213 Miles From Shea

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. Over the next few weeks we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

First up is the Captain, David Wright:

2013 Stats: 430 AB, 63 R, 18 HR, 58 RBI, 17 SB, .307 BA, .390 OBP, .514 SLG

ESPN: 554 AB, 88 R, 22 HR, 85 RBI, 18 SB, .303 BA, .388 OBP, .502 SLG
MLB: 550 AB, 87 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 17 SB, .302 BA, .379 OBP, .498 SLGOliver: 600 PA, 84 R, 21 HR, 79 RBI, 16 SB, .294 BA, .378 OBP, .484 SLG
Steamer: 612 PA, 78 R, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 14 SB, .290 BA, .376 OBP, .476 SLG
PECOTA: 606 PA, 531 AB, 77 R, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 17 SB, .272 BA, .356 OBP, .443 SLG

Average Stats: 606 PA, 545 AB, 82.8 R, 20.8 HR, 80.8 RBI, 16.4 SB, .292 BA, .375 OBP, .481 SLG

It is difficult to compare his 2013 stats to his projected tats because of the difference in at bats. Most of the the projections are in agreement about Wright’s OBP, with the excpetion of PECOTA. They also are in agreement regarding Wright’s power numbers. On the whole, everyone is expecting a conservative, modest drop in production from the Captain but still a solid season.

ESPN has rolled out their top 300 players for fantasy baseball, let’s see how the Mets did:

• David Wright (19)
• Murphy (122)
• Granderson (154)
• Wheeler (176)
• Parnell (188)
• Colon (231)
• Gee (253)
• Eric Young Jr (261)
• Niese (279)

If every team had near equal talent, then every team should have 10 players in the top 300, the Mets have 9, which isn’t that far off. It is curious that the second best outfielder the Mets have, in terms of fantasy points is Eric Young Jr. (probably due to stolen bases) and he isn’t guaranteed a spot to play everyday.

In ESPN’s defense, how often does a league leader in stolen bases not have a guaranteed position? (Although I have drafted Pierre for that even when I knew he wouldn’t play everyday).

Spring Training officially started today even though it feels like almost the entire organization has already reported to camp.

What makes the position battles different this year than last year is this year, when a player doesn’t win the position outright, they have a legitimate chance to win a position at another position on the field based on how others perform. First, the depth chart for position, which is my opinion:

First Base:
– Ike Davis
– Lucas Duda
– Josh Satin (Slips to #2 depending on who wins #1)
– Daniel Murphy (Rises to 1 if Davis/Duda fail AND Eric Young needs to play)
– Wilmer Flores (Davis/Duda Fail, decide to keep Murphy at Second)

Second Base:
– Daniel Murphy
– Eric Young (Only considered if he can’t break the OF, Davis/Duda fail and force Murphy to move)
– Wilmer Flores (If spring training shows his bat is necessary, can’t handle SS and Davis/Duda fail)

Shortstop:
– Ruben Tejada
– Wilmer Flores (If he can show that he can field SS)

Outfield:
– Curtis Granderson (Lock)
– Juan Lagares (Should be a lock, needs to hit)
– Chris Young (If he can hit, he’s in)
– Eric Young Jr (They want him in badly somewhere in this lineup)
– Lucas Duda (Davis and Duda equally perform well and Duda does considerably better than someone above him on this list)

Stating Rotation, 5th Spot:
– Jenrry Mejia
– Jon Lannan (Can opt out if he doesn’t make Major League Roster)
– Daisuke Matsuzaka (Can opt out if he doesn’t make Major League Roster)

Set-Up Man:
– Vic Black
– Jose Valverde
– Kyle Farnsworth (Most likely one one of Farnsworth or Valverde makes the roster because they are both on Minor League Deals)

Commentary:

For the position battles, this comes down to the Davis and Duda. If only one of them is successful, it makes first base easier to forecast and takes one out of the outfield race. If both bomb, really bomb, which I don’t think would happen, then Murphy slides over to first and Eric Young to second, making the outfield really simple.

I am biased when it comes to the outfield because I want a Lagares/Granderson/Chris Young outfield for the defense. Because of that, I really want Lagares to perform well this spring. He has the least developed bat out of the group and it looks like this will become a contest of offense. He also has minor league options which can hurt him. At the same time, it is really difficult to deny his defense.

Wilmer Flores probably starts the year in the minors. He needs to find a place on the Mets to play. Second is blocked by Murphy and Third by Wright. He could play first, and should get some reps there this spring but also should be tried at short stop. Same problem with Eric Young Jr. he needs as a place to play on the field to get in the lineup. If one of Young Jr or Flores could play SS, then a lot of this goes away.

