213 Miles From Shea

The big headlines in Mets land yesterday had nothing to do with the game as an MRI helped to determine that Wheeler will need Tommy John surgery and will be gone for the 2015 season. This comes on the heels of the Mets losing Edgin to TJ surgery and a season after the Mets lost Harvey and Parnell to the same fate. While it is easy to lament the Mets medical staff for this, this seems to be more of an epidemic around baseball not just isolated to Queens (just look at the Braves the last few years). Anyway, here’s what happened in the game:

• Lagares, Cuddyer and Mayberry all had double hit days. Mayberry is now hitting .480 in spring, Cuddyer .333 and Lagares .440.
• Harvey pitched 4.0 innings, allowing 3 hits, striking out 3 batters and nothing else.
• Syndergaard allowed 2 ER, a walk and struck out 2 over 2.2 innings
• Gilmartin allowed a run over 0.2 innings and 3 hits as he continues to squander his opportunity to make the club

So the Mets have some offensive pieces working, Harvey was working.

The Mets now have another potential position battle open between Syndergaard and Gee for the rotation, lets see what happens!

The Mets started a two day road trip to the opposite coast of Florida yesterday, but that doesn’t matter of course. Anyway here are some notes from the game:

• Flores went 2-4 with a double. He started the game off with two hits and that time he raised his Spring batting average to .500, but he’ll settle with with .462
• Duda went 0-4 with 3 K’s 🙁
• Monell 2-4 with a homer. He’s making a strong case this spring.
• Kirk and Muno both added two hits
• Colon allowed 5 earned over 2. He walked 1 but allowed 7 hits
• Robles allowed an earned run over 1
• Leather Rocket had a second strong outing with a clean inning
• Torres continued to have a quiet and strong spring

Today the Mets continue their road trip playing at the Red Sox Spring home.

For a third straight day the Mets scored over 10 runs, and for the second straight day that total was 13. A lot happened so let’s break it down:

• David Wright hit a mammoth homer over the huge batter’s eye in center field. It was his first homer since July 11th and maybe it’s a good sign that he’s healing.
• Cuddyer and John Mayberry also added in homers. Actually it was good day all around for Cuddyer
• Plawecki hit a bases clearing double when the Mets went from controlling the game to washing the Nationals out
• Lagares added two hits including a double and a triple
• Gee had an unfortunate line. He had two balls hit hard against him early but should have gotten out clean but a misplayed ball between Reynolds and Murphy allowed 2 runs to come in
• Rice, Mejia, Familia and Morris all had good to great relief outings

So how long can the Mets keep up the offense? Right now the team is in a collective hot streak. Can they stretch this out into the season? Is this more indicative of the team developing? Time will tell!

For the second day in a row the Mets put up over 10 runs on their opponents. I guess that’s good. Hard to tell in fake games. Anyway, here’s the key information about yesterday’s game:

• As a leadoff hitter, Granderson collected two hits and two runs with an RBI over 3 AB’s
• Flores was the offensive star of the game going 3-4 with a double and a 3 run bomb, he’s now hitting .455 in Spring
• Wright collected a hit and a walk in two AB’s and crossed the plate twice
• Mayberry got a double, is maintaining a .421 BA
• d’Arnaud had a pair of RBI’s on a double
• Not to be outdone by Flores, Tejada collected a pair of hits including a double over three AB’s
• Niese held the Braves scoreless for 3.2 IP
• Gilmartin allowed a run over 1.2, Leather Rocket was scoreless for 1.0. Probably the best outings by LHP relievers for the Mets in quite some time
• Kirk got a double in 4 AB’s, hitting .440 in spring

Stocks on the Rise:

• The Hitters had a great day. The pitchers had a good day. Happy feelings for everyone!

Stocks on the Fall:

• Flores defense took another hit, his third error of the spring.

