213 Miles From Shea

Last year I included Paul Sewald in projections even though he wasn’t on the 40 man roster. With the state of the Mets last year, it ended up being a good idea to project him since the Mets had to go deep in their reserves.

Only ZiPS bothered to project him last year:

2017 Stats:
0-6, 57 G, 65.1 IP, 4.55 ERA, 21 BB, 69 K, 1.209 WHIP

He got more major league action last than anyone expected. Ignore his ERA as his FIP was 3.74 which was better than his ERA projection (his WHIP was better too). It’s not clear exactly what his role will be next year but hopefully he uses his better than thought 2017 (where he wasn’t even projected on most websites) as experience moving forward.

Norichika Aoki has signed a 3 year deal with the Yakult Swallows yesterday, bringing the Japanese player back to Japan. Aoki was purchased by the Brewers from the Swallows in 2012. The next season he was traded to the Royals and then signed with the Giants. He then would be signed by teh Mariners, selected off waivers by the Astros traded to the Blue Jays, released, and finally signed by the Mets on September 2nd to finish the 2017 season.

At the time the Mets were desperate for outfield help (and to some degree, still are) as they traded away Bruce/Granderson, were without Cespedes/Conforto.

The next line originally said “Aoki quickly became a fan favorite” but honestly, in retrospect, it’s hard to tell.

Aoki was new. The Mets hadn’t acquired a major league player outside of Ramos to that point who wasn’t on the Mets roster previously. As we are seeing with this off-season, the idea of a “new” player is more exciting than a better player who was already with the team (example – Bruce is a fine player, but assembles the same team that the Mets have previously had).

Aoki had the Ghostbusters song as his walk-up music. Aoki was a ray of positive light for the month probably because he hit well for the Mets. He posted a .284/.371/.373 over 116 PA’s. In the season, 258 PA’s, he hit .274/.319/.402. He got on base, he scored runs, he was the player the Mets needed on a team going nowhere.

So Aoki was popular. But the team wasn’t. He was a fan-favorite on ship sinking into a lake of mediocrity, a season that fans will quiz each other about as an obscure, unmemorable year.

It was fun having Aoki on the Mets. Wishing him the best of luck on his homecoming.

It’s our last hitter in this series! Tomorrow we’ll start reviewing pitchers vs their projections. Cespedes was going to be the critical piece to last year’s success. Then the entire rotation got injured and the lineup didn’t matter as much. Once Cespedes got going last year, he took off, but this was short lived as injuries bounced him back and forth a bit before completely taking him out.

2017 Stats:
81 G, 321 PA, 291 AB, 46 R, 85 H, 17 2B, 17 HR, .292 BA, .352 OBP, .540 SLG

Cespedes would have shattered his projected numbers if he played a full season instead of a half one. By the time he was sidelined, he was hitting 20 points above his projection, getting on base 25 points higher and slugging over 40 points higher. Not a single projection thought he would get to his average and OBP from the 2016 season, let alone surpass those numbers. MLB.com gave him the best shot.

This article was written on 1/15. On 1/15 the Mets still don’t have a second basemen. Neil Walker is still a free agent. There’s the possibility a reunion occurs. This also means the Mets quite literally are putting the band back together again for 2017.

Quickly after Walker returned from injury this year, he was traded. Thus the fate of most veterans on the 2017 team.

2017 Stats:
111 G, 448 PA, 385 AB, 59 R, 102 H, 21 2B, 14 HR, .265 BA, .362 OBP, .439 SLG

Walker slid on power last year but made up for it by getting on base more. The average of the projections were pretty close to the Walker slash line nearly getting average and slugging but missing the increased walks that Walker picked up. Walker is a good example of the average of the projections matching reality rather than any particular one.

Conforto! The Mets 2017 All-Star! The outfielder who the Mets didn’t mark as a starter on Opening Day. Conforto was having a career year until he swung so hard that he literally tore himself, knocking him out until realistically May of this year. Let’s take a look at the 2017 projections and then the 2017 stats.

2017 Stats:
109 G, 440 PA, 373 AB, 72 R, 104 H, 20 2B, 27 HR, .279 BA, .384 OBP, .555 SLG

The projections did a good job nailing down the amount of playing time Conforto would receive. It’s disappointing though how wrong the average was about him. He hit about 20 points higher, got on base 60 points higher than projected and slugged more than 100 points above the average projection. Even Baseball Prospectus was wrong about Conforto’s success. ZiPS was the closest with a slugging only 90 points off and at least having him hit 24 homers (even though that was low).

