In coordination with the 100th anniversary of Wrigley, the Cubs showed off 10 new jerseys last week. In that misleading statement, only one of them, a Road Alternate, is a uniform in the regular rotation. They will have 9 throwback uniforms, which we’ll look at when the Cubs wear them on the field. Anyway, here’s the new Cubs uniform via:
It’s classy and retro. I hope they wear it to Citi FIeld this year!
33 days until Spring Training!
We continue our journey up and down the Non-Roster Invitee list with a look at Adam Kolarek today. You won’t find Kolarek in any of the of the popular top 10/15/20 prospect list for the Mets as he’s been largely unknown in the Mets organization, at least to fans.
As a heads up though, I will probably be biased for the rest of this prospect preview. Kolarek and I went to the University of Maryland College Park at the same time. I’ve never met him (which is not surprising given the tremendous size of Campus) and I never watched any baseball games because I almost always had class during them. Yet, we hail from the same school and we’re both from Baltimore so I have a predisposition to root for him. He was drafted from Maryland’s flagship university in 2010 out of the 11th round. He will be 25 in the 2014 season (actually, he’ll be 25 in a few days).
In four minor league seasons he is 15-8 over 144 games and 227.2 innings with a 2.69 ERA. Let’s break it down by year:
2010 (Kingsport/Brooklyn): 2-1, 22 G, 37.1 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1 SV, 0.964 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, 10.8 K/9
2011 (Savannah/St. Lucie): 7-1, 26 G, 60.0 IP, 2.85 ERA, 5 SV, 1.283 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 8.7 K/9
2012 (St. Lucie/Binghamton): 3-3, 50 G, 63.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 19 SV, 1.326 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, 11.1 K/92013 (Binghamton/Las Vegas): 3-3, 46 G, 67.0 IP, 2.28 ERA, 1 SV, 1.149 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 8.6 K/9
There are some important trends here. His ERA has dropped each year. In 2012, it looks like he spent a significant portion of the season as a closer as his innings increased with the amount of games he appeared in (also the huge spike in saves). As his ERA dropped with his innings increasing, his WHIP increased, but last year his WHIP dropped by a noticeable amount. His BB/9 have mostly stayed constant and his K/9 has bounced from being high to being above average.
If he can put another season of a low ERA together partnered with a high K/9, he could be an intriguing addition to the bullpen as a left handed pitcher. He also one of two non roster invites who throw lefty in camp, which brings down competition.
A strong spring campaign and Kolarek could be in the blogs as a discussion point towards the end of March. Let’s see what happens!
Pitchers and Catchers report in 34 days!
In preparation, the Mets announced this week a list of additional non-roster players to come to camp. Non-roster invites run the gambit from prospect, to veterans trying to make a come back and to players who are prospects, but experts have predicted limited ceilings.
The latter is where Daniel Muno sits right now. He’s not listed as a top 15 prospect from Fan Graphs, or Baseball America in 2014, 2013 and 2012. At the end of the 2013 season, he didn’t make MLB.com’s top 20 prospects for the New York Mets. The only accolade he has received from any publication was in 2012 and 2013, Baseball America said he had the best plate discipline. However in 2014 he was replaced in that spot by Brandon Nimmo.
Muno was drafted by the Mets in 8th round of the 2011 draft from California State, Fresno. His first season with the Mets he mostly played shortstop, since then he has mostly played second but still has played at least 17 games at short each year. Offensively:
2011 (Brooklyn): 220 AB, .355 BA, .466 OBP, 23 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 24 RBI, 9 SB
2012 (St. Lucie): 289 AB, .280 BA, .387 OBP, 16 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 19 SB2013 (Binghamton): 449 AB, .249 BA, .384 OBP, 27 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 67 RBI, 15 SB
Trends:
His first season in Brooklyn was tremendous. He hit for average, had some extra-base power and got on base. His on base and average, and extra base hits like doubles took a hit in 2012. His homerun power rose though, as did his speed.
In 2013, he had significantly more at bats, his batting average dropped farther but his on base stayed consistent. His doubles and homers rose in step with the increased at bats but his stolen bases dropped.
He has shown that he can hit, although it is troubling to see his numbers drop as he moves up in each league. Spring Training should be good for Muno to get some exposure to higher level pitchers in preparation for the 2014 season. He will be 25 this year, so his clock for breaking into the leagues is starting to tick. I don’t think he has much chance of breaking camp with the Mets this year, but he does have the opportunity to turn some heads and get on the short list for late season call-ups.
Signing Drew through the 2015 season might make sense for the long term development of the Mets.
Right now the Mets have a protected first round pick. They already lost their second round pick signing Curtis Granderson and would lose a third round pick if they sign Drew.
If you take a look at next year’s free agent class, the notable shortstop choices:
Each of the above players could be either an extension candidate, require a draft pick and a long term deal. If the Mets pass on Drew and go with Tejada this season, and that doesn’t work out, they will either need to trade for a short stop next season, or sign one of these players.