The key for the 2015 Mets season will be David Wright. How much can he bounce back? Last year the captain put up the following numbers:

2014: 586 PA, 54 R, 30 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 63 RBI, 8 SB, .269 BA, .324 OBP

And the computers feel David Wright will do the following in 2015:

PECOTA (BP): 532 PA, 63 R, 27 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 63 RBI, 11 SB, .268 BA, .343 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 535 AB, 73 R, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 13 SB, .267 BA, .342 OBP
MLB.com: 524 AB, 74 R, 19 HR, 80 RBI, 13 SB, .288 BA, .364 OBP
ZiPS: 558 PA, 498 AB, 67 R, 28 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 11 SB, .275 BA, .346 OBP
Steamer: 574 PA, 511 AB, 65 R, 29 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, 64 RBI, 9 SB, .274 BA, .345 OBP
ESPN: .273 BA, 63 R, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 11 SB

Average: 555 PA, 517 AB, 67.5 R, 28 2B, 2.3 3B, 15.8 HR, 68.8 RBI, 11.3 SB, .274 BA, .348 OBP

The only areas where the computers see Wright improving is his OBP (significant) and runs scored (also a significant amount). There is an improvement over homers to nearly 16, or twice the amount he hit last year, but that is still a drop off from the numbers you would hope to see from Wright. Also the RBI amounts are also down.

If the Mets are really going to make a run for it this year, Wright will need to hit closer to 20 homers, 80 RBI’s and .290. I don’t think that’s out of the question.

When I checked into the Mets game yesterday, it was 2-2 in the bottom of the 4th. When I checked in last night, the Mets won the game 11-9. None of this is really surprising because it’s a Spring Training game and huge innings are par for the course. Anyway, here are some notes worth noting:

• deGrom did much better than his line (2 ER over 3 IP) suggests. He struck out 5 of the first 6 batters he faced.
• Matz allowed only 1 ER over 3.0 innings. He continues to be the only LHP the Mets have (outside of Niese) actually performing well
• Dario Alvarez had the golden opportunity to impress yesterday with the messy LHP situation, and he allowed 4 ER, walked 3 batters and didn’t get anyone out. This was after the Mets scored 9 runs in an inning
• Granderson and Cuddyer got their first homers of the season.
• Lagares had three hits including a double
• Mayberry finally cooled off going 0-3
• Flores picked up another hit 1-4, Reynolds went 1-1
• Monell picked up another hit

Stocks On The Rise:

• Everyday Flores is picking up a hit, this is a good sign, no matter how pessimistic you want ot be
• Lagares is making the case to be a leadoff hitter if he can maintain an OBP higher than .320. This would require an increase of about 20 points from last year and a significant increase over what the computers think he can do
• Monell is making a strong case to be the back up catcher

Stocks On the Fall:

• Dario Alavrez: You had a great opportunity and didn’t take it.

Daniel Murphy was the Mets lone All-Star last year and probably by most metrics their most consistent hitter. He is also in a walk-year and right now it seems very unlikely that the Mets extend him by the end of the season or sign him to a new deal. Here are his All-Star numbers:

2014: 642 PA, 79 R, 37 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 13 SB, .289 BA, .332 OBP

And his 2015 Projections:

PECOTA (BP): 614 PA, 70 R, 36 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 53 RBI, 14 SB, .279 BA, .318 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 581 AB, 72 R, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 14 SB, .279 BA, .319 OBP
MLB.com: 595 AB, 82 R, 10 HR, 62 RBI, 15 SB, .291 BA, .331 OBP
ZiPS: 643 PA, 602 AB, 84 R, 35 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .286 BA, .326 OBP
Steamer: 621 PA, 576 AB, 67 R, 34 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 11 SB, .277 BA, .319 OBP
ESPN: .282 BA, 80 R, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 16 SB

Average: 626 PA, 589 AB, 76 R, 35 2B, 2.3 3B, 9.3 HR, 59 RBI, 13.8 SB, .282 BA, .323 OBP

Some of the models see a slight increase in numbers, almost all show a drop in the percentage stats like BA and OBP and they average out to a line that is basically the same as his last year. This makes sense because he’s at the point in his career where it would be rare for him to come out incredibly strong or incredibly weak. He’s been pretty consistent over the last couple of years and it would be wrong to think he would be anything else but more of the same from last year.

