213 Miles From Shea

Today let’s take a look at our amazing center fielder, Juan Lagares. It is difficult to remember that a year ago, the Mets brass still didn’t consider Lagares as a starter, despite his defense. There is talk in the league that his bat could take the next step this year making him a serious All-Star contender. Last year:

2014: 452 PA, 46 R, 24 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 47 RBI, 13 SB, .281 BA, .321 OBP

And the 2015 Projections:

PECOTA (BP): 433 PA, 46 R, 20 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 10 SB, .253 BA, .292 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 548 AB, 62 R, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 13 SB, .252 BA, .292 OBP
MLB.com: 520 AB, 70 R, 6 HR, 54 RBI, 2o SB, .271 BA, .311 OBP
ZiPS: 542 PA, 58 R, 25 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB, .264 BA, .305 OBP
Steamer: 584 PA, 534 AB, 52 R, 27 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 12 SB, .249 BA, .290 OBP
ESPN: .259 BA, 60 R, 6 HR, 51 RBI, 17 SB

Average: 519 PA, 534 AB, 58 R, 24 2B, 3.6 3B, 6 HR, 47.8 RBI, 14 SB, .258 BA, .298

Basically, the computers disagree with people. Where people around the team think Lagares is going to take the next step, the computer models think he is going to regress slightly closer to his average numbers. They expect his runs to increase, due to offense around him (not sure if that make senses) but a pretty large regression in BA and OBP. Let’s see what happens!

The Mets got trounced yesterday against the Marlins 13-2. Fred Wilpon had a meeting with Terry Collins for about 20 minutes after the game as reported by the beat writers to talk about a variety of topics including concerns about velocities, LHP options and walks.

Does Fred know its March 9th? I’m not exactly happy about losing 13-2 either, but we are still at the start of spring training games, when players are trying out new things and building back their arm strength. In two weeks, if pitchers velocities were still low and if they were still struggling to hit their marks, then I’d be more concern, but right now that seems overblown.

Now to be hypocritical, and break apart this game:

• Wheeler allowed 6 ER over 1.2 innings in Spring debut, although he was happy, saying he was trying some new things.
• Edgin allowed a run over 0.1 inning, his velocity was one a few people were concerned about
• Familia allowed a hit and struck out 2 over a scoreless inning
• Mejia allowed a run over an inning
• Gilmartin allowed 3 ER over 1.0 innings
• Black had a clean inning with a strikeout
• Cecchini 1-3, 2B, RBI
• den Dekker 2-2, 2 R
• Reynolds 1-2

Stock Rising:

• Reynolds is making the most of his early spring showing that he can be a SS option down the road if something happens to Flores or Tejada
• den Dekker has a tough battle against Kirk for the last OF spot on the bench. Kirk will most likely win out, but den Dekker is doing his best to make it not a run away

Stock Falling:

• No LHP yet (Edgin, Gilmartin, Leather Rocket) has stood out so far in the first week of games.

The Red Sox made an overnight trip to the East Coast of Florida, starting play with the Mets. This is excellent so we don’t have to see the Braves and Nationals 5,930 times in Spring. Here’s what you need to know:

• Lagares had 2 hit day also bringing in an RBI
• Granderson 1-3 with a double
• Cuddyer had an 0-3 day at the plate
• Kirk 3-4, 2 R, 2B. Dude is killing the ball this spring
• Flores had another 1-3 day with an RBI
• The Mets pitching staff walked 10 batters
• Niese allowed 2 ER over 2.2 innings with 3 hits and a walk
• Robles continued to struggle allowed 3 ER over 1.0 innings
• Mazzoni bounced backed with a scoreless inning
• Ynoa bounced back with a scoreless inning with a hit and a strikeout.

Stocks on the Rise:

• Flores is getting hits and didn’t record an error for a second straight day
• Kirk is seeing the ball so well this spring. He and Mayberry are making the most spring so far

Stocks Falling:

• The Mets pitching staff had 10 walks. Yeeeesh. Made for a long game but at least Cliff Floyd is entertaining
• Robles is really struggling in spring. So far he has an ERA over 22.50.

Even in a fake game, it feels good to beat the Braves, hopefully the Mets will make a habit of it this Spring. Here’s what you need to know from this game:

• Dilson Herrera had another 0-3 day at the plate.
• Mayberry went 1-1 with a R and 2 walks
• d’Arnaud went 0-4 and left 6 players on base
• Flores 1-3, 2 R, 2B
• Conforto 3-4, 3 RBI, 2B. All of the offense in the game tracks back to former first round pick
• deGrom pitched the longest of all Mets pitchers so far this spring, logging 3 innings allowing 2 hits and one earned run.
• Bowman had two scoreless allowing 2 hits and a walk
• Gilmartin allowed one hit in a scoreless inning

Stocks on the Rise:

• Mayberry continues to see the ball well in spring
• Flores showed some offense
• Conforto had a fantastic day at the plate. He’s not in the picture for this season but he’s going to rise.
• On a day where Leather Rocket had a tough performance across the state, Gilmartin had a good performance trying to be the second LHP

Stocks Falling:

• Dilson Herrera is not really competing for a starting job, but it would be nice to see him get some hits
• d’Arnaud is not going to lose his starting job in spring, but it would be nice for him to get some hits.

