213 Miles From Shea

Do you remember Hansel when he first came up? So good! Do you remember him last year? The opposite! In what has essentially become a meme for Mets fans, Robles pointing up signaling a pop up for a ball leaving the bell park, Robles struggled last year. Someone in the Mets organization was still very much high on Robles’ potential and Robles was not cut this off-season during the roster crunch. He had a bad spring and the Mets stayed true to their word, citing performance as the dictator of assignment, sent Roblems to Vegas. Injuries came and brought him back to Queens, how do the computers think he’ll do?

The computers don’t think Robles will be as bad as last year in terms of ERA, but somehow will be worse in WHIP. Basically, the projections don’t give a lot of hope for Robles. Hopefully the Mets don’t need to rely on him but if he can find that magic early on his career, that would be nice.

The Mets face three challenges tonight:

• Last year, and continuing into this year, Sunday’s are not their thing
• The Mets struggled to sweep three game series in 2017
• The Nationals are a good team that just lost two in a row to the underdogs in the division

Three challenges. Three trends the Mets could buck tonight. This weekend’s series against the Nationals has already been a success but now the Mets are in a position to make a statement. Starting for the Mets tonight is the pitcher who used to be all about making statements: Matt Harvey. In Harvey’s first start of the season he held the Phillies to one hit and no runs over 5.0 winnings while walking 1 and striking out 5. Last year Harvey faced the Nationals twice. In April he held the Nationals to 3 runs over 7.0 innings from 4 hits and 2 walks (2 K’s) in a game the Mets eventually lost. It was his first average start of the season and ushered in three terrible starts. His second to last start of the season was against the Nationals where he allowed 3 runs over 4.0 innings from 4 hits and 2 walks (also two strikeouts). The Nationals have the following numbers against Harvey:

• Harper 2-29, HR, 3 BB, 7 K
• Rendon 9-23, 2B, 3B, HR, 2 BB
• Zimmerman 6-23, 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
• Taylor 5-20, 2B, BB, 5 K
• Kendrick 2-11, BB
• Eaton 0-5
• Turner 1-5

The Mets bats draw Tanner Roark today who is coming off a strong start to kick-off the season. He allowed 1 run from 4 hits and a walk over 7.0 innings. Last season he went 13-11 over 32 games (30 starts) in 181.1 innings posting a 4.67 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 1.335 WHIP and 95 ERA+. He faced the Mets twice last year allowed 6 runs from 12 hits and 3 walks in 12.2 innings where he still struck out 14 Mets. The Mets have the following numbers against Roark:

• Lagareus 3-17, 2 2B, BB
• Bruce 2-14, 3 BB
• Cespedes 2-13, 2B, 2 BB
• d’Arnaud 1-13, 2 BB
• Flores 2-13, 2B
• Reyes 3-11, 2 BB
• Conforto 3-9, 2B, HR, 3 BB
• Carbera 2-8, 2B, BB
• Frazier 2-7, HR, 2 BB
• Gonzalez 3-7, 2B, HR
• Nimmo 2-3, HR

Who’s Hotter than the weather the Mets get to experience tomorrow in Miami?
Cabrera! He manufactured one of the runs completely yesterday from getting Rosario in to dominating the base paths. He’s now hitting .310/.375/.414 on the year.

Who’s Colder than the weather the Mets played in pretty much every other day this year?
The umpiring crew yesterday. The Home Plate umpire had an inconsistent strike zone to say the least, made a questionable ejection and heard about his zone from 90% of both teams.

Let’s Go Mets!

The A.J. Ramos trade was a curious one last year. While the Mets were shedding all of their other contracts, they went after Ramos, generally a sign of a team that was trying to win last year. The benefit of the Ramos trade was he was signed through this season giving the signal that the Mets wanted to win in 2018.

here is what the computers think he will do this year:

The computers see Ramos’ 2017 as flukey bad and expect him to be a full run better as a Met, thanks to losing .3 points on his WHIP.

The Mets need every veteran in the bullpen to be fantastic this season. Early on Ramos has been encouraging and hopefully with better bullpen management he will be even better.

I debated writing this article because Rafael Montero is out for the entire season. I pulled half the data that I normally use before his injury, and figured I wouldn’t probably write about him for a year, so what the hell let’s just go with it.

Montero was incredibly frustrating last year. Once he got pulled into the rotation he started pitching well. Then he started being terrible again. WHICH MONTERO WOULD WE GET?!

This debate must have continued through the off-season as Robles and Montero survived the January cuts to the 40 man as intriguing players like Josh Smoker got cut. Someone in the organization was rooting for Montero.

Montero had a terrible spring. As the chorus of calls to cut him from the roster started to rise, Montero suffered a year ending injury thus saving the Mets from making a decision they’ve been reluctant to for years.

I still have hope for Montero, he shows just enough hope to keep me hooked.

In January of 2015, I attended the Queens Baseball Convention with guest Wally Backman. Everyone wanted to talk Noah Syndergaard but Backman wanted to talk about Steven Matz. He described the lefty as unhittable. Matz showed brilliance in 2015 although limited by injuries.

Now, who knows with Matz? Last year he tossed back to back scoreless 7 inning games. He also had a terrible year. He struggled in Spring Training. With Vargas coming back soon and if Wheeler fixes himself in Las Vegas, what happens to Matz? Let’s look at what the computers think:

They all see last year as a fluke. However a 4.17 ERA, 1.328 WHIP is not what Mets fans expect either from a member of the rotation of aces. ZiPS however is all in on Matz returning to form.

Matz struggled in his first start and draws the Nationals in his second. He hasn’t faced a weak offense yet. It’s too early to write Matz off but disillusionment from the last two seasons has leaked in.

