213 Miles From Shea

Seth Lugo was the back up plan going into 2017. Then everything fell apart quickly and the Mets needed Lugo. Except he also went down. 2017 was a mess. Let’s take a look at what the computers saw going into the season:

2017 Stats:
7-5, 19 G, 18 GS, 4.71 ERA, 101.1 IP, 25 BB, 85 K, 1.372 WHIP

The optimism around him and his curveball was shot down by the computer programs going into 2017. And it turns out the projections were more correct than fans. He did worse than the projections but not by much, especially in WHIP. Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS and Steamer all did a good job figuring out his numbers. Also the average of the projections nailed down his innings of work well, which was much higher than anticipated going into the 2017 season.

2017 was a rough year to project pitchers in the Mets bullpen whether it was due to injury or misuse by a manager. Familia falls into multiple categories. he lead the league in games finished in 2015 and 2016 and came into 2017 injured and suspended. Ultimately he would under-perform compared to projections.

2017 Stats:
1-1, 26 G, 24.2 IP, 4.38 ERA, 15 BB, 25 K, 1.459 WHIP

The computers assumed that Familia was going to pitch a whole season, which we already knew would be wrong thanks to the suspension. Even with that, he fell back more than any computer thought he would. When I read the Steamer projection, I thought they were way off base but they ended up being the closest to reality.

Hopefully 2018 will be better.

Earlier this month we posted two articles here and here reviewing all of the Mets options at 2nd and 3rd for the upcoming season including Cabrera, Reyes, Nunez, Walker, Harrison, Frazier, Phillips and Escobar.

Our conclusion back then was the best move for the Mets would be to trade for Harrison, sign Frazier and then move Cabrera. These articles were written before I attended the QBC, heard Nimmo talk and now I never want to get rid of him. That would nix any trade with the Pirates for Harrison.

With Harrison off the table, the best move for the Mets was signing Frazier and moving Cabrera over. Cabrera is not good at third base (1 DRS last year, but -2.6 UZR), Nunez is even worse at second (-4 DRS, -1.8 UZR). Frazier has a 10 DRS and 6.7 UZR last year which makes up for Cabrera’s poor play at second base (plus each of the alternatives for second are terrible outside of Harrison, click the top links).

Frazier isn’t a knockout, blockbuster type signing, but he is the signing the Mets need. There is too much focus on the lack of stolen bases on this team. The jury is still out on the advantage of having a team that steal bases (considering Keith Law’s Smart Baseball, the jury may have already decided and the answer is no, they don’t work).  The advantage that Nunez had compared to other players (Reyes, Walker, etc) was not wearing a Mets jersey in the last three years. That’s the Nunez appeal.

The ToddFather solves a need for the Mets and the Mets got him for a great price and a relative good length of contract.

Now that the Mets have a bargain contract for Frazier, they should do 1-2 more moves. Sign Alex Cobb and Tony Watson. If the the Mets sign both of them they can put together a strong squad going into the season.

Addison Reed was the savior of the Mets pen last year before he was traded to the Red Sox where he did not nearly have the success than in Queens. Reed is now a Twin but his time in New York was fantastic. Let’s see how the computers handled his 2017:

2017 Stats:
2-3, 2.84 ERA, 77 G, 76.0 IP, 15 BB, 76 K, 1.053 WHIP

The projections did understand that Reed wouldn’t be able to put up the insane line he did in 2016 again, but they still underestimated Reed. He performed better in both ERA and WHIP.

Shockingly, Baseball Prospectus was so wrong about Reed expecting a complete regression with a 4.16 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Maybe they thought Reed was Salas or Robles. (Insert smiley face emoji).

I’ll take the suspense out of this article. Robles did not perform nearly the level that the computers thought he could. But you probably already knew that as you are probably pointing your hand up to the sky right now for a fly ball that’s actually a homer.

2017 Stats:
7-5, 46 G, 4.92 ERA, 29 BB, 60 K, 1.341 WHIP

The computers thought he would take a step back, but he took three of four leaps backwards last season. The Baseball Prospectus projection was closest but even they struggled to grip how much he was going to slide.

I’m very curious to read the Baseball Prospectus write up for Robles granted this slide and where he fits in the 2018 plans.

For a third straight day we look at the 2017 projections for a 2017 Met who is no longer with the team. Today is Sean Gilmartin who Cardinals claimed off waivers from the Mets back in June.

2017 Stats:
0-0, 2 G, 3.1 IP, 13.50 ERA, 1 BB, 4 K, 2.700 WHIP

The real story here is if the projections saw Gilmartin get playing time. The answer is they did, with the exception of ESPN which was the closest and saw he would struggle in a limited exposure. ZiPS and FBG had him as a serviceable pitcher, but he never got the chance to show that with the Cardinals last year.

The rub, of course, is that if the Mets didn’t mismanage his options, he probably makes 5-7 starts by the end of the season when the Mets lost nearly every starter due to injury.

You know what is fun to do? And by fun I mean the exact opposite of fun? Read what I wrote about Salas before last season. I was so wrong.

Also wrong: every projection.

2017 Stats:
2-2, 61 G, 58.2 IP, 22 BB, 56 K, 5.22 ERA, 1.517 WHIP

Salas was released by the Mets in August and finished the season with the Angels. (As of 1/15 when this was written, he is still a free agent). He finished 2016 with great numbers and all of the projections saw it as not sustainable having him he regress to a 3.8 2 WRA and 1.19 WHIP.

But they were all wrong. Salas was really, really bad last year.

I love baseball. I love to eat. I love nachos.

In this, I’m not abnormal from most people.

I’m not picky with nachos either. I will eat any nachos. Nachos are great. Maybe the world needs more nachos. Maybe the Mets will play better and stay healthier if they have nachos. Wait. Forget that last part.

There are a lot of places to get nachos at Citi Field. My favorite is the Taqueria stand behind the apple. I ate half the nachos before remembering that I wanted to take a picture for an article I was going to write 6 months later. This may be a bad joke. It’s probably not. It’s hilarious.

Let’s get nachos. I’m serious.

The most important member of the bullpen last year, and the one with the best humor: Jerry Blevins.

2017 Stats:
6-0, 75 G, 49.0 IP, 2.94 ERA, 24 BB, 69 K, 1.367 WHIP

Jerry’s numbers regressed slightly from 2016, but not by much. The projections were just way off of Jerry’s performance though. First, they forgot it was Terry Collins running pen, or rather, there’s no way to program Terry’s management into a computer so he was used way more often. Second, His performance was way better than projected. The best at it was ESPN but it doesn’t matter.

Bullpen pitchers I have a feeling now writing three of these projection reviews will be the most difficult for projection programs to handle.

Erik Goeddel was another member of the Mets 2017 bullpen that got used way more than thought going into the season. Only two publications bothered to give him a full preview (ESPN and ZiPS).

He won’t be back with the Mets after a third straight year of appearing in over 30 games as he signed a contract with a non-roster invite to Rangers camp.

2017 Stats:
0-1, 33 G, 29.0 IP, 5.28 ERA, 11 BB, 33 K, 1.345 WHIP

ZiPS thought he would have a solid season. ESPN not as much. Turns out ESPN was right on Erik. On a pure, did the projections get it right account, the answer is no. The two projections had him pitching a little too much and little more effectively than his numbers, despite his WHIP being lower than projected. (his FIP was 5.61 last year, so his ugly ERA was earned).