The first of the two games the Mets played on Saturday saw them go into a deep hole, and then almost come out of it as the Mets lost 8-7 to the Marlins. Here are key take-aways from the game:

• Muno went 2-3, 2 R. He’s getting a lot of looks early this spring
• Allen 1-4, 2 R, BB, HR, 3 RBI. This year he’s a little farther down the first base depth chart, so early opportunities are important
• Campbell 2-4, R, RBI
• Matz had two clean innings with 2 K’s
• Montero allowed 4 hits and 2 ER, 2 BB over 1.1 innings
• Leather Rocket got one out and allowed 5 earned
• Gee had a scoreless 2.2 with one hit

Stocks on the rise:

• Soup continues to show that he should be that 25th player on the roster.
• Gee has been good so far in camp

Stocks that are falling:

• Tejada had another 0-for something day at the plate
• Leather Rocket had a bad start in a spring where he is trying to be come the second LHP
• With so many starters trying to break in, Montero did not need the start he had

One former Met has made his way to DC, Mike Carp.

He was drafted in 2004 and joined a collection of Mets that had similar talents at the time (like Murphy and Jacobs). Out of the group, Murphy went onto be an All Star. Carp was traded to the Mariners where he played for a few season before being traded to the Red Sox and most recently the Nationals. He has a career .254 BA and a .330 OBP.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

Two former Mets have gone south on 95 to play for the Phillies: Aaron Harang and Jeff Francoeur, and interesting combination.

Aaron Harang made some spots starts for the Mets in 2013, and last year became a critical part of the rotation. It was the first time since 2007 that he was able to go over 200 innings. This year, the veteran will try to break into the Phillies rotation.

Jeff Francoeur was a hot shot prospect with the Braves. The Mets got him in 2009 for Ryan Church. The man with a smile was traded to the Rangers in 2010 and then signed with the Royals during the off-season. He then later signed with the Giants, then the Indians, the Padres and now the Phillies. Good Luck Partner.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

Miami! The former home of Jose Reyes! But still the home of three former Mets.

First, the most famous one, Jordany Valdespin. Valdespin, the man right now, broke out with the Mets and while he had a lot of energy and had some clutch hits, he ultimately couldn’t back up his attitude with play, and now he is with the Marlins. It will be tough for him to break through the Marlins as they are stacked with outfielders.

The second one would be Ryan Ried who was drafted by the Rays in 2006 and then signed with the Pirates in 2012. In 2013 the Mets selected him off waivers and then he signed on with the Marlins this year. The pitcher played in 7 games with the Pirates in 2013 and did well, he just never factored into the Mets plans.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

The Mets won today. But that doesn’t matter.

What matters is Harvey pitched and he looked good. He hit 96-98 mph on the fastball, worked in his slider and curveball and struck out 3 batters over two clean innings. He was pumped after the game, d’Arnaud was pumped, all of Mets land was pumped. Here are the notes to take home from the game today:

• Harvey looked good. Already said, but it needs saying again.
• Syndergaard had one strong inning and one not so strong inning. d’Arnaud felt he was overthrowing in his second inning of work.
• Familia allowed an unearned run with two hits, Mejia allowed just one hit. Honestly it wouldn’t be an outing for Mejia without something on the WHIP.
• Granderson drove in Lagares. Wouldn’t that be great to see on a routine basis.
• Mayberry had a hit and a walk
• Flores had two hits
• Murphy left the game with a bruised hand

Players with Rising Stocks:

• Mayberry continue to shows that he can be a productive 4th OF through the first two spring games
• Flores showed that he can hit

Players with Falling Stock:

• Tejada still hasn’t done much. Today he added an 0-3 performance.
• Flores (yes he’s also rising), but he made an error.

Many Baseball Analysts have been saying for the majority of the off-season that in order for the Mets to do well in 2015, they need bounce back years from David Wright and today’s projection player, Curtis Granderson. Granderson wasn’t terrible last year, but he wasn’t necessarily good either. This year he’s been reunited with Kevin Long and there are reasons to hope that he’ll have a more Granderson year.

2014 Stats: 654 PA, 73 R, 27 2B, 2 3B, 20 HR, 66 RBI, .227 BA, .326 OBP

And let’s take a look at the projections:

PECOTA (BP): 538 PA, 74 R, 18 2B, 4 3B, 21 HR, 63 RBI, .227 BA, .315 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 515 AB, 73 R, 24 HR, 77 RBI, .227 BA, .316 OBP
MLB.com: 511 AB, 72 R, 22 HR, 66 RBI, .237 BA, .322 OBP
ZiPS: 521 PA, 71 R,  19 2B, 3 2B, 21 HR, 60 RBI, .231 BA, .319 OBP
Steamer: 535 PA, 465 BA, 60 R, 20 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 56 RBI, .222 BA, .313 OBP
ESPN: .231 BA, 77 R, 23 HR, 65 RBI

Average: 531 PA, 497 AB, 71 R, 19 2B, 3 3B, 22 HR, 64.5 RBI, .229 BA, .317 OBP

From a quick look, it looks like the models have a modest rise in homers, a significant drop in doubles (so something will have to give, that generally doesn’t split like) and essentially a constant BA and a drop in OBP. There is also a big drop in Plate Appearances. I’m not sure why that is though. It’s either he had an abnormally high PA last year or maybe the Mets rotate a little more in the OF with Mayberry, but I think its more the former.

In all honesty, I would be disappointed with the average stat line out of Curtis Granderson, but it’s way better than  a regression.