213 Miles From Shea

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Today we continue our look at first base. Yesterday we looked at Ike Davis, today we will look at his main competition, and also outfield competition in Lucas Duda. (Tomorrow we will look at Josh Satin). Anyway let’s look at Duda’s projections:

2013: 318 AB, 42 R, 15 HR, 0 SB .223 BA, .352 OBP, .415 SLG

ESPN: 346 AB, 45 R, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 1 SB, .249 BA, .357 OBP, .408 SLG
MLB: 400 AB, 50 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .245 BA, .345 OBP, .403 SLG
Steamer: 342 PA, 37 R, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 2 SB, .237 BA, .334 OBP, .404 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 65 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 3 SB, .217 BA, .327 OBP, .372 SLG
PECOTA: 331 PA, 287 AB, 38 R, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB, .239 BA, .333 OBP, .415 SLG

Average: 424 PA, 344 AB, 47 R, 13.8 HR, 49 RBI, 2 SB, .237 BA, .320 OBP, .404

Basically, the models really don’t support Duda over Davis at all. They suggest that Duda will not have the power that Davis has next season. Oliver projects all batters to 600 plate appearances, which is why the numbers seem higher than other models, but even that one slams Duda with batting average. If these projections hold true, it is also difficult to see how Duda fits into the outfield also. Duda is in better shape this spring, so the games in March will matter.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Today, tomorrow and the day after, we’ll look at the three likely candidates for significant play time at first base: Ike Davis, Lucas Duda and Josh Satin, starting with the most likely to get the job, Ike Davis. Short story about Davis if you’ve been under a rock for the last two years, starts off slow and then gets it together late. 2012 was better than 2013 as he was able to get it together in a big way at the end of the season. There was a lot of talk about moving him this off-season, but that didn’t happen. Anyway, he’s here, still has a lot of potential, and is scheduled to take a lot of AB’s this spring. Lets take a look at his projections:

2013: 317 AB, 37 R, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 4 SB, .205 BA, .326 OBP, .334 SLG

ESPN: 441 AB, 64 R, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB, .234 BA, .339 OBP, .422 SLG
MLB: 400 AB, 50 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .245 BA, .345 OBP, .403 SLG
Steamer: 409 PA, 47 R, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 2 SB, .238 BA, .340 OBP, .439 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 68 R, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 3 SB, .216 BA, .327 OBP, .398 SLGPECOTA: 472 PA, 410 AB, 57 R, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 2 SB, .236 BA, .330 OBP, .428 SLG

Average: 493.7 PA, 417 AB, 57.2 R, 18.6 HR, 62.8 RBI, 2.4 SB, .234 BA, .336 OBP, .418 SLG

The computers and projecting a slight bounce back in Davis’s stats and are also projecting him to split time at first place. The question is will he steadily put these numbers up all season or will he boom and bust like he has in his career. If the latter is the case, which it probably will be, if the boom is longer than the bust, then he could easily break these projections on the high side.

Saw this tweet floating around twitter today:

#Mets @CY24_7 talks hitting insight from Rod Carew, moving back to the NL and more. Video: http://t.co/Bp071Yhx5W pic.twitter.com/w71S9wSE6x

— New York Mets (@Mets) February 18, 2014

The word on the street is the Mets dropped the alternate skyline logo with a black skyline this year. This logo and patch is usually found on the Black Jerseys. Word earlier this year that changed (I can’t confirm again because I can’t find the black jerseys online and don’t have access to a style guide).

It will be interesting if this alternate orange skyline pictured above turns out to be a a real thing outside of the St. Lucie.
 

When I was in high school (which wasn’t too long ago, class of 2007), the Mets age of the internet was just about in full swing (minus #MetsTwitter). When I started high school, that wasn’t the case.

As a high school student in Baltimore, I didn’t really have too much access to Mets news, especially in my freshman and sophomore year. Back then there was Mets.com, a few other Mets sites I didn’t know about yet, the Baltimore Sun if the Mets did something major, 20 second clips on ESPNNEWS and Baseball Tonight, the WFAN signal I could pick up on a clear night (sorta) and TBS when the Mets played the Braves.

