213 Miles From Shea

The trade rumors for Ike Davis have mostly fallen in line with the Brewers and have hit a snag over the Mets asking price of Tyler Thornberg. Now that Loney has signed with the Rays and the Mariners have acquired and signed for Hart and Morrison, the Pirates are also looking for first base help.

The Pirates at first base have Gaby Sanchez who in his career can handle left handing pitching but melts against right handed:

Vs. LHP: 250 G, 476 AB, .300 BA, .399 OBP, .496 SLG, .895 OPS, 19 HR, 34 2B, 74 RBI
Vs. RHP: 499 G, 1260 AB, .242 BA, .313 OBP, .387 SLG, .700 OPS, 35 HR, 74 2B, 159 RBI

Ike Davis at first base has the the opposite problem in his career:

Vs. LHP: 232 G, 401 AB, .204 BA, .268 OBP, .334 SLG, .602 OPS, 12 HR, 14 2B, 47 RBI
Vs. RHP: 418 G, 1087 AB, .256 BA, .356 OBP, .471 SLG, .827 SLG, 55 RBI, 67 2B, 172 RBI

Ike Davis doesn’t solve the on base problem for the Pirates against right handed batting, but look at the other numbers. His slugging is over 100 points better and the Pirates would see more right handed batters.

If I were the Pirates, and obviously because I’m a Mets fan I’m biased on the value of Ike Davis, but I would trade for Davis. This would be one of those unique situations where the platoon splits work well for a team and Davis is no slouch with the glove.

This is also the same reason why the Mets cannot keep Davis and Duda for the platoon. They are both week against left handed hitting and have similar career OPS against right handers (Duda is a little lower than Davis at .812). Keeping both doesn’t solve the Mets problems. Hopefully the Mets, when pitching Davis to the Pirates, are using these numbers (I’m sure they are) as why the Pirates should make this move based on objective statistics.

Now that we are talking about Duda’s OPS of .812, the Pirates could consider trading for him instead, although it would cost more since the Mets value Duda more than Davis. The advantage of trading for Duda is they can also stick him in the outfield on occasion and use him in a wider platoon mode.

The main point is it is silly for the Mets to keep Davis and Duda since they have similar holes in their offense games and both Davis and Duda would fill the gap in the Pirates offense regarding hitting righties out of the first base spot.

For the second time this offseason, lets take a look what the Mets lineup would like if the season started today. Last time we did this, the Mets had yet to make a move.  Let’s take a look:

Catcher: Travis d’Arnaud
First Base: Ike Davis / Lucas Duda (Formerly: Ike Davis / Josh Satin)
Second Base: Daniel Murphy
Shortstop: Ruben Tejada (Formerly Omar Quintanilla / Ruben Tejada)
Third Base: David Wright
Left Field: Chris Young / Eric Young Jr. (Formerly Eric Young Jr. / Matt den dekker)
Center Field: Juan Lagares
Right Field: Curtis Granderson (Formerly Lucas Duda, now at 1B)

Stating Rotation:
Jon Niese
Zack Wheeler
Dillon Gee
Bartolo Colon (Formerly Carlos Torres)
Jenry Mejia

Bullpen:
Bobby Parnell
Vic Black
Scott Rice
Gonzalez German
Carlos Torres
J. Familia

Big changes. This team looks lot better than it did in November. Granderson and Chris Young add a ton of defense to the outfield that already has one of the objectively best defenders from last season in Juan Lagares. This bumps Eric Young Jr. into a low ratio platoon in the outfield, which is not like before. Between C Young/Granderson/Duda there is now a potential for a lot more power in the lineup.

This brings us to the second largest change, Granderson bumps Duda to 1B leaving the Mets with two players at the bag and Josh Satin. The only hole this lineup has now is shortstop and there is still time for that to change either through trade, free agency or hope that Tejada can return to his old self.

The starting rotation also went through a make over that bumped Carlos Torres back the bullpen via Bartolo Colon. If Syndegaard or Montero come up through the 2014 season and do well, this could be a strong rotation. Before Colon, they both needed to do this, which would be improbable. Also the 2015 rotation that has Harvey in it now looks great.

The only area of the team that has not changed yet is the bullpen.

The Mets are quite close to being relevant with this lineup, especially if Chris Young can have a great season.