The players lead a weak free agency class in terms of bats, so prices will run high. If the Mets finish in the top 20 in the league, which is easily possible, and hopeful, their draft pick won’t be protected next season. Which would increase the price.
On the flip side, if the Mets sign Drew to a year deal, they’ll be free of the contract in 2016. That will be around the same time Amed Rosario is ready to come to the majors. It will also be around the same time, although maybe a year early, that Gavin Cecchini is also ready to be called up.
In other words, signing Drew to a 2-year deal, makes sense for the current farm system the Mets have. If Tejada, Rosario and Cecchini don’t look ready by 2016 then the Mets could either extend Drew or sign another short stop at that time.
The downside to Drew in the short term is he eats up contract space financially. The upside to a short term deal is he could be turned over when prospects are ready and the Mets won’t have to give away draft picks next year, which could be pricy in the long term.
Is Stephen Drew different enough from Ruben Tejada to warrant a contract?
The debate around signing Drew centers on that pivotal question. Fangraphs has Steamer and Oliver projections for both Drew and Tejada posted already. Let’s take some time to pour over the data:
Stephen Drew:
Steamer: 530 AB, 13 HR, 68 R, 6 SB, .232 BA, .314 OBP, .378 SLG, 2.0 WAROliver: 534 AB, 16 HR, 66 R, 5 SB, .230 BA, .308 OBP, .390 SLG, 1.9 WAR
Ruben Tejada:
Steamer: 469 AB, 3 HR, 53 R, 6 SB, .260 BA, .317 OBP, .339 SLG, 1.6 WAR
Oliver: 547 AB, 2 HR, 54 R, 6 SB, .239 BA, .289 OBP, .305 SLG, 0.4 WAR
For Drew, the two models are in a lot of agreement. Oliver suggests slightly more power while Steamer suggests he’ll get on base more, and a slightly higher WAR.
For Tejada, there is a good bit of variance in the data. Steamer has Tejada is an almost platoon situation or missing a large swath of playing time but has him performing higher at batting average and on base thus a much higher WAR. The WAR suggested by Steamer is close to that of Drew. Oliver disagrees, suggesting a rough season for Tejada. Oliver and Steamer did the same for Davis, with Steamer suggesting a higher WAR for Davis playing less time during the season than in the Oliver projection. (Link for those who want to see the data).
In either case, Drew projects to be a better player than Tejada even though Drew’s numbers are not that great. Knowing that, the Mets need to be careful to overpay too much to land Drew. It is a calming thought that the models for Drew are pretty similar. His career trends seem to pan out to similar results despite the different calculations. I was already in camp Drew before looking at the numbers, but now I’m really in camp Drew.
The Mets have been linked to just about every team this off season that could be in the market for a First Basemen.
At the start of the off season, it looked like the Mets might try to bundle Davis or Duda with either a young starter or another player (Murphy) to get a big name bat for the outfield or short stop. After the Mets lost out on Peralta, it looked liked the trade route would be for a short stop and free agency for the outfield. The Mets were able to fill the outfield by two free agency signings (Granderson, Young) and their other need of starter by free agency (Colon). The last big piece the Mets are looking for is a short stop, possibly in Stephen Drew. However, since Drew is not a top ten short stop, they don’t want to commit a number of years for Drew or a large contract, especially if they are still carrying Davis.
The Orioles are on the inaction side of the off season boat. The deal with Balfour fell through and they traded away Jim Johnson. Their primary needs are a starter and a closer, with either an outfield or first base bat as the next need. The starter market is still alive, but outside of Arroyo, the market will require the Orioles to give up a draft pick, something they are reluctant to do. If it comes down to it, my gut says the Orioles will give up a draft pick for a starter, and not a position player. This takes the Orioles, at least temporarily, out of the running for Cruz and Morales.
Duda, Davis and Murphy on the Mets make sense for the Orioles.
JJ Hardy, Rodriguez, and Britton make sense for the Mets.
The problem is coming down to how the teams value their players.
The Mets have a high regard for Murphy, as they should. It is hard to find a consistent hitting second basemen, which is why the Mets asking price for Murphy is incredibly high. The Orioles have high regards for Hardy, as it is hard to find a power hitting short stop. With the Granderson signing, the Mets trading for Hardy no longer makes too much sense. He would cost too much in a trade and doesn’t help the Mets leadoff search.
So for the Mets it comes down to Rodriguez and Britton. The Orioles are high on Rodriguez, so are the Mets. This where the deal breaks down. (The rest is now speculation). The Orioles probably want either Davis/Duda + prospect or just Murphy. The Mets are looking to just move Davis.
I know I’m cycling the same Hot Stove show from SNY this week, but I agree that Britton makes sense here. Britton is coming off of a down year like Davis. When it comes to prospects and players living up to their original ceilings, a Britton / Davis trade in the long run makes sense. The Orioles have had success with another player like Davis, Chris Davis and turned him into all-star. The Mets are about enter a young arm evolution, and could use Britton.
Here’s hoping something happens.