As for the rotation, Mejia is the most exciting choice and should be his to lose outright. Lannan and Dice-K have an advantage because they need to make the major league roster for the Mets to keep them (well not need to, but they could easily go some place else if they have a strong spring and don’t make the team). This also impacts Farnsworth and Valverde since they are also both on minor league deals. To get two or more out of the four on the roster will be tough.

MLB.com just released their 2014 Fantasy Projections and rankings which you could find here, but I collected the Mets players they have below. First the following Mets players made the overall top rankings (with the number rank in parenthesis): Wright (23), Granderson (71), Murphy (109), Parnell (212), Gee (230), Colon (253), Niese (271), Wheeler (285), and Young (291).

Projections:

• Ike Davis: .244 BA, 58 R, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 3 SB
• Lucas Duda: .246 BA, 43 R, 16 HR, 44 RBI, 1 SB
• Josh Satin: .262 BA, 24 R, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 1 SB
• Daniel Murphy: .287 BA, 84 R, 11 HR, 73 RBI, 14 SB
• Ruben Tejada: .273 BA, 60 R, 3 HR, 44 RBI, 4 SB
• David Wright: .302 BA, 87 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 17 SB
• Travis d’Arnaud: .263 BA, 44 R, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 1 SB
• Eric Young Jr: .245 BA, 53 R, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 30 SB
• Chris Young: .222 BA, 64 R, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 15 SB
• Juan Lagares: .259 BA, 44 R, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 9 SB
• Curtis Granderson: .242 BA, 86 R, 28 HR, 88 RBI, 13 SB

• Bartolo Colon: 12-10, 3.67 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
• Jon Niese: 11-10, 3.99 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
• Dillon Gee: 10-12, 4.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
• Zack Wheeler: 10-10 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
• Daisuke Matsuzaka: 2-5, 4.86 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
• John Lannan: 4-5, 4.32 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
• Jenrry Mejia: 5-5, 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
• Noah Syndergaard: 5-5, 4.30 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
• Bobby Parnell: 30 SV, 2.89 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Spring Training hasn’t officially started for pitchers and catchers yet, but earlier this week there were over 60 players in camp (compared to slightly under 20 last year). At this point, the idea of official start to spring training has been thrown out the window with the idea of arriving at the reporting date as being late.

Naturally, both Ike Davis and Lucas Duda have arrived early to camp. Ike Davis has been photographed a lot with David Wright, has been working hard and probably has the inside track to the first basemen job since it was his job to start (and he may have the higher ceiling over Duda).

Lucas has been no slouch either. He has been in Michigan over the winter working on strength and conditioning with Tejada (among others). Duda has entered camp stronger, lighter and faster. As he has said, he has worked on his base running technique. Teaching base running technique is the way you can teach speed. (I never really liked that slogan, “you can’t teach speed” because you can always work on mechanics for individuals).

In other Ike Davis news, Terry is expecting to give him 80-100 at bats this spring, players usually top out around 60.

In other words, the games haven’t started yet this spring, and the official workouts haven’t started yet, but the anecdotal reporting is that both players are better than they were last year, which makes it seem like this spring will be competitive.

And hey, the Mets will have meaningful March games.

I found myself thinking the other day, “eh, maybe Stephen Drew isn’t worth a two year deal, he’s especially not worth a three year one.”

And then I stopped. Why was I thinking this?

I determined that I was being swayed by popular opinion, because at the start of the off-season, I was advocating signing Jhonny Peralta to either a 3 year 36 million, or 4 year 48 million if it meant over paying him to get him on the team. This contract seemed at the time more feasible than Drew. Back then it looked like Drew would be in line for the real pay day.

But the baseball off-season is odd and the first few major free agents that go off the board too early (Peralta was the one this year) get overpaid and the better talent, the perceived more expensive talent, especially in the time of the CBA gets more scrutiny over whether the playing ability is worth the financial and draft pick cost.

The Mets will be better next year, but as right now, just not good enough. There is a lot of uncertainty, players need to have breakout (d’Arnaud) or comeback (Chris Young) years to push us over. It isn’t a long shot for that to happen, but betting on hope isn’t helpful. Since the Mets will be better next year, it is difficult to imagine that they will find themselves in the position of a protected first round draft pick, like this season.

Stephen Drew will only cost a third round pick. He is going to be below market value from where he was at the start of the off season. MLBTradeRumors says he’s the 14th best player to be a free agent this year, 7 spots above Peralta.

In short, Drew doesn’t make us world champs, but he makes us better. He puts us in a better position, and allows our other pieces to provide depth. If the general consensus at the start of the off season was frustration for not signing Peralta, then why are we not shouting for Drew?