Day 2 of the Winter Meetings is winding down and as we head into Day 3, it is a good time to look at the players the Mets have been connected to so far over the last week:

• Jeremy Hefner: Mets have resigned him to a minor league deal
• Johan Santana: Over the last few days there has been increased chatter about teams interested in Santana. The Mets look to be one of seven teams interested in the pitcher with the Orioles as another major player. (Source)
• Stephen Drew: Red Sox and Twins are both in on Drew as well. Mets will only act if the price/years drop
• Freddy Garcia: Mets also talked to his agent. (Source).
• Bartolo Colon: Looking for a one year deal. Mets have checked in but will be pricey.
• Daisuke Matsuzaka: Alderson said on Monday he has not really talked to Daisuke yet
• Bronson Arroyo: Reds, Twins and Mets are all in Bronson. It feels like the Mets though are last on this list.
• Dustin Ackerly: Heymen says the Mets are interested in Ackerly who is currently a Mariner
• Cesar Iztrus: Mets might consider him as a back up.
• JJ Hardy: The Mets have asked about Hardy.
• Nick Markakis: The Mets have asked about Markakis
• Dylan Bundy: There is some debate if the Mets asked the Orioles about Bundy or if the Mets just discussed Bundy internally

Excited for Day 3!

Yesterday was filled with almost a hilarious amount of conflicting reports regarding Daniel Murphy trade rumors. The rumor mill pretty much contradicted itself every time one rumor surfaced. Here’s the best I could do at collected the different Murphy trade rumors:

First, the natural fits for Murphy would be a team looking for a second basemen. This includes the Yankees, Orioles, Royals, Tigers and Dodgers among others.

Matt Cerrone reported over the weekend that Murphy could net a mid-rotation starter in trade. Cerrone was also speculating throughout the weekend that a larger piece could be acquired if the Mets could find a team looking for a Murphy/Davis/Prospect package.

November was when the whispers about trading Murphy started. On November 14th, sorted by Metsblog, Rosenthal reported that there is a possibility that the Mets might trade Murphy. Rubin confirmed this saying there was a preliminary discussion with some teams.

From the beginning of December, the Mets seemed to have several different ideas about who could play second base for the Mets. First it was reported that the Mets would not use Young Jr. at second, but then Alderson said he saw Young Jr. as more than a reserve player, which complicates things when currently the strongest position he has on the team is platoon with Chris Young. Young Jr. is the only option right now for lead off.

Then there was yesterday where the news went bonkers. News from various sources ranged from slating Tejada as a starter at SS to Tejada being part time 2B/SS. Ultimately, the Tejada saga is tied to the Murphy saga. An upgrade at short might cost Murphy, or allow the Mets to move Tejada to second to turn Murphy into another piece for the team. Anyway, Passan reported the Mets were trying hard to trade Murphy while Martino felt the Mets wouldn’t haven any takers. My favorite moment of the day was when Sherman reported, and twittered echoed, the Orioles had strong interest in Murphy but the Duquette, and twitter, responded that the interest was overstated.

Personally I hope the Mets don’t trade Murphy. Working in the Mets favor for trading Murphy have been his consistent numbers over the last few seasons. Working against him is a small amount of 2B that can be moved, like Uggla.

Today should be an interesting day with more conflicting reports. #wintermeetingsnormal

The MLB offseason so far has been ridiculous. It felt like there were more rumors than normal during the GM meetings and last week there were a larger than normal amount of trades and free agent signings.

So far the Mets have made two moves signing Chris Young to a one year deal and the more significant move of signing Curtis Granderson to a four year deal. Chris Young on his own doesn’t do much to the outfield but with Granderson the outfield is now one of the best defensively in the league and the lineup has the chance for serious pop.

If we go back to the Mets offseason goals from the start, they wanted to get two outfielders. Next on their list would be a short stop and a starting pitcher.

Thanks to the flurry of free agents signings over the last week (Peralta, Beltran, Cano, Granderson, Morneau, etc) there is now a better understanding what the trade market looks like for corner OF and 1B. For the Mets this week, they will look to trade one of Ike Davis and Lucas Duda, possibly with Daniel Murphy (which doesn’t make too much sense to me personally) for another impact bat. The Mets could be looking for a SS, a second basemen if they trade Murphy (once again, which doesn’t make sense) or an OF who can also hit lead off.

Teams like the Yankees need a 2B, but I’m not sure what the Mets could get in return. The Mariners are trying to get David Price, so maybe the Mets can get involved in a three year trade.

Teams I’m looking at as possible partners for the Mets would be the Rays and the Orioles. The Rays could use a first basement and maybe the Mets could convince them to part with Yunel Escobar. The Orioles are under pressure to make a move, especially since they traded Jim Johnson for salary room and didn’t sign McLouth and missed out on Beltran.

Let’s see what happens! Its been a crazy week for trades, and there are always surprises during the Winter Meetings.