For me, searching for any Mets news I could find, the baseball guides that come out of the start of a season became a yearly routine. They would come out, and I would pick them up at the local bookstore or grocery store. Guides like Athlon Sports, you know guides that change their cover for whatever major league market they are in, spend about two to four pages on each team etc.

Looking back on how technology has changed how we get baseball news (hell, Metsblog.com is still the go to, but you can faster information following Baron’s and Cerrone’s twitter feed) these guides don’t have as much of a use to me any more. Like most physical print, they suffer from being behind signings that happened after publication and sometimes are clearly written by someone who doesn’t know the team.

For example, one guide, I’ll leave the name unknown, for this year, listed key series for each team this year. For the Mets they named the Diamondbacks saying, “The Mets don’t have rivalry history with the Diamondbacks, but they will now since the series occurs during David Wright Printed Canvas Night.”

Yep. We are going to have a rivalry now with the Diamondbacks. Giveaway days tell all.

Looking at the rack of these magazines, which have exploded with the amount of people playing Fantasy Baseball now, or at least with how the economy around Fantasy Sports now, I feel a sense of nostalgia. I also realize how lucky I am to live in NYC area with internet access.

GO METS. BEAT THE DIAMONDBACKS.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

If the Mets are going to be a contender in 2014, a lot is riding on Travis d’Arnaud. Not only does he have to call a great game night after night, but he also needs to perform offensively. He is still considered one of the best Mets prospects, but injury concerns are all over the place.

2013: 99 AB, 4 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .202 BA, .286 OBP, .263 SLG

ESPN: 414 AB, 46 R, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 1 SB, .239 BA, .325 OBP, .389 SLG
MLB: 380 AB, 44 R, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 1 SB, .263 BA, .346 OBP, .368 SLG
Steamer: 428 PA, 44 R, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 2 SB, .254 BA, .320 OBP, .418 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 65 R, 16 HR, 70 RBI, 2 SB, .241 BA, .312 OBP, .397 SLG
PECOTA: 489 PA, 441 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 1 SB, .250 BA, .315 OBP, .414 SLG

Average: 505.7 PA, 411.7 AB, 50.8 R, 13 HR, 53.6 RBI, 1.4 SB, .249 BA, .324 OBP, .397

This was an interesting projection article to write because the projections are all over the place. Four of the five don’t think d’Arnaud will complete a full slate of plate appearances. Some, like ESPN, project a lot of power in a few AB’s (well not a lot, but a sizable amount)  but a low amount of RBI’s. They also have no idea how to project his batting average. In short, he’s a rookie that could have a lot of promise this year, or could take him a season or two to get up to speed. He should be curious to watch in 2014.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Curtis Granderson was the big signing of the off-season. As for his 2014 campaign, there are two questions that hang over projector’s heads. First, how will Granderson respond to his injury from last year. Second, how will Granderson’s numbers respond to not being in Yankee Stadium this year. Let’s take a look!

2013: 214 AB, 31 R, 7 HR, 15 RBI, 8 SB, .229 BA, .317 OBP, .407 SLG

ESPN: 549 AB, 87 R, 24 HR, 73 RBI, 14 SB, .233 BA, .323 OBP, .426 SLG
MLB: 549 AB, 86 R, 28 HR, 88 RBI, 13 SB, .242 BA, .329 OBP, .450 SLG
Steamer: 581 PA, 71 R, 24 HR, 68 RBI, 11 SB, .228 BA, .320 OBP, .429 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 71 R, 19 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB, .220 BA, .306 OBP, .390 SLG
PECOTA: 610 PA, 532 AB, 79 R, 26 HR, 82 RBI, 15 SB, .229 BA, .315 OBP, .434 SLG

Average: 597 PA, 543.3 AB, 78.8 R, 24.2 HR, 75.4 RBI, 13 SB, .230 BA, .319 OBP, .426 SLG

I’m a bit surprised by the Oliver projection, it seems oddly low for Granderson. I’m also a bit surprised at PECOTA, PECOTA generally takes players down a few notches, but projected him better than ESPN, Steamer and Oliver. I’m looking forward to seeing if Granderson can shatter these expectations this year.

