213 Miles From Shea

Is Stephen Drew different enough from Ruben Tejada to warrant a contract?

The debate around signing Drew centers on that pivotal question. Fangraphs has Steamer and Oliver projections for both Drew and Tejada posted already. Let’s take some time to pour over the data:

Stephen Drew:
Steamer: 530 AB, 13 HR, 68 R, 6 SB, .232 BA, .314 OBP, .378 SLG, 2.0 WAROliver: 534 AB, 16 HR, 66 R, 5 SB, .230 BA, .308 OBP, .390 SLG, 1.9 WAR

Ruben Tejada:
Steamer: 469 AB, 3 HR, 53 R, 6 SB, .260 BA, .317 OBP, .339 SLG, 1.6 WAR
Oliver: 547 AB, 2 HR, 54 R, 6 SB, .239 BA, .289 OBP, .305 SLG, 0.4 WAR

For Drew, the two models are in a lot of agreement. Oliver suggests slightly more power while Steamer suggests he’ll get on base more, and a slightly higher WAR.

For Tejada, there is a good bit of variance in the data. Steamer has Tejada is an almost platoon situation or missing a large swath of playing time but has him performing higher at batting average and on base thus a much higher WAR. The WAR suggested by Steamer is close to that of Drew. Oliver disagrees, suggesting a rough season for Tejada. Oliver and Steamer did the same for Davis, with Steamer suggesting a higher WAR for Davis playing less time during the season than in the Oliver projection. (Link for those who want to see the data).

In either case, Drew projects to be a better player than Tejada even though Drew’s numbers are not that great. Knowing that, the Mets need to be careful to overpay too much to land Drew. It is a calming thought that the models for Drew are pretty similar. His career trends seem to pan out to similar results despite the different calculations. I was already in camp Drew before looking at the numbers, but now I’m really in camp Drew.

The Mets have been linked to just about every team this off season that could be in the market for a First Basemen.

At the start of the off season, it looked like the Mets might try to bundle Davis or Duda with either a young starter or another player (Murphy) to get a big name bat for the outfield or short stop. After the Mets lost out on Peralta, it looked liked the trade route would be for a short stop and free agency for the outfield. The Mets were able to fill the outfield by two free agency signings (Granderson, Young) and their other need of starter by free agency (Colon). The last big piece the Mets are looking for is a short stop, possibly in Stephen Drew. However, since Drew is not a top ten short stop, they don’t want to commit a number of years for Drew or a large contract, especially if they are still carrying Davis.

The Orioles are on the inaction side of the off season boat. The deal with Balfour fell through and they traded away Jim Johnson. Their primary needs are a starter and a closer, with either an outfield or first base bat as the next need. The starter market is still alive, but outside of Arroyo, the market will require the Orioles to give up a draft pick, something they are reluctant to do. If it comes down to it, my gut says the Orioles will give up a draft pick for a starter, and not a position player. This takes the Orioles, at least temporarily, out of the running for Cruz and Morales.

Duda, Davis and Murphy on the Mets make sense for the Orioles.

JJ Hardy, Rodriguez, and Britton make sense for the Mets.

The problem is coming down to how the teams value their players.

The Mets have a high regard for Murphy, as they should. It is hard to find a consistent hitting second basemen, which is why the Mets asking price for Murphy is incredibly high. The Orioles have high regards for Hardy, as it is hard to find a power hitting short stop. With the Granderson signing, the Mets trading for Hardy no longer makes too much sense. He would cost too much in a trade and doesn’t help the Mets leadoff search.

So for the Mets it comes down to Rodriguez and Britton. The Orioles are high on Rodriguez, so are the Mets. This where the deal breaks down. (The rest is now speculation). The Orioles probably want either Davis/Duda + prospect or just Murphy. The Mets are looking to just move Davis.

I know I’m cycling the same Hot Stove show from SNY this week, but I agree that Britton makes sense here. Britton is coming off of a down year like Davis. When it comes to prospects and players living up to their original ceilings, a Britton / Davis trade in the long run makes sense. The Orioles have had success with another player like Davis, Chris Davis and turned him into all-star. The Mets are about enter a young arm evolution, and could use Britton.

Here’s hoping something happens.