The question is over the next 4 years, he’ll be more of the same and then start to decline slowly while playing average defense at best. His offense is better than average at second and will be, at least in terms of consistent projections, for the next few years. Is he worth signing to a large deal? Is he more valuable to another team?

The Mets dropped another Spring Training Game yesterday (but that doesn’t really matter) as two of the key Mets pitchers got their second game of the pre-season under their belts.

• Harvey held the Marlins scoreless over the first two innings, allowed one in the next 2/3rds and then a runner charged to him scored in relief making his line 2.2, 2 ER, BB, 2 K
• Syndergaard held the Marlins scoreless over 2.2 innings and struck out 5 batters, which is awesome
• Scott Rice and the Mets had an inning to forget in the 7th. In 0.2 innings, he allowed 3 hits, 5 runs, 4 earned and two walks assisted by a few errors including an error by Matt Reynolds at short and one by Scott Rice, so the Mets LHP woes continue

Stocks on the Rise:

• Tejada finally had a big game going 2-3, R, 2 RBI and 2 2B
• Reynolds went 2-5
• Monell went 1-1, continues to hit
• Gee had a clean 1.1 innings of relief

Stocks on the Fall:

• Reynolds is still a major outsider right now and not breaking into the conversation yet of coming up north after camp, the error doesn’t help
• The Mets LHP situation

The second of the Mets two off season signings this winter was for a 4th OF with more pop, Mayberry, effectively ending any chance of Eric Young coming back. His time was split last year between the minors, the Phillies and Toronto and as BP pointed out, he was used more against RHP, which made no sense since his strength is against LHP:

2014 Phillies: 138 PA, 11 R, 7 2B, 6 HR, 21 RBI, .213 BA, .304 OBP
2014 Blue Jays: 30 PA, 4 R, 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI, .208 BA, .333 OBP

Let’s see what the computers think he’ll do for the Mets:

PECOTA (BP): 250 PA, 27 R, 12 2B, 7 HR, 27 RBI, .232 BA, .293 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 201 AB, 23 R, 7 HR, 26 RBI, .229 BA, .290 OBP
MLB.com: 133 AB, 11 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, .226 BA, .295 OBP
ZiPS: 333 PA, 302 AB, 38 R, 17 2B, 10 HR, 40 RBI, .228 BA, .294 OBP
Steamer: 217 PA, 196 AB, 20 R, 28 2B, 9 HR, 22 RBI, .224 BA, .289 OBP
ESPN: .227 BA, 14 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI

Average: 267 PA, 208 AB, 22 R, 19 2B, 6.8 HR, 23 RBI, .2276 BA, .292 OBP

The models are all over the place with how much playing time Mayberry will get. For the most part, I feel the average is an accurate representation, which are similar numbers to a Recker style player. What I’m worried about with these numbers is the amount of similar players the Mets may have on the field at once. For example if the Mets field a team with Mayberry and Granderson at the corner and Recker behind the plate, that is a really low BA day for the team, although not too different to the team the Mets fielded at times last year.

The Mets dropped the spring training game 3-2 to the Braves yesterday (does this cue another meeting from Fred Wilpon worrying about the direction of the team?), and there isn’t much to write about, but here are somethings that are worth noting:

• Colon pitched 3 innings allowing 3 ER. However his first two innings were scoreless, so take that as you will.
• While Kirk didn’t get any hits, he did pick up two walks as he continues to live the spring on the base paths
• Mayberry picked up another two hits
• Flores picked up a double in 3 ABs, Reynolds picked up a hit.
• Herrera finally picked up a hit
• In the need for an LHP to perform well, Dario Alvarez had a clean inning with a strikeout.

Stocks on the Rise:

• Mayberry continues to hit. He’s probably working himself into a position to be the first bat off the bench in games he doesn’t start, but I think he was already that before the spring started
• Dario Alvarez, not just by today’s performance but with other options looking slightly to more substantially questionable right now, just by virtue of him being a south paw his stock is on the rise

Stocks on the Fall:

• No one on the bubble had a particularly awful day compared to a player they are competing with.