213 Miles From Shea

We are about six hours away from the first game of the Spring Training calendar (I don’t count the intrasquad game, I used to, but because they call innings and set up situations since it is practice, I’m no longer counting it), it seems like a good time to update out battle charts for the 40 man roster.

For the most part there have been no changes due to no major injuries (knock on wood) and no spring stats yet.

First Base:
From Collins comments from the beginning of the Spring, this is looking more like Davis’ job to lose. It seems like the organization wants him to start, with Josh Satin getting a healthy amount of AB’s in a platoon. If he struggles though, Duda will be slipped in.

Outfield:
This is looking more like a four person rotation of Chris Young, Erick Young Jr., Curtis Granderson and Juan Lagares. Eric Young can make it in as a regular with amazing numbers and a demonstration of great defense. If Juan Lagares has an awesome offense year then it is his job (I’m in this camp). Interesting situation yesterday where Juan Lagares, Chris Young and Granderson went off to a field on their own to practice defense. That sounds like a starting outfield.

Rotation:
With Colon and Niese sidelined with minor, minor stuff. No new information here.

Let’s see what happens today by over-analyzing small sample sizes!

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Without Harvey, Jon Niese looks to be the Opening Day Starter this season, barring a crazy strong Spring by Colon or Wheeler. While the excitement of the Mets pitching staff lies with Harvey, Wheeler and Syndegaard, the long term success also lies with Niese, especially he becomes the elder member of the staff in 2016 (barring a major trade or free agent acquisition). Lets take a look at the projections:

2013: 24 G, 24 GS, 143.0 IP, 48 BB, 105 K, 8-8, 3.71 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

ESPN: 30 G, 30 GS, 180.0 IP, 55 BB, 142 K, 11 W, 3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
MLB: 185.0 IP, 11-10, 3.99 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Steamer: 29 G, 29 GS, 173.0 IP, 11-11, 3.89 ERA
Oliver: 28 G, 28 GS, 167.0 IP, 11-8 3.61 ERA
PECOTA: 29 G, 29 GS, 165.3 IP, 8.6-13.7, 46 BB, 140 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Average: 29 G, 29 GS, 174.0 IP, 10.5-10.6, 50.5 BB, 141 K, 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

I’m surprised how much of a drop in numbers the computers are expecting for Niese. It was also odd seeing how they were consistent in some areas and not on others, like all of them projecting 11 wins, except PECOTA who is really far back with 8.6. I guess this is why we play the games.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Today we finish up the three part miniseries in this series to look at the fifth rotation spot. Mejia is competing against Dice-K and Lannan for the fifth spot. Mejia is a more exciting player and has a high ceiling. right now it looks like the Mets want Mejia to have that job but if he wins it, Lannan and Dice-K may opt out of their deal, thus cause break the depth the Mets have. Lets take a look at the projections:

2013: 5 G, 5 GS, 27.1 IP, 4 BB, 27 K, 1-2, 2.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

ESPN: 23 G, 20 GS, 114.0 IP, 39 BB, 71 K, 7 W, 3.79 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
MLB: 105.0 IP, 5-5, 37 BB, 90 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Steamer: 35 G, 5 GS, 4-3, 59.0 IP, 3.57 ERA
Oliver: 19 G, 13 GS, 4-4, 72.0 IP, 4.11 ERA
PECOTA: 23 G, 23 GS, 122.0 IP, 6-11.3, 46 BB, 90 K, 4.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Average: 17 G, 15 GS, 94.4 IP, 5.2-5.8, 40.6 BB, 83.6 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

The computer models are harsh on Mejia, but his small sample of games at the end of the year last year was amazing. The question is can he get back to that, or how far back to normal will he go. The numbers the model show are what the brain knows to probably be true, but the heart yearns for that small sample size in 2013.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

(Warning: This article is being written on 2/21, it is very possible that the Mets have traded or signed for another shortstop by the time this posts)

Ruben Tejada may be even more scrutinized this winter than Ike Davis. Between the calls for Peralta, then a trade for a shortstop, then Stephen Drew and possibly Franklin, the Mets have stuck by Tejada. Tejada also attended a fitness camp this off-season, something that is not reflected in the stats we are about to go over. Ruben had a strong 2012 and a weak 2013, lets see what happens in 2014:

2013: 208 AB, 20 R, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB, .202 BA, .259 OBP, .260 SLG

ESPN: 437 AB, 48 R, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB, .259 BA, .313 OBP, .323 SLG
MLB: 477 AB, 60 R, 3 HR, 44 RBI, 4 SB, .273 BA, .328 OBP, .354 SLG
Steamer: 524 PA, 50 R, 3 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB, .260 BA, .317 OBP, .339 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 54 R, 2 HR, 44 RBI, 6 SB, .239 BA, .291 OBP, .305 SLG
PECOTA: 525 PA, 473 BA, 46 R, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB, .247 BA, .301 OBP, .320 SLG

Average: 549 PA, 463 AB, 51.6 R, 2.4 HR, 39.4 RBI, 4.8 SB, .256 BA, .310 OBP, .328 SLG

The computer programs see a large jump in production from last year, not quite 2012 levels, but way better than last year. This seems to go with the idea that Tejada can hold his own in the lineup if other players around him succeed. Franklin and Drew are still nice options because they have more pop than Tejada, and in Franklin’s situation, a larger ceiling, but the Mets have some internal options that are a few seasons away from coming up as well. The goal for Tejada this year is to work on his OBP, that’s where his strength is.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Juan Lagares is my pick for center field because of his defense. However, TC is being offensively minded and Lagares has options, so he could easily see himself as the odd man out. For him to stay, he will need to produce with the bat. While I have visions of Lagares, Granderson and Chris Young running a great outfield, I understand that my views on that are minority. On March 5th and 6th we will look at the projections for both Eric Young and Chris Young, today lets focus on a player who could have / should have won a gold glove for defense last year, Lagares:

2013: 392 AB, 35 R, 4 HR, 34 RBI, 6 SB, .242 BA, .281 OBP, .352 SLG

ESPN: 258 AB, 24 R, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 6 SB, .240 BA, .281 OBP, .345 SLG
MLB: 370 AB, 40 R, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 8 SB, .249 BA, .303 OBP, .351 SLG
Steamer: 428 PA, 39 R, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 9 SB, .254 BA, .295 OBP, .365 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 64 R, 6 HR, 53 RBI, 13 SB, .259 BA, .297 OBP, .355 SLG
PECOTA: 440 PA, 411 AB, 46 R, 5 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .249 BA, .285 OBP, .354 SLG

Average: 489 PA, 346 AB, 42.6 R, 4.8 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .250 BA, .292 OBP, .354 SLG

The computers are projecting essentially the same out of Lagares. His defense is strong, so it covers for the below average offense. He is young and has the possibility to do better than these numbers, however the Mets other options are statistically speaking, significantly better than Lagares, so it will be interesting how this plays out.