I was at a Modell’s a couple of weeks ago and bumped into this:

It’s unusual to see Mets Black Name and Number T’s recently (although I do see them more often then black jerseys), but his one is different. Generally the inside of Mets is Blue, or the Mets use the whole Orange/Blue/White Template.

I have seen misprint shirts in the past, but there was a whole rack of these shirts, so I’m assuming it is is a fashion jersey.

(For those wondering, this was at the Modell’s on RT 22 in NJ across from the Best Buy)

Fangraphs.com features two different prediction programs (Steamer and Oliver) to project stats for the 2014 season. You can take a look at Davis’s projections here and Duda’s here. Below are some highlights:

Lucas Duda Projection:Steamer: 277 AB, 10 HR, 35 R, .237 BA, .334 OBP, .404 SLG, 0.3 WAR
Oliver: 505 AB, 18 HR, 67 R, .222 BA, .338 OBP, .378 SLG, 0.9 WAR

Ike Davis Projection:Steamer: 352 AB, 17 HR, 48 R, .238 BA, .340 OBP, .439 SLG, 1.4 WAR
Oliver: 510 AB, 21 HR, 67 R, .214 BA, .325 OBP, .390 SLG, 0.9 WAR

Let’s first look at the Oliver projections. In terms of WAR, Oliver doesn’t see any difference between Davis and Duda. They have similar projections for the amount time played at first, similar homer totals (slight advantage to Davis), identical run predictions, similar batting average and OBP (with a slight advantage to Duda) and similar slugging with an advantage to Davis. If the Oliver model holds true, then this supports the idea that it doesn’t really matter who the Mets start off at first, that both players are on a rather similar trajectory right now. In this scenario, Davis defense becomes an advantage and Davis’ late start mentality is a disadvantage. To sum up, between Davis and Duda, its a wash.

The Steamer projection disagrees, mainly due to playing time. It predicts 277 AB for Duda and 352 for Davis, in other words, both become platoon players. With that Davis hits seven more homers and slight advantages BA and then OBP. Davis does project to have a higher SLG. Even though Davis has 75 more AB’s in the Steamer model, he is projected to have a 1.4 WAR instead of Duda’s 0.3, a huge difference. Steamer projects more wins by Davis in about 150 less AB’s than the the Oliver model does. If the Steamer model pans out, then Davis is actually the go to first basemen, probably in a platoon with a complement bat like Satin.

Interesting food for thought on a snowday.

The baseball hot stove is about to break out of its figurative and literal cold snap (it’s pretty cold out here in the North East today) as the calendar looks to the first complete week of 2013. Generally the market goes cold between Christmas and New Years, and it did again this year but it seemed a little colder and longer than usual. This is my personal conjecture but I believe it was because:

• An unusually busy week before the winter meetings made the market move faster this year at an early date, possibly due to how late Thanksgiving was.
• Christmas and New Years this year landed in such a way that the days before Christmas and the days after New Years (like today) stretched the “break” to over two weeks
• Tanaka was finally posted. His signing is logging the free agent market

Despite the coolness of the stove, the Pirates were able to acquire a first basemen, which puts the Mets in a bind because its one less suitor for Davis (and on top of that, I thought Davis would be a nice fit in Pittsburgh). Anyway this leaves the Brewers and the Orioles left as possible landing spots for Davis.

The Brewers have been linked to Davis several times this off season. First for Aoki, who was then traded away and later for Thornberg, who the Brewers are high on.

Rumors with the Orioles have started to swirl to a vague rumor that Oriole execs are pouring over medical records for a trade. The Orioles are also a possible landing spot for Morales, who would then make Davis redundant. Mets Hot Stove took up a possible Davis to the Orioles trade last night and talked about how Britton would make sense in a deal. Both Britton and Davis are former top prospects coming off down years with potential. A swap could work out. Britton also projects to what the Mets want (young pitching).

Trading for Davis makes sense for the Orioles because they could use a bat with pop and they are reluctant to give up a draft pick that signing a player like Morales or Cruz would require. Since the Balfour mishandling, there is also pressure to make a move.

Finally, an interesting note for the Brewers is they are the only team not to sign a free agent yet this off season.

Still, as the weeks move on, it could become a reality that Davis comes to spring training and either has to beat out a Duda/Satin platoon (or join the platoon himself) or raises his value to be traded in the spring.