I was at a Modell’s a couple of weeks ago and bumped into this:
It’s unusual to see Mets Black Name and Number T’s recently (although I do see them more often then black jerseys), but his one is different. Generally the inside of Mets is Blue, or the Mets use the whole Orange/Blue/White Template.
I have seen misprint shirts in the past, but there was a whole rack of these shirts, so I’m assuming it is is a fashion jersey.
(For those wondering, this was at the Modell’s on RT 22 in NJ across from the Best Buy)
Fangraphs.com features two different prediction programs (Steamer and Oliver) to project stats for the 2014 season. You can take a look at Davis’s projections here and Duda’s here. Below are some highlights:
Lucas Duda Projection:Steamer: 277 AB, 10 HR, 35 R, .237 BA, .334 OBP, .404 SLG, 0.3 WAR
Oliver: 505 AB, 18 HR, 67 R, .222 BA, .338 OBP, .378 SLG, 0.9 WAR
Ike Davis Projection:Steamer: 352 AB, 17 HR, 48 R, .238 BA, .340 OBP, .439 SLG, 1.4 WAR
Oliver: 510 AB, 21 HR, 67 R, .214 BA, .325 OBP, .390 SLG, 0.9 WAR
Let’s first look at the Oliver projections. In terms of WAR, Oliver doesn’t see any difference between Davis and Duda. They have similar projections for the amount time played at first, similar homer totals (slight advantage to Davis), identical run predictions, similar batting average and OBP (with a slight advantage to Duda) and similar slugging with an advantage to Davis. If the Oliver model holds true, then this supports the idea that it doesn’t really matter who the Mets start off at first, that both players are on a rather similar trajectory right now. In this scenario, Davis defense becomes an advantage and Davis’ late start mentality is a disadvantage. To sum up, between Davis and Duda, its a wash.
The Steamer projection disagrees, mainly due to playing time. It predicts 277 AB for Duda and 352 for Davis, in other words, both become platoon players. With that Davis hits seven more homers and slight advantages BA and then OBP. Davis does project to have a higher SLG. Even though Davis has 75 more AB’s in the Steamer model, he is projected to have a 1.4 WAR instead of Duda’s 0.3, a huge difference. Steamer projects more wins by Davis in about 150 less AB’s than the the Oliver model does. If the Steamer model pans out, then Davis is actually the go to first basemen, probably in a platoon with a complement bat like Satin.
Interesting food for thought on a snowday.
The baseball hot stove is about to break out of its figurative and literal cold snap (it’s pretty cold out here in the North East today) as the calendar looks to the first complete week of 2013. Generally the market goes cold between Christmas and New Years, and it did again this year but it seemed a little colder and longer than usual. This is my personal conjecture but I believe it was because:
Despite the coolness of the stove, the Pirates were able to acquire a first basemen, which puts the Mets in a bind because its one less suitor for Davis (and on top of that, I thought Davis would be a nice fit in Pittsburgh). Anyway this leaves the Brewers and the Orioles left as possible landing spots for Davis.
The Brewers have been linked to Davis several times this off season. First for Aoki, who was then traded away and later for Thornberg, who the Brewers are high on.
Rumors with the Orioles have started to swirl to a vague rumor that Oriole execs are pouring over medical records for a trade. The Orioles are also a possible landing spot for Morales, who would then make Davis redundant. Mets Hot Stove took up a possible Davis to the Orioles trade last night and talked about how Britton would make sense in a deal. Both Britton and Davis are former top prospects coming off down years with potential. A swap could work out. Britton also projects to what the Mets want (young pitching).
Trading for Davis makes sense for the Orioles because they could use a bat with pop and they are reluctant to give up a draft pick that signing a player like Morales or Cruz would require. Since the Balfour mishandling, there is also pressure to make a move.
Finally, an interesting note for the Brewers is they are the only team not to sign a free agent yet this off season.
Still, as the weeks move on, it could become a reality that Davis comes to spring training and either has to beat out a Duda/Satin platoon (or join the platoon himself) or raises his value to be traded in the spring.
In 2013 the Mets traded Collin McHugh, spot starter specialist via the minor league system, to the Rockies for Eric Young Jr. The Mets got a player who is one of the closest players they have to a lead-off hitter, and lead off a good amount last year.
Collin McHugh for the Rockies pitched in 4 major league games, pitching 19.0 innings allowing 21 ER with a 1.842 WHIP. In the Colorado system, McHugh pitched 9 games for AAA totaling 46.2 innings with an ERA of 4.63. With those numbers McHugh was DFA’d today. (It should be noted that overall in the minors with the Mets included he had a significantly better 3.42 ERA with a 8.0 K/9)
Young hit .251 for the Mets over 374 AB with 18 2B, 4 3B and a homer while stealing 38 bases on his way to leading the league with 46 stolen bases. His numbers were slightly better (.254) as a lead off hitter.
This results in another smart trade for Sandy Alderson where the Mets did a lot better than the Rockies. The Mets also traded Byrd last season for Vic Black, another player who looks to have a significant role on the team next year. Sandy has slowly been building a depth of players.