213 Miles From Shea

Opening Day is finally here! The Mets look to return to the post-season this year after a disappointing, injury filled 2017 campaign. Last year the team had a lot of promise in Spring but lost player after player ensuring all Mets fans know mantra “You can never have too much pitching depth”. With a new manager and not many expectations that exist outside of the New York bubble, the Mets will kick off 2018 against the Cardinals.

The Mets will send out Noah Syndergaard for Opening Day. Last year he was 1-2 over 7 starts and 30.1 innings with a 2.97 ERA although that doesn’t tell the whole story. He was full speed throughout April until the 30th. He allowed 5 runs over 1.1 innings, tore his lat and was out until the end of September where he came back for two games pitching 3 innings allowing only one hit. Spring doesn’t mean anything but he was on cruise control in March pitching in 5 games and 20.0 innings allowed only 4 runs, 3 earned (1.35 ERA) with 23 K’s vs 6 walks. The last time he faced the Cardinals was July 2016 where he allowed 3 runs, 2 earned over 7 hits and 6.0 innings with 8 K’s. The Cardinals have the following numbers against Thor:

• Ozuna 3-14, HR, 4 K
• Fowler 1-5, BB
• Gyorko 1-6, HR, 3K
• Molina 2-6, 2B, K
• Pham 2-4
• Carpenter 0-3, K
• Martinez 0-2

The Mets draw two-time All-Star Carlos Martinez who was 12-11 over 32 games last year logging 205.0 innings posting a 3.64 ERA, 3.91 FIP and 1.220 WHIP. Overall it was a slight step back statistically for Martinez as in the two previous seasons he posted a 3.01/3.04 ERA and a 3.21/3.61 FIP. He pitched against the Mets in early July last year allowing 5 runs on 7 hits in 5.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Martinez:

• Gonzalez 3-17, HR
• Bruce 4-19, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB
• Frazier 3-15, 6 K
• Cespedes 4-12, 2B, HR, 3 K
• Reyes 4-13, 2B, HR
• Cabrera 2-6, 2B
• d’Arnaud 1-5, 2K

Who’s Hotter than a Underground Subway Station in August Right Now?
I know it’s spring training but in 38 PA’s, Cespedes is hitting .324/.368/.882 right now with 6 homers.

Who’s Colder than an April night baseball game in Queens?
In 58 PA’s this spring, Gonzalez is hitting .207/.270/.293.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets season rests, in large part, on Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. Between injuries and flailing, the Mets Big 5 rotation of aces looks more like Syndergaard and deGrom as a fantastic 1 and 2 followed by hopeful renaissance.

Syndergaard got off to a great start last year and then at the end of April, in the midst of his worst start of the season (probably due to ignoring an injury, we can play the blame game on that later), Noah tore his lat and looked like he was done for the season. He came back and pitched 3.0 innings in the last week of the season to get some positive vibes going into the off-season. Here’s what the computers think of him:

In a press conference yesterday, Noah said he wanted to reach the 200 innings mark this year. Every projection disagrees with him. For the most part, the projections see him being a dominating pitcher with a strong K/BB ratio and a strong WHIP.

If Noah posts a 2.96 ERA, 2.71 FIP and 1.12 WHIP at the end of the season, and if he can break the projections for innings pitched, the Mets will have fun every five days.

Today Noah looks to take the first step. The only guarantee: Noah’s start will be over analyzed during the long off day that follows tomorrow.

Last year the Mets #1 position prospect got called up. Rosario brought hope to a team that was floundering and a fan base that was looking for something to be positive about. For the last several years the Mets had been suffering horrible short stop defense. Now the Mets have Rosario.

We know his defense is great, but how’s his bat?

Ultimately the computer models see a sizable increase in OBP, a huge part of his game missing last year. The Mets don’t need him to be a slugger but need him to get on base for the other sluggers in the lineup. Depending on where he hits he will either get a lot of balls in the zone if he’s surrounded by power, or pitchers may pitch around him if he is near the pitcher.

I’m excited to watch his development this season. My gut tells me the projections low ball Rosario, but I think I’m filled with hope and optimism, going with my heart not my baseball brain.

The Mets start another season with a familiar situation in the outfield: the Mets do not have a regular, everyday, actual center fielder. When the Mets field Bruce/Conforto/Cespedes, all three are corner outfielders. Nimmo could be in line for a break out season and after his spring he deserves a long look.

But there is always Juan Lagares. He is worth so much defensively that the Mets just need him to hit a little better and stay healthier a bit longer to make a big difference. Let’s take a look at what the computers think he will do this year:

On average, it looks like the computers see Juan putting up a similar year compared to last year. That’s fine. But if Nimmo doesn’t break out, or at least perform where he should on average, and if Juan is below last season at the plate, the Mets will have to struggle defensively to put the best line up out there. That’s a shame with the pitching staff the Mets have.

There’s a lot to like about Juan. I hope this year is the year.

The Mets just claimed Bryce Brentz from the Pirates and he’s a left fielder. Still reeling from the last few seasons, and operating from a position of no amount of depth is good enough, the Mets picked up Brentz even though the Mets outfield corps is 95% corner outfielders.

Brentz, 29, was drafted by the Indians in 2007, went to Middle Tennessee State and was drafted by the Red Sox in 2010. He debuted with the Red Sox in 2014, he played in 9 games getting 26 appearances slashing .308/.308/.385. He didn’t make it back to the majors until 2016 where he had 64 plate appearances over 25 games slashing .279/.313/.377.

In February he was acquired by the Pirates where in 17 games and 47 appearances he hit .250/.362/.350 and Baseball Reference projects him this season to have 206 pleat appearances hitting .258/.325/.414.