In 2013 the Mets traded Collin McHugh, spot starter specialist via the minor league system, to the Rockies for Eric Young Jr. The Mets got a player who is one of the closest players they have to a lead-off hitter, and lead off a good amount last year.

Collin McHugh for the Rockies pitched in 4 major league games, pitching 19.0 innings allowing 21 ER with a 1.842 WHIP. In the Colorado system, McHugh pitched 9 games for AAA totaling 46.2 innings with an ERA of 4.63. With those numbers McHugh was DFA’d today. (It should be noted that overall in the minors with the Mets included he had a significantly better 3.42 ERA with a 8.0 K/9)

Young hit .251 for the Mets over 374 AB with 18 2B, 4 3B and a homer while stealing 38 bases on his way to leading the league with 46 stolen bases. His numbers were slightly better (.254) as a lead off hitter.

This results in another smart trade for Sandy Alderson where the Mets did a lot better than the Rockies. The Mets also traded Byrd last season for Vic Black, another player who looks to have a significant role on the team next year. Sandy has slowly been building a depth of players.

The trade rumors for Ike Davis have mostly fallen in line with the Brewers and have hit a snag over the Mets asking price of Tyler Thornberg. Now that Loney has signed with the Rays and the Mariners have acquired and signed for Hart and Morrison, the Pirates are also looking for first base help.

The Pirates at first base have Gaby Sanchez who in his career can handle left handing pitching but melts against right handed:

Vs. LHP: 250 G, 476 AB, .300 BA, .399 OBP, .496 SLG, .895 OPS, 19 HR, 34 2B, 74 RBI
Vs. RHP: 499 G, 1260 AB, .242 BA, .313 OBP, .387 SLG, .700 OPS, 35 HR, 74 2B, 159 RBI

Ike Davis at first base has the the opposite problem in his career:

Vs. LHP: 232 G, 401 AB, .204 BA, .268 OBP, .334 SLG, .602 OPS, 12 HR, 14 2B, 47 RBI
Vs. RHP: 418 G, 1087 AB, .256 BA, .356 OBP, .471 SLG, .827 SLG, 55 RBI, 67 2B, 172 RBI

Ike Davis doesn’t solve the on base problem for the Pirates against right handed batting, but look at the other numbers. His slugging is over 100 points better and the Pirates would see more right handed batters.

If I were the Pirates, and obviously because I’m a Mets fan I’m biased on the value of Ike Davis, but I would trade for Davis. This would be one of those unique situations where the platoon splits work well for a team and Davis is no slouch with the glove.

This is also the same reason why the Mets cannot keep Davis and Duda for the platoon. They are both week against left handed hitting and have similar career OPS against right handers (Duda is a little lower than Davis at .812). Keeping both doesn’t solve the Mets problems. Hopefully the Mets, when pitching Davis to the Pirates, are using these numbers (I’m sure they are) as why the Pirates should make this move based on objective statistics.

Now that we are talking about Duda’s OPS of .812, the Pirates could consider trading for him instead, although it would cost more since the Mets value Duda more than Davis. The advantage of trading for Duda is they can also stick him in the outfield on occasion and use him in a wider platoon mode.

The main point is it is silly for the Mets to keep Davis and Duda since they have similar holes in their offense games and both Davis and Duda would fill the gap in the Pirates offense regarding hitting righties out of the first base spot.

For the second time this offseason, lets take a look what the Mets lineup would like if the season started today. Last time we did this, the Mets had yet to make a move.  Let’s take a look:

Catcher: Travis d’Arnaud
First Base: Ike Davis / Lucas Duda (Formerly: Ike Davis / Josh Satin)
Second Base: Daniel Murphy
Shortstop: Ruben Tejada (Formerly Omar Quintanilla / Ruben Tejada)
Third Base: David Wright
Left Field: Chris Young / Eric Young Jr. (Formerly Eric Young Jr. / Matt den dekker)
Center Field: Juan Lagares
Right Field: Curtis Granderson (Formerly Lucas Duda, now at 1B)

Stating Rotation:
Jon Niese
Zack Wheeler
Dillon Gee
Bartolo Colon (Formerly Carlos Torres)
Jenry Mejia

Bullpen:
Bobby Parnell
Vic Black
Scott Rice
Gonzalez German
Carlos Torres
J. Familia

Big changes. This team looks lot better than it did in November. Granderson and Chris Young add a ton of defense to the outfield that already has one of the objectively best defenders from last season in Juan Lagares. This bumps Eric Young Jr. into a low ratio platoon in the outfield, which is not like before. Between C Young/Granderson/Duda there is now a potential for a lot more power in the lineup.

