213 Miles From Shea

One of the key pieces of the Mets bullpen last year was Jerry Blevins. The Mets need Blevins to be Blevins like as the Mets lived and died with their pitching for the majority of last season. Already the #1 personality in the bullpen, once Reed was traded, Blevins became the most reliable member of the pen pitching in 75 games because Terry Collins was Terry Collins. What do the computers think he’ll do this year?

The computers see a regression on his numbers in terms of ERA, but not so much on FIP (ZiPS actually sees him posting a better FIP than last year). Despite a huge rise in his ERA, the computers see his WHIP dropping, so maybe the computers also thought the Mets would have trash defense?

The Mets start their first road trip of the season this year as they head down to Washington. It was a successful first week for the Mets as they went 4-1, thanks in large part to their bullpen and they face a Nationals team that is now 4-2 after starting the season 4-0. With the exception of 2015, the Nationals have played well against the Mets and while I personally want to be calm, cool and collected saying “this is just another game” or “it’s barely the second week of the season, it’s too early to be scoreboard watching” – I can’t. Two of three to start the season down in DC would be great. Let’s just started with 1 though for right now. And what a good 1 it could be today as this afternoon also marks the return of Scooter! Michael Conforto returns to the Mets almost a month ahead of the original May 1st estimate.

Additional concerns: with today being the home opener for the Nationals, the Mets and Nationals have a wonky schedule this weekend including a day game today, an off day tomorrow, a day game Saturday and a night game on Sunday. Further complicating the schedule – snow may be on the way for the DC region Friday into Saturday.

Jacob deGrom makes his second start of the season for the Mets. He picked up a win in the Mets second game of the year pitching 5.2 innings allowing a run on 4 hits and a walk while striking out 7. He was 3-2 against the Nationals in 2017 in as many games pitching 34.1 innings allowing 11 runs, 9 earned (2.36 ERA) from 27 hits and 10 walks while striking out 49 and posting a WHIP of 1.149. His 2.36 ERA was the best ERA he posted against any team in the National League East. The Nationals have the following numbers against deGrom:

• Harper 9-24, 2 2B, HR, 5 BB
• Rendon 0-19, 4 BB, 6 K
• Kendrick 2-20, 3 K
• Taylor 1-19, BB, 11 K
• Zimmerman 5-16, 2 HR, 6 K
• Turner 5-15, 2B, HR, BB
• Weiters 3-12, HR

The Mets bats draw Stephen Strasburg this afternoon, coming off back to back All Star Seasons. In his first start in 2018 he allowed 3 runs, 1 earned over 6.1 innings from 8 hits and one walk while striking out 7 on his way to a win. Last year he was 15-4 over 28 games and 175.1 innings with a 2.52 ERA, 2.72 FIP (league leading), 1.015 WHIP and 176 ERA+. Stephen was 1-1 in four starts against the Mets pitching 24.1 innings holding the Mets to 8 runs (2.96 ERA) from 21 hits and 6 walks while striking out 19. The Mets have the following numbers against Strasburg:

• Reyes 8-32, 3 2B, BB
• Bruce 8-22, 2B, HR, 3 K
• Cabrera 3-16, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
• d’Arnaud 4-16, HR, 2 BB, 6 K
• Cespedes 8-15, 2B, 4 K
• Lagares 2-16, 7 K
• Conforto 2-15, HR, 7 K

Who’s Hotter than a overcrowded 5 train trying to bring Mets fans to Grand Central and Yankee fans to some other place?
The Mets bullpen! Yesterday they posted 5 scoreless innings including HANSEL ROBLES (despite the Phillies messing with his undershirt)

Who’s Colder than all the fans yesterday at Citi Field before the Sun came out?
Any Mets fan who follows relies on the rhythm of the Mets first pitch times to establish order in their life. Through the weekend the Mets will have only one game this entire season that started at 7 PM.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets and Phillies wrap up their first series of the year today as Noah Syndergaard looks to hold off Herrera and the weather in a matinee game held exclusively on Facebook for reasons I personally refuse to understand. Last nigh was a vintage Harvey night as Matt tossed 5 scoreless innings and the Mets bats made sure to match him putting up a bland offense. After some pitching changes, the Mets broke out their seasoning, scored a couple of runs and survived a Phillies rally in the ninth.