Seth Lugo was a critical piece to the oft injured 2016 Mets team that made the Wild Card. His curve ball has a ridiculous RPM and he rode that through the end of the 2016 campaign and became the ace for Team Puerto Rico in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. Then the injuries happened and his numbers returned to Earth in 2017, when the Mets needed aces in the rotation.

Coming into this season, Lugo’s roll was uncertain. Does he start? He does he fit in with an injured Vargas, a struggling Matz and a Wheeler with a disastrous spring? Mother nature so far this season has prevented a Lugo start but he has been tremendous out of the pen. Let’s take a look at what the projections models think:

These projections are pretty close to last year’s. They don’t see Lugo going back to his amazing 2016, but they see him pitching a lot like last year. Most of the projections see Lugo as a starter thought. Similar to Gsellman, I think it’s safe to assume that his stats get a lot better in a relief roll as his time on the mound decrease.

A Lugo with that devastating curve out of the pen could be a great change of pace from the flame throwing style of most baseball bullpens now.

The Mets and Nationals hopefully return to the baseball field this afternoon. As custom, with Thursday being the home opener for the Nationals, both teams had off yesterday just in case the festivities had to be pushed back a day. The risk for snow today has been greatly reduced but an outside chance still looms.

Also looming in DC are the Mets bats! The Mets outfield came out in force on Thursday with homers from Cespedes, Bruce and Conforto! For Cespedes, it was his third homer in 6 days. For Conforto, it was wonderful to see him in his first game back from injury. The Mets look to keep the good times going tonight as Steven Matz takes on Gio González.

Steven Matz is looking to rebound from his first start of the season where he allowed 3 runs over 4.0 innings against the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon from 4 hits and 3 walks in the Mets only loss this season. The long ball hurt Matz who allowed 2 homers. Matz had two very different starts against the Nationals last year. In his second start of the season he allowed 4 earned runs from 8 hits and no walks in 7.0 innings. Three weeks later he held the Nationals scoreless over 7.0 innings and to only 4 hits and two walks. That start was one of two starts all year where Matz held an opponent scoreless. The Nationals have the following numbers against Steven:

• Rendon 3-12, HR, 6 K
• Taylor 3-10, HR, 2 BB, 3 K
• Harper 2-9, BB
• Kendrick 2-9, 2 K
• Zimmerman 0-9
• Turner 1-8, 2B
• Wieters 1-5, HR

Gio González is coming off a strong opening start to the 2018 season where he allowed 1 runs over 6.0 innings from 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7. Last year he went 15-9 over 32 starts and 201.0 innings posting a 2.96 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 1.179 WHIP and 150 ERA+. Gio was tremendous against the Mets last year going 3-0 in as many starts holding the Mets to 5 runs in 20.0 innings (2.25 ERA). In that stretch he allowed 13 hits and 4 walks while striking out 13 (0.850 WHIP). The Mets have the following numbers against Gio:

• Lagares 16-43, 3 2B, 3B, Hr, BB, 7 K
• Cabrera 7-31, 2 BB
• Bruce 4-23, 4 2B, 3 BB, 9 K
• Flores 5-23, HR, 2 BB
• Gonzalez 2-19, BB
• Reyes 7-19, 2 2B, 2 HR
• d’Arnaud 3-16, 3 2B
• Cespedes 7-13, 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB
• Frazier 2-11, 2B, 5 K

Who’s Hotter than a Bowl of Ben’s Chili?
Cespedes! In 27 plate appearances he’s hitting .273/.407/.682 so far!

Who’s Colder than Tri-State Area Students thinking they would get a warm spring break?
Jose Reyes. He got the start for match-ups yesterday. He has the numbers today against Gio but on the season he is still searching for a hit in first 8 PA’s (he does have one walk though, also one caught stealing).

Let’s Go Mets!

The 2016 Mets got two surprises down the stretch that floated the team into a Wild Card game in Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Injuries early on to the rotation in 2017 put a lot of pressure on Robert Gsellman and he didn’t have a good year. Earlier in the off-season he was slated to be in the projection depth chart and probably in Las Vegas right now but through Spring Training he emerged as a bullpen option. So far, he’s been great! Let’s see what the computers thought he would do this year.

The computers basically saw two things. First, his 2016 was flukey good. This is what the computers saw going into last season. Second, his 2017 was flukey bad. For the most part the computers see Gsellman as a starter getting considerable time in the rotation this year except Steamer who saw Robert as a reliever .As a reliever his numbers should be better than his projection line which is already better than his 2017 line.

I’m looking forward for Gsellman’s 2018! He’s off to a good start seems to be vibing with Callaway and the new system.

When I went to San Diego last summer, my goal was to have fish, tacos and a lot of fish tacos. This was the first of two fish tacos I got at the ballpark.

Between the food, beer and atmosphere, San Diego is my favorite ballpark across the land! Go. Like right now. You need this.

The Mets will go as far as their bullpen this year, and Familia will be crucial. Going into the season, the Mets were reluctant to name an exact closer, opting to go by closer by committee although it seems early on that Familiar is the go to person for that role. It has felt like for years that Familia’s stock as a closer was raised by his propensity to get saves and Collins affinity for saves as a statistic.

Last year was rough for Familia. The computers see Familia going back to his mean numbers. If he puts a 3.31 ERA/3.26 FIP/1.29 WHIP, that would be a boon to the Mets bullpen. So far in the last two days we have seen both sides of Familia with a heart attack ninth inning and a ninth inning that was anxiety inducing only due to its proximity in time to the heart attack inning.