This brings us to the second largest change, Granderson bumps Duda to 1B leaving the Mets with two players at the bag and Josh Satin. The only hole this lineup has now is shortstop and there is still time for that to change either through trade, free agency or hope that Tejada can return to his old self.

The starting rotation also went through a make over that bumped Carlos Torres back the bullpen via Bartolo Colon. If Syndegaard or Montero come up through the 2014 season and do well, this could be a strong rotation. Before Colon, they both needed to do this, which would be improbable. Also the 2015 rotation that has Harvey in it now looks great.

The only area of the team that has not changed yet is the bullpen.

The Mets are quite close to being relevant with this lineup, especially if Chris Young can have a great season.

Day 2 of the Winter Meetings is winding down and as we head into Day 3, it is a good time to look at the players the Mets have been connected to so far over the last week:

• Jeremy Hefner: Mets have resigned him to a minor league deal
• Johan Santana: Over the last few days there has been increased chatter about teams interested in Santana. The Mets look to be one of seven teams interested in the pitcher with the Orioles as another major player. (Source)
• Stephen Drew: Red Sox and Twins are both in on Drew as well. Mets will only act if the price/years drop
• Freddy Garcia: Mets also talked to his agent. (Source).
• Bartolo Colon: Looking for a one year deal. Mets have checked in but will be pricey.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka: Alderson said on Monday he has not really talked to Daisuke yet
• Bronson Arroyo: Reds, Twins and Mets are all in Bronson. It feels like the Mets though are last on this list.
• Dustin Ackerly: Heymen says the Mets are interested in Ackerly who is currently a Mariner
• Cesar Iztrus: Mets might consider him as a back up.
• JJ Hardy: The Mets have asked about Hardy.
• Nick Markakis: The Mets have asked about Markakis
• Dylan Bundy: There is some debate if the Mets asked the Orioles about Bundy or if the Mets just discussed Bundy internally

Excited for Day 3!

Yesterday was filled with almost a hilarious amount of conflicting reports regarding Daniel Murphy trade rumors. The rumor mill pretty much contradicted itself every time one rumor surfaced. Here’s the best I could do at collected the different Murphy trade rumors:

First, the natural fits for Murphy would be a team looking for a second basemen. This includes the Yankees, Orioles, Royals, Tigers and Dodgers among others.

Matt Cerrone reported over the weekend that Murphy could net a mid-rotation starter in trade. Cerrone was also speculating throughout the weekend that a larger piece could be acquired if the Mets could find a team looking for a Murphy/Davis/Prospect package.

November was when the whispers about trading Murphy started. On November 14th, sorted by Metsblog, Rosenthal reported that there is a possibility that the Mets might trade Murphy. Rubin confirmed this saying there was a preliminary discussion with some teams.

From the beginning of December, the Mets seemed to have several different ideas about who could play second base for the Mets. First it was reported that the Mets would not use Young Jr. at second, but then Alderson said he saw Young Jr. as more than a reserve player, which complicates things when currently the strongest position he has on the team is platoon with Chris Young. Young Jr. is the only option right now for lead off.

Then there was yesterday where the news went bonkers. News from various sources ranged from slating Tejada as a starter at SS to Tejada being part time 2B/SS. Ultimately, the Tejada saga is tied to the Murphy saga. An upgrade at short might cost Murphy, or allow the Mets to move Tejada to second to turn Murphy into another piece for the team. Anyway, Passan reported the Mets were trying hard to trade Murphy while Martino felt the Mets wouldn’t haven any takers. My favorite moment of the day was when Sherman reported, and twittered echoed, the Orioles had strong interest in Murphy but the Duquette, and twitter, responded that the interest was overstated.

Personally I hope the Mets don’t trade Murphy. Working in the Mets favor for trading Murphy have been his consistent numbers over the last few seasons. Working against him is a small amount of 2B that can be moved, like Uggla.

Today should be an interesting day with more conflicting reports. #wintermeetingsnormal