Noah Syndergaard had an interesting day on Opening Day. He tossed 6.0 innings allowed 4 runs from two homers and 4 hits, but didn’t walk any and struck out 10. One homer definitely came from a pitch where he just missed his spot so the line by runs looks worse than it actually was. Noah faced the Phillies twice last year. His first start against him, where he started to show signs of an injury that would rupture a week later against the Nationals, he allowed 5 runs, 3 earned off 7 hits in 7.0 innings while walking none and striking out 10. He closed out the season against the Phillies tossing 2.0 innings allowing one walk and striking out 2. The Phillies have the following numbers against Syndergaard:

• Herrera 1-17
• Hernandez 1-11, 3 BB, 5 K
• Franco 4-13, 2B, 3 K
• Altherr 1-7
• Knapp 1-4, 2B
• Nola 0-2
• Hoskins 0-0, BB

Many eyes in the baseball world will be on Aaron Nola and the Phillies bullpen management today. Gabe Kapler made a big deal at the start of the season that Nola is great the first time through the order (and even better the second time through) but falls apart the third time. On Opening Day, Nola tossed 5.1 innings allowing 3 hits and run with only one walk while striking out 3. After 68 pitches he was pulled and the bullpen blew up the game. This was the first day of Kaplers very bad, no good first week of managing baseball. Last year Nola went 12-11 over 27 games with 168.0 innings, 3.54 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.208 WHIP and 121 ERA+. Aaron went 2-0 in as many starts against the Mets last year allowing 5 runs from 9 hits and 6 walks in 12.0 innings (3.75 ERA). The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Bruce 2-8, BB, 3 K
• Cespedes 3-8, HR, BB
• Cabrera 2-6
• d’Arnaud 1-5, 2B
• Reyes 1-5
• Nimmo 0-2
• Rosario 1-2, 2B

Who’s hotter than the way weather should be today?
Lugo and Gsellman have tossed a combined 3.2 scoreless innings with 2 hits and 8 K’s in their transition to the bullpen

Who’s colder than a Mets fan waiting 3 innings to use the bathroom at a sellout game?
Flores is now 1-7 on the year. Small sample size. I really struggled trying to find someone for this section today.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets dropped the last game of the series against the Cardinals on Sunday and the Mets were deprived of a chance to get back on the winning track last night thanks to snow earlier in the day. The question tonight is about rain, the Mets should be able to get the game in with at most a delay, so hopefully the manager of the Phillies will be able to see the bullpen and call on a pitcher tonight who has actually warmed up.

It’s a big day in Mets land! Harvey Day! Will the Mets get 2017 Harvey? 2016? 2015? Last year Harvey went 5-7 over 19 games and 18 starts tossing 92.2 innings with a 6.70 ERA, 6.37 FIP, 1.694 WHIP and 63 ERA+. In the exact same amount of innings in 2016 Harvey had a 4.86 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.468 WHIP and 83 ERA+. Harvey made two starts against the Phillies last year. His first one, the second start of the season, he allowed 2 runs over 5.2 innings and 6 K’s and was taken out of the game early for an injury concern (the Mets were destroying the ball offensively that night). His second start against the Phillies was his last start of the season where he allowed 4 runs on 4.0 innings from 7 hits and 3 walks. The Phillies have the following numbers against him:

• Herrera 4-16, HR, 6 K
• Hernandez 4-11, 2 BB
• Franco 3-8, 2 HR
• Santana 0-1, 2 BB
• Alfaro 1-1, 2B
• Hoskins 1-2

The Mets bats will see Ben Lively’s first start of 2018 coming off or a rookie year where he went 4-7 over 15 games and 88.2 innings with a 4.26 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 1.286 WHIP and 99 ERA+. Even though he only made 15 starts, he faced the Mets 3 times (or 20% of his starts) and held the Mets to only 5 runs from 15 hits and 7 walks over 19.1 innings which comes out to a 2.33 ERA and 1.138 WHIP. The Mets have the following numbers against Lively:

• Reyes 2-9, 3B, HR, BB
• Carbera 3-9, 2B
• d’Arnaud 3-9, 2B
• Nimmo 0-5, BB
• Lagares 2-4, 2B
• Bruce 0-2
• Cespedes 0-3
• Flores 0-3
• Rosario 0-2

Who’s Hotter than the new Nashville Hot Chicken Sandwich available on the Promenade?
Lagares has 5 hits in the last two days and he wasn’t even supposed to play yesterday but Nimmo was sick and Juan stepped up.

Who’s Colder than a Mets fan staring at the game postponing snow yesterday?
The Mets on Sundays. Last year they just could not get it done on Sundays and that fate leaked into 2018.

Let’s Go Mets!

Before being injured in 2013, Matt Harvey was the league leader in FIP at 2.01. He was incredible in 2015 coming off his first major injury. Then 2016 and 2017 happened. Last year was a disaster for Harvey but as he goes into a walk year, Harvey has a chance to bounce back while the expectations for him are low.

What do the computers think he’ll do?