Adam Rubin today posted a photo of Tejada arriving at camp today. It is difficult in street clothes to make a statement if he changed from the Fitness program because his style of outside the Mets uniform is inline with the popular fashion styles of wearing tight fitting clothing. So he always looks stronger compared to in a baseball uniform. Luckily Newsday posted a picture of him arriving in article posted last year. I took both photographs and put them side by side. I didn’t make them equal sizes because it distorted the vertical to horizontal ratio:

The picture on the left is 2014, the picture on the right is 2013. When compared to images from 2012, you can tell he’s getting older. I’m curious to see how this translates on the baseball field.

Using last year as a model, it was expected that some high level free agents would still be on the market as spring training starts thanks to the CBA. This year there are a good amount of free agents in the group, such as Stephen Drew and Nelson Cruz. They’re interesting because their opposite counter parts have signed. Outside of the Drew, the best shortstop on the market was Jhonny Peralta, held back PED’s. He signed a four year deal with a 53 million dollar deal. Cruz is similar to Granderson. Possibly a bit better (injury concerns, not playing in Yankee Stadium for a while) but Granderson didn’t have a PED scandal.

So one player with PED signs a major deal, blocks the clean player. A similar clean player makes it more difficult for the PED player to sign.

There are the baseball reasons why the Mets should sign Drew. They need a shortstop, someone to hit leadoff, etc. There are also reasons the Mets should sign Cruz. Cruz pushes the power through the lineup, allows the Mets to toy with the idea of Granderson second in the lineup, possibly lead off with Murphy.

Initially at the start of the off-season, both Drew and Cruz were 15 million a year players (well, what they were asking for). Drew is much less than that, Cruz is near that, but would require a longer term deal. Cruz would make the lineup better, Drew fills more holes.

Why does Drew make more financial sense?

Well the Mets weren’t originally looking for two big free agent Outfielders (or more generally two major acquisitions) so they also got Chris Young. If the Mets sign Nelson Cruz, then money wise, if they want to use their recent acquisitions, they run Granderson/Cruz/Chris Young with Eric Young Jr / Lagares / Duda rotating in for Chris Young and off days. It spells huge depth, but it makes it really makes Chris Young redundant.

If the Mets could spend more money, they might be able to get both Cruz and Drew at below inflated market price. In that case sign both. But if they can only sign one, Drew would cost less, and free up more for next off season or something mid-season. If the Mets want to go with depth in the outfield and fix lead off, then sign both.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Daniel Murphy is finally getting the respect he deserves from people who write Fantasy Articles. probably because has had a few seasons now of consistent performance a position that often struggles to have consistent performers. Anyway lets look at his stats and projections:

2013: 658 AB, 92 R, 13 HR, 78 RBI, 23 SB, .286 BA, .319 OBP, .415 SLG

ESPN: 603 AB, 78 R, 9 HR, 64 RBI, 15 SB, .289 BA, .324 OBP, .410 SLGMLB: 610 AB, 84 R, 11 HR, 73 RBI, 14 SB, .287 BA, .333 OBP, .410 SLG
Steamer: 576 PA, 65 R, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 11 SB, .280 BA, .323 OBP, .408 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 71 R, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 17 SB, .280 BA, .319 OBP, .405 SLG
PECOTA: 611 PA, 567 AB, 72 R, 56 RBI, 11 HR, 13 SB, .274 BA, .316 OBP, .400 SLG

Average: 595.7 PA, 593.3 AB, 74 R,10.2 HR,  62.6 RBI, 13.6 SB, .282 BA, .323 OBP, .407 SLG

A lot of his stat categories take a drop, be he is also projected to have about a 60 AB drop, which explains that. His average is projected to be close but a little less, his OBP close but a little more and SLG drops a bit. In other words, just like his play on the field they expect him to be consistent.