring in a proven, significant piece (like when they traded for Carlos Delgado years ago).

I wouldn’t be upset if the Mets acquire Franklin at a reasonable price, however I imagine it will be difficult to make that price reasonable.

The Braves have gone on an extension frenzy this off-season that continued with the signing of Andrelton Simmons today. The extensions this year are as follows:

• Andrelton Simmons – 7 Years, 58 million (arb. years + 2 Free Agent Years)
• Freddie Freeman – 8 Years, 135 million (arb years + 5 Free Agent Years)
• Craig Kimbrel – 4 Years, 42 Million (arb years + 1 Free Agent Year + 13 million option)
• Julio Teheran – 6 Years, 32.4 Million (arb years + 1 Free Agent Year, + 12 million option)
• Jason Heyward – 2 Years, 13.3 Million (arb years)

In the deals, the Braves committed 280 million to five young players. Some of the deals are very smart, some are a bit dangerous. First, as a caveat,technically Heyward’s deal is not an extension as the Braves purchased him out of his arbitration years, not beyond team control (thus what the word extension refers to).

Anyway, a deal like Julio Teheran, although very young, controls a pitcher at a very low price. If he hits the market in five years, and he stays healthy all that time, he could be looking at a much larger contract than what he is owed in 2019 or the 12 million option for 2020. But that’s the risk for the Braves, that he stays healthy for 6 years, which is tough for a pitcher to do.

Same deal with Simmons. He could still be a Super II player this season. If he projects like the Braves expect him to, then this could be a very cheap deal for the Braves and provide stability in the infield (especially with Freeman locked up). But its early. There are way too many examples to list of players with tools that show them off in the rookie year, and never return to that. In this case Simmons becomes expensive.

The deal with the most risk is Freeeman, because it goes well beyond the arbitration years, but also the financial commitment. Freeman is a good player, but hasn’t established himself yet. David Wright signed a large contract extension last year, but that was after a smaller contract that allowed him to prove himself.

But this shows the changing landscape of contracts. The steal the Mets got on Wright and Reyes to get them out of their arb. years will probably never happen again. The Mets are probably watching all of this closely as it is unlikely the will be able to sign d’Arnaud, Wheeler, Harvey and Syndegaard to deals like Wright, Reyes and Niese.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Today we continue our look at first base. Yesterday we looked at Ike Davis, today we will look at his main competition, and also outfield competition in Lucas Duda. (Tomorrow we will look at Josh Satin). Anyway let’s look at Duda’s projections:

2013: 318 AB, 42 R, 15 HR, 0 SB .223 BA, .352 OBP, .415 SLG

ESPN: 346 AB, 45 R, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 1 SB, .249 BA, .357 OBP, .408 SLG
MLB: 400 AB, 50 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .245 BA, .345 OBP, .403 SLG
Steamer: 342 PA, 37 R, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 2 SB, .237 BA, .334 OBP, .404 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 65 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 3 SB, .217 BA, .327 OBP, .372 SLG
PECOTA: 331 PA, 287 AB, 38 R, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB, .239 BA, .333 OBP, .415 SLG

Average: 424 PA, 344 AB, 47 R, 13.8 HR, 49 RBI, 2 SB, .237 BA, .320 OBP, .404

Basically, the models really don’t support Duda over Davis at all. They suggest that Duda will not have the power that Davis has next season. Oliver projects all batters to 600 plate appearances, which is why the numbers seem higher than other models, but even that one slams Duda with batting average. If these projections hold true, it is also difficult to see how Duda fits into the outfield also. Duda is in better shape this spring, so the games in March will matter.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Today, tomorrow and the day after, we’ll look at the three likely candidates for significant play time at first base: Ike Davis, Lucas Duda and Josh Satin, starting with the most likely to get the job, Ike Davis. Short story about Davis if you’ve been under a rock for the last two years, starts off slow and then gets it together late. 2012 was better than 2013 as he was able to get it together in a big way at the end of the season. There was a lot of talk about moving him this off-season, but that didn’t happen. Anyway, he’s here, still has a lot of potential, and is scheduled to take a lot of AB’s this spring. Lets take a look at his projections:

2013: 317 AB, 37 R, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 4 SB, .205 BA, .326 OBP, .334 SLG

ESPN: 441 AB, 64 R, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB, .234 BA, .339 OBP, .422 SLG
MLB: 400 AB, 50 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .245 BA, .345 OBP, .403 SLG
Steamer: 409 PA, 47 R, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 2 SB, .238 BA, .340 OBP, .439 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 68 R, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 3 SB, .216 BA, .327 OBP, .398 SLGPECOTA: 472 PA, 410 AB, 57 R, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 2 SB, .236 BA, .330 OBP, .428 SLG

Average: 493.7 PA, 417 AB, 57.2 R, 18.6 HR, 62.8 RBI, 2.4 SB, .234 BA, .336 OBP, .418 SLG

The computers and projecting a slight bounce back in Davis’s stats and are also projecting him to split time at first place. The question is will he steadily put these numbers up all season or will he boom and bust like he has in his career. If the latter is the case, which it probably will be, if the boom is longer than the bust, then he could easily break these projections on the high side.