Well, that’s a dramatic improvement. it’s not 2012-2015 Harvey, but it’s so much better than 2017 Harvey. The computers see him regressing to mean which in this case, regression doesn’t carry the same connotation that it normaly does. Computers see him losing almost 0.3 points off his WHIP which would also be fantastic.

In 2015, if you showed me that average stat line for Harvey, I would have responded with “that’s garabage!”. Or, “that’s worse than the EPA’s current attempt at cleaning up the Passaic River!”. But after last year, a Harvey with a 4.65 ERA, 4.5 FIP and 1.4 WHIP would dramatically help the Mets. My gut says, because my gut is a hopeless optimist, that Harvey will be better than this average stat line. I have no evidence to back this up outside of desire to see Harvey fly high in what could easily be his last season as a Met.

Yesterday just wasn’t the day for the Mets as they dropped the last game of the series to the Cardinals. Today, the Mets look to get back in the win column against the Phillies as the Mets open their first series against an NL East team. The snow should be long gone by game time so hopefully the manager of the Phillies will be able to see the bullpen and call on a pitcher tonight who has actually warmed up.

It’s a big day in Mets land! Harvey Day! Will the Mets get 2017 Harvey? 2016? 2015? Last year Harvey went 5-7 over 19 games and 18 starts tossing 92.2 innings with a 6.70 ERA, 6.37 FIP, 1.694 WHIP and 63 ERA+. In the exact same amount of innings in 2016 Harvey had a 4.86 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.468 WHIP and 83 ERA+. Harvey made two starts against the Phillies last year. His first one, the second start of the season, he allowed 2 runs over 5.2 innings and 6 K’s and was taken out of the game early for an injury concern (the Mets were destroying the ball offensively that night). His second start against the Phillies was his last start of the season where he allowed 4 runs on 4.0 innings from 7 hits and 3 walks. The Phillies have the following numbers against him:

• Herrera 4-16, HR, 6 K
• Hernandez 4-11, 2 BB
• Franco 3-8, 2 HR
• Santana 0-1, 2 BB
• Alfaro 1-1, 2B
• Hoskins 1-2

The Mets bats will see Ben Lively’s first start of 2018 coming off or a rookie year where he went 4-7 over 15 games and 88.2 innings with a 4.26 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 1.286 WHIP and 99 ERA+. Even though he only made 15 starts, he faced the Mets 3 times (or 20% of his starts) and held the Mets to only 5 runs from 15 hits and 7 walks over 19.1 innings which comes out to a 2.33 ERA and 1.138 WHIP. The Mets have the following numbers against Lively:

• Reyes 2-9, 3B, HR, BB
• Carbera 3-9, 2B
• d’Arnaud 3-9, 2B
• Nimmo 0-5, BB
• Lagares 2-4, 2B
• Bruce 0-2
• Cespedes 0-3
• Flores 0-3
• Rosario 0-2

Who’s Hotter than the new Nashville Hot Chicken Sandwich available on the Promenade?
Lagares has 5 hits in the last two days and he wasn’t even supposed to play yesterday but Nimmo was sick and Juan stepped up.

Who’s Colder than a Yankee fan at today’s afternoon Opening Day in the snow?
The Mets on Sundays. Last year they just could not get it done on Sundays and that fate leaked into 2018.

Let’s Go Mets!

Bring your brooms to Citi Field as the Mets go for a sweep to close out their first series of 2018! Yesterday the Mets fired on all cylinders for a second day in a row winning 6-2 behind a normal Jacob deGrom performance, three hits from Cabrera, a homer from Cespedes, 3 RBI’s from the Todd Father and a homer from d’Arnaud. In order to get the sweep Mets must do two things that were elusive in 2017: win on a Sunday and get a reliable start from Steven Matz.

Matz was 2-7 over 13 games and 66.2 innings with a 6.08 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 1.530 WHIP and 70 ERA+. When he came back from injury last year in June, he he had a fantastic start in Atlanta but then had two torrid starts. Through July 3rd he pretty much was either great or terrible but starting with a game against the Cardinals on July 9th until he got injured again, he was pretty much just terrible. Against the Cardinals he allowed 5 runs off 7 hits and a walk in 4.1 innings. The Cardinals have the following numbers against him:

• Ozuna 3-11
• Fowler 2-6
• Carpetenter 1-32, 2B
• Pham 3-3, HR
• DeJong 2-2, HR
• Gyorko 0-2
• Molina 0-2

For the first time in two days, the Mets bats will not face a former All-Star (same can be said for the Cardinals) in Luke Weaver. In his sophomore season, Weaver went 7-2 over 60.1 innings posting a 3.88 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.260 WHIP, 110 ERA+. Luke will be looking to rebound from the end of his season where he allowed 14 runs over 7.2 innings in two starts from 16 hits and 6 walks. His ERA for last year drops to 2.05 if you ignore those last two starts. This will be Luke’s first start against the Mets in his career and he has not faced any Mets while they were members of other clubs.