The Mets 2018 depends on a healthy Conforto. Hopefully the Mets signing of Bruce will allow the Mets to not rush Conforto’s return.

Last year the Mets came into the season with 4 corner outfielders in Bruce, Conforto, Cespedes and Granderson. While the Mets have a clearer picture now, it was confusing for a while in April and May last year finding playing time for everyone.

Granderson was traded to the Dodgers and ultimately left off their World Series roster. I love Curtis, even when the stats say I shouldn’t. Granderson was coming off of a season where he hit 30 homer.s

2017 Stats:
147 G, 527 PA, 449 AB, 74 R, 95 H, 24 2B, 26 HR, .212 BA, .323 OBP, .452 SLG

Granderson’s numbers took a massive hit when he went to the Dodgers. His average dropped nearly 70 points, his OBP dropped nearly 40 points and his slugging dropped 120 points.

Overall, his numbers didn’t drop horrendously as you might think from 2016, especially when the Dodgers numbers are taken with a grain of salt. His numbers were down though from his projections with the exception of slugging.

As of writing this on 1/15, Granderson is still a free agent. He was a strong signing for the Mets several years ago and I hope he finds success again this year.

I love baseball. I love to eat. I love to travel far distances to watch baseball but really it’s because I love to eat.

I went to Seattle in summer 2017 and ate this:

This is the Great State Burger available at the ‘Pen in Seattle. The ‘Pen was a great place to go first at the ballpark, the gates opened up before the rest of the stadium and I was lucky enough to see Chris Flexen throw a bullpen session from the catcher’s perspective. A lot of fun.

In Mets terms, this burger was closer to Bash Burger than Shake Shack (I also like Bash Burger better, don’t @ me). Huge plus – toasted bun and shredded lettuce.

(Important – Article was written 1/15. Maybe the Mets have signed a 2B or 3B)

Asdrubal Cabrera was the member of the 2017 Mets who asked for a trade. Asdrubal Cabrera was one veteran of the team that wasn’t traded. Thus is a life of Met I suppose, even the players don’t get what they want. Going into this season, Cabrera will be either the 2B or the 3B of the team that could use a defensive upgrade at both positions. Cabrera’s 2016 offense numbers were great and any return to them will provide the Mets with a lift. Wherever the Mets play him will take a hit a defensively.

2017 Stats:
135 G, 540 PA, 479 AB, 66 R, 134 H, 32 2B, 14 HR, .280 BA, .351 OBP, .434 SLG

Cabrera’s power numbers regressed back to his mean career numbers last season, which make sense. The projections had him hitting worse and getting on base less than he actually did, but got his slugging just about right, even while missing how much his homer totals will fall.

Before writing this article, if you asked me at what clip did Cabby get on base last year, I would not have told you .350. That’s above what he was in 2016 when he was a massive surprise (.336 OBP with 23 homers). I called him as exciting as a Turkey Sandwich before that season. He was more turkey sandwich than Thanksgiving last season, but still respectable.

His defense though. That’s the sticking point now.

The Good First Basemen. Then the traded first basemen. Now (as of 1/15) the free agent first basemen.

2017 Stats:
127 G, 491 PA, 423 AB, 50 R, 92 H, 30 HR, .217 BA, .322 OBP, .496 SLG

For the second time in his career, Duda hit 30 homers last year which no site projected him doing. He actually out slugged two highest projections for him by 30 points. The trade off was in OBP and BA as both dropped dramatically compared to projections.

There was a power epidemic last year in baseball. Even with that Duda hit almost 8 homers more than he was projected to.

As stated earlier he had not signed as of writing this article but I feel he will still be a bargain for whoever signs him this off season.

For a second straight season, I have no idea what to write about Brandon Nimmo. The signing of Jay Bruce this off-season doesn’t just make things difficult for Lagares, it makes things incredibly difficult for Nimmo. Nimmo enjoyed a boost of playing time at the end of the season as the injuries and trades piled high for the Mets. First let’s look at his 2017 projections:

2017 Stats:
69 G, 215 PA, 177 AB, 26 R, 46 H, 11 2B, 5 HR, .260 BA, .379 OBP, .418 SLG

Despite the amount of trades and injuries, Nimmo still had less playing time than projected but he used his time wisely. He hit the homer projection and the batting average projection, hit 50 points better in on base and about 30 points better in slugging.

Nimmo had a good year last year. His numbers, even over a whole season, won’t save the team but this was solid. Especially compared to what the Mets had in April last year. I’m curious to see how the projections handle him for this upcoming season.