Of course this is just essentially his stats sheet. You can’t discuss an introduction to Bryce Brentz without an incident in 2013. Around the time he received an invitation to big league camp, he shot himself in the leg while cleaning his gun. Separate from that, he has had a plague of injuries over the last 4 years hampering his development. He could still be a platoon bat but doesn’t project to be that important for the 2018 Mets.

However, in a season where Conforto is coming back from injury, Lagares/Cespedes are always an injury risk, Brentz does give the Mets some insurance from tapping someone Triple AAA who is a lesser quality than Brentz.

If I told you the Mets had a catcher last year that got on base at a .350 clip, what would you say? If I then told you it was only 118 appearances would you then throw soup at me and say I’m extrapolating too much? Maybe.

The computers do not see Plawecki returning to those insane for him 2017 numbers, but If he got on base at a .320 clip, that would be a massive improvement from what we’ve seen overall. There has already been reporting this year (thank you The Athletic) that over the last several years he has changed his batting stance. He couldn’t keep up at the major level and was hitting standing up. He’s crouching more now.

With d’Arnaud, the Mets need Plawecki to step up this season. There’s reason to be happy with Plawecki in 2018. My gut tells me that catching is d’Arnaud’s job to lose. He should be catching 75% of the time but if Plawecki starts off strong maybe it becomes more 50/50. And as always health is a major question.

A reunion with Jose Reyes seemed inevitable all off-season. For most of the off-season the Mets needed at least a second or third basemen. The Mets also had a depleted bench in terms of players with major league experience. No team was really biting on Jose Reyes (and a bunch of other players at well). Resigning Jose Reyes just seemed destined.

Then one day Jose Reyes drove to Citi Field and snapped the emoji with the hand on the chin (the inquisitive one?). The whole fan base knew at that time Jose Reyes was coming back. Later in the day the Mets signed him.

When the Mets signed him, I didn’t make an opinion about how I felt with the decision. If Reyes was going to start, then this was a bad move for the Mets. If the Mets were going to acquire a new infielder, making Jose Reyes a bench player and displacing Matt Reynolds from the 25-man, then this would be a good move.

The Mets signed Frazier, Reyes is now a bench player, and now we can really look at these projections:

Since Reyes is going to be a bench player and we don’t need to worry about his defense that much, I’m not that upset with Reyes riding the bench. The computers see his slash line returning to normal a bit, a slightly higher average, a similar OBP and a drop in slugging.

What computers really struggled with is playing time. Only ESPN and Steamer seeing a reduced role for Reyes (I think both were ran after other infielders were signed by the Mets). It’s also crazy to think about how much playing time he got with the Mets last year. I never thought he would get above 500 plate appearances nor did I think he would get 15 homers.

I’m still not happy the Mets gave Reyes a second chance. I still find it hard to root for Reyes. That’s never going to go away. This doesn’t fit with the article as a whole but it needed to be said.

From the jump, I need to be honest. I am biased towards wanting Dom Smith to be the first basemen of the Mets. It’s a combination of following him since he’s been drafted, loving younger players, and his personality. I want the answer at first base to be Dom Smith. Right now, it seems like the Mets have done a lot this off-season to make the Mets answer to not be Dom Smith (getting Gonzalez, suggesting that Bruce can play first, almost making fun of Smith at pressers).

Let’s take a look at his stats:

Dom Smith surprised us in two ways in 2017. His defense left a lot to be desired at the major league level, the first time that has been true for Dom Smith. The ball exploded off bat when he made contact, knocking in 9 homers in limited at bats. Something else he rarely did at any other level.

I deeply believe that Dom Smith gets a lot better this year with playing time. He has had made a mistake this spring (showing up late) and was unlucky and got injured but I still feel he is the answer at first base. He dropped a lot of weight over the season and is hopefully motivated with Peter Alonso knocking at the door behind him.

Then again, as stated earlier, I don’t know how much of what I’m saying is due to a Dom Smith bias. I want him to be the answer and I don’t know if that is clouding my judgment? I guess we’ll find out this season.

The Mets lineup this year may be saved by Brandon Nimmo. Or Not? Let’s look at the projections:

Brandon Nimmo stole my heart at the Queens Baseball Convention this year. Before the Convention, I was on board trading Nimmo to the Pirates for Harrison or to the Indians for Kipnis. I wanted this solution even knowing that Brandon Nimmo was one of a handful of outfielders on the Mets roster. I was desperate for a better infield.

Nimmo was just amazing in his panel session. He may be the most genuine athlete I’ve ever listened to speak. But can he play?

The answer is pointing towards: yes!

Nimmo posted a ridiculous OBP last year in a small sample size and although the models and projections seeing him regressing. If he can get on base at the .338 average OBP, which isn’t terrible, then why not lead off for the 1-2 months before Conforto comes back? I want to root for Nimmo after hearing him speak and that is clouding my judgment but maybe the Mets need a guy like Nimmo for fans to fall in love with.

Travis had a good year in terms of power numbers, but a bad year in pretty much everything else as the oft injured catcher was able to stay on the field for 376 PAs. At this point in d’Arnaud’s career he is becoming a catcher who plays below average time, mostly out of injury concerns.

Here are what the computers think he will do this year:

Rene Rivera started to give d’Arnaud a run for his money in value to the team over the last couple of seasons. Now this is Travis and Kevin’s job where step forwards by either of them can edge out the others.

Travis will face additional pressures this year from the minors in both Nido (low threat) and Lobaton (spring threat). The projections see a step back in the correct direction for OBP and a step back for power. They also see him putting similar, if not less, playing time compared to last year.

The Mets don’t need d’Arnaud to be great. There are a lot of bats in the lineup now. They need him to be serviceable though.