Who’s Hotter Than Take By A Relative At A Holiday* Dinner?
In his first two games this year, Cespedes has been on base 6 times in 10 plate appearances. Small sample size but he has a 1.457 OPS which is a fun start of the season scoreboard number.

Who’s Colder Than A Turkey* Someone forgot to defrost properly?
All of us in the NYC metro area. It may snow tonight.

*Happy Passover and Easter to those who celebrate. The turkey may have been my situation yesterday. Oops.

Jacob deGrom probably is the Mets leader in the rotation. The one pitcher who didn’t go down to injury last year, he crossed the 200 inning mark, put up another solid year despite a few starts had a fantastic year. The other pitchers on staff should lean on deGrom who came back from a season ending injury in 2016 for 2017.

While the Mets will go as far as the back half of their rotation, none of that will matter if Syndergaard and deGrom aren’t Syndergaard and deGrom. Here is what the computers think Jacob will do this year:

Overall, the projections see Jacob performing a level slightly better than his 2017 campaign posting a better ERA/FIP/WHIP.

If Syndergaard meets his 2.97 ERA projection and deGrom meets hits 3.39, the Mets will have a strong back bone to break up losing streaks, establish winning streaks, etc. Can a deGrom with less hair dominate? Syndergaard may be the mane attraction now but Jacob is the leader of this rotation.

Forty Five.

That’s the approximate amount of hours it has been since the Mets have played a ball game by today’s scheduled first pitch. Have you missed them yet?

The Mets started the season off with a strong 9-4 win over the Cardinals that saw Syndergaard record 10 strikeouts, Cespedes knock in 3 runs, Nimmo and Gonzalez get on base four times and the Mets bullpen toss three perfect innings of relief. Before we move on, that wasn’t a typo about Gonzalez. He got two walks and two hits including a double rivaling the amount of times he was on base all spring.

Jacob deGrom will make his 2018 debut today. Last year he went 15-10 over 31 games and 201.1 innings with a 3.53 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.187 WHIP and a 119 ERA+. He had two different starts against Cardinals last year. In St. Louis he allowed 4 runs from 4 homers over 7.0 innings of work. About two weeks later he held the Cardinals to 1 run over 7 hits in 6.2 innings. The Cardinals have the following numbers against him:

• Ozuna 8-30, 2 2B, HR, BB, 9 K
• Carpenter 3-14, HR
• Fowler 2-9, HR, 2 BB
• Molina 3-10, 2B
• Gyorko 3-9, HR
• Wong 1-8
• DeJong 3-6, 2B, HR

The Mets bats draw an All-Star for the second straight day and former NLCS MVP Michael Wacha who last year was 12-9 over 30 game sand 165.2 innings with a 4.13 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 1.358 WHIP and 103 ERA+. Wacha’s best year was 2015 where he posted a 3.38 ERA/3.87 FIP/1.213 WHIP/ 116 ERA+. Last year was a move in the right direction after a dreadful 2016 campaign. One of his best games of the season in 2017 was against the Mets where he held the Mets scoreless over a complete game limiting the Mets to 3 hits and a walk while striking out 8. The Mets have the following numbers against Wacha:

• Bruce 1-28, BB, .069 OBP
• Frazier 6-24, 2B, 2 HE, 2 BB
• Gonzalez 2-17, 2B, 3 BB
• Reyes 0-6
• Cabrera 0-3
• Cespedes 1-4
• Flores 0-5
• Lagares 1-3
• d’Arnaud 1-1, BB

Who Is Hotter Than Pickleball At A Senior Citizen Community Center?
Gonzalez. A game after being my “easy, can’t be wrong cold pick”, Adrián Gonzalez gets a double, a single and two walks and had me eating a large bowl of crow, which I enjoyed.

Who is Colder Than A Surprise Chance of Snow on Easter Weekend?
Anyone who wanted the “Thumbs Down” Yankee thing that Todd Frazier was involved with to come to the 2018 Mets (this includes the knock off “Thumbs Up”). The Mets debuted the Salt and Pepper Grinder action to be their hit cheering device for the season on Opening Day.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets have a plethora of places to get a burger while watching the game and new to the scene last year was Bash Burger:

It’s the most expensive burger option on the concourse (“beating” out Shake Shack, Keith’s Grill, and burgers from the normal stands) but in my opinion it’s the best thanks to the bacon jam and the toasted buns (really it’s the toasted buns).