It looks like the Mets will not be able to complete one of the options on the table for a backup catcher if the rumors regarding Arecibia hold true.

Last week it looked like the Mets had the following options for backup catching role:

• Keep using Anthony Recker
• Try to reach a deal for Flowers if the White Sox didn’t tender him a contract
• Sign Arencibia if non-tendered

The White Sox reached a deal with Flowers, so that option went off the table, but the Blue Jays did not tender J.P. Arecibia a contract, which gave the Mets an opening.

The market took a surprisingly active turn on Saturday though, with the Yankees signing McCann. Suddenly, in addition to all of the other trades happening in baseball, catchers started flying off the board. With hindsight in mind, this probably predicted the end of the Mets run for Arencibia because the Mets did not need a back up catcher that badly.

Flowers and Arencibia were both appealing to the Mets because they would be backup catchers with pop on a team that is struggling to find pop (if they could find a starting pitcher with batting pop, I’m sure the Mets would be first in line to sign him up).

At least from the most recent news, it looks like Texas will be going after Arencibia, which makes sense since they tried to get him via trade and did not join in the catcher signing frenzy.

This leaves the Mets with Anthony Recker, who in 135 at bats last year, knocked 6 homeruns. This was the first time in his limited major league experience that he showed this power but in a small sample it was similar to Flowers and showed shades of Arencibia (the difference with JP being that he has shown power 3 seasons in a row). Personally, I feel alright with Recker as the backup catcher for the 2014 season if he can continue the power he has shown. It is a better situation than in previous years with Thole backed up by Nickeas. Now we have a back up who can hopefully hit. The Mets do lose out though on a veteran presence behind the plate though, which would help with d’Arnaud.

Yesterday was an incredibly unusual day as a large amount of trades and signings were made a week before the winter meetings and all on the same day. (And Billy Beane traded about 1938103940393 players in 43958201 trades)

Frustrating to Mets fans, the Mets didn’t do anything. Although we found out that the Mets bought Curtis Granderson a salmon over the weekend.

Some moves don’t impact the Mets, others do. I’m going to try to focus on only the ones that impact the Mets.

Ellsbury to the Yankees – Frustrating because the Yankees made yet another major move this off-season while the Mets remain quiet. For the most part, this is a good move for the Mets. Either Choo or Ellsbury needed to sign so Beltran, Cruz and Granderson would start to sign, the Mets being interested in the latter.

Fowler to the Astros via Trade – The Mets were interested in Fowler and he was traded for spare parts. This would make it harder for the Mets to work out a trade with the Rockies especially with…

Morneau to the Rockies – This is the killer to go with the above. With Morneau now on the Rockies, they have no reason to work out a trade with the Mets for Davis/Duda, knocking competition to get a better deal from either the Rockies or another team.

Pierzynski, Saltalamacchia, Wil Nieves, Ryan Hanigan, McCann, Navarro – Not all of these catchers signed yesterday but a ton of free agent catchers have been signed this off season (including Pena and Jose Molina not listed above) this could impact the Mets in two ways. First, if the Mets try to get Arencibia as a back up, they might have some competition because catchers are flying off the market. Second, if a team really needs a catcher, the Mets might have some interesting pieces via trade in either d’Arnaud or Plawecki. Maybe their value rises (I’m not too keen on this option).

The Mets surprised some, including myself, yesterday as they non-tendered a total of five players:

• Scott Atchison
• Omar Quintanilla
• Jordany Valdespin
• Jeremy Hefner
• Justin Turner

The first two names were not surprising, the third was borderline not surprising. The final two were. I’m not a Justin Turner fan, although he seems to perform well in the utility role. His non-tender was surprising because I thought the Mets really like him, maybe they bring him back on a smaller contract.

Jeremy Hefner was also surprising because he is still under team control in 2015. Even though he can’t contribute next year, the price of pitching right now is so high, I felt the Mets would try to hold onto as many as they could.

Other teams let go of players that may make sense for the bargain hunting Mets:

• JP Arencibia: The Mets have been linked to JP a lot over the last couple of seasons starting with the Dickey trade. He projects to be a back up catcher with some pop, and would be an improvement over Anthony Recker right now
• Chris Coghlan: Has not done much since his rookie season but may be a very cheap addition to add some outfield depth to a team that lacks it
• Sandy Rosario: Successful season last year, could make a good addition to the bullpen
• Tommy Hanson: Struggled last season, still has a career 3.80 ERA
• John Axford
• Andrew Bailey

If the Mets make a few major moves, one or two of the players above in addition could make a very different looking team.