213 Miles From Shea

It’s been about a week again since we’ve returned to this series and during that time the Mets have traded prospects in this guide book including #3 Justin Dunn (setting up for an awkward article in two weeks) and #25 Gerson Bautista. That’s a sign that I need to kick these posts into a high-gear-blog-post-turning-out-machine or risk more awkward writing by the end of the month.

Just like #13 Gavin Cecchini, you already know the #12 prospect in the Mets system – Tomas Nido.

Going into the 2017 season, Nido was way down the depth chart. He was in the system for a while at that point and 2017 was going to be his first time moving up to Double A (which had to happen because he impressed with his bat in St Lucie in 2016, more on that later). The goal going into 2017 was that d’Arnaud was finally going to be healthy and he would platoon with Plawecki who finally find his solid swing that aided him so well at every level except the big leagues.

Travis impressed, until he went down with an injury. Plawecki didn’t take full advantage of this period, also Rene Rivera was having a resurgence that as the season slipped away from the team, people were hoping would lead to a prospect or something at the deadline (that wouldn’t happen). So Nido got a cup of coffee at the end of 2017.

Similar story last year – d’Arnaud struggled with health. Plawecki was good but not good enough to turn heads and Nido in turn got a longer look.

As Baseball America points out, the question about Nido has always been his bat. He’s seen as a plus defensive catcher with pop but doesn’t get on base enough. This changed in 2016 when he got the batting title in St Lucie after hitting .320/.357/.459 while still being 0.8 years below the average age of a player at that level.

In 34 games and 90 PA’s last year he hit only .167/.200/.238 at the major league level. (He spent the bulk of his time at Binghamton though where he hit .274/.298/.437). Nido’s spot on the Mets this year completely depends on who the team signs. If they sign another catcher on the market, and keep d’Arnaud then Nido will have to split playing time with one of d’Arnaud or Plawecki at Syracuse If the Mets don’t sign anyone, then Nido will get the bulk of the Syracuse playing time and will probably be called to the majors sooner than later with the Mets injury history.

Baseball America concludes their Nido section by calling an ideal backup catcher, and that’s definitely where the Mets see him and need him in 2019.

Last week the Oakland Athletics and Portland both released renders of how their future ballparks. The difference being, Oakland has a team and make the ball park a reality (finally) and Portland doesn’t have a team yet. In an error when almost every team tries to make a ballpark that looks retro, both ballparks seem like modern marvels:

The ballpark at Howard Terminal returns the baseball experience to the roots of the sport, while reimagining the ballpark anew. A “ballpark within a park,” the intimate stadium is nestled carefully into its urban surroundings. https://t.co/vLuiX01aT0#RootedInOakland pic.twitter.com/ZjTXknlU1A

— Oakland Athletics 🌳🐘⚾️ (@Athletics) November 28, 2018

“We are excited to build a bold, iconic ballpark at Howard Terminal. This design will allow us to blur the boundaries of a traditional ballpark and integrate into the surrounding neighborhood.” – @DaveKaval https://t.co/vLuiX01aT0#RootedInOakland pic.twitter.com/g46FK7N2ny

— Oakland Athletics 🌳🐘⚾️ (@Athletics) November 28, 2018

“We are also committed to delivering a baseball experience for our fans like no other. Our proposed two-project approach will enable us to deliver on our promises to both our fans and community.” – @DaveKaval. For more information, visit https://t.co/vLuiX01aT0#RootedInOakland pic.twitter.com/HSqZX7DlH8

— Oakland Athletics 🌳🐘⚾️ (@Athletics) November 28, 2018

I love parks, so I’m a huge fan of Oakland’s new park that looks like the upper deck is a sloping park terrace. This new park takes openness to its most fundamental level as it feels completely open and at the same time feels whimsical, something not emphasized at any major league park.

Also redeveloping the old ballpark into a huge park and playable field with bowl seats is an awesome idea (as long as the public actually has the ability to play in the bowl, and the bowl doesn’t end up behind a fence).

Well, yesterday was fun! It was exciting to share with you the progress we have made on our project and the support we have received has been overwhelming. Now we need YOU to sign the petition to bring #MLBtoPDX https://t.co/Ddi79kP4i7 pic.twitter.com/OKPZdm4Pqc

— Portland Diamond Project (@PDXDiamondProj) November 30, 2018

“We believe this has the potential to be a transformative landmark project for this city.” -Portland Diamond Project Founder and President Craig Cheek. pic.twitter.com/Ydh34nikfQ

— Portland Diamond Project (@PDXDiamondProj) November 29, 2018

Building an iconic, state-of-the-art ballpark along the Willamette River will catalyze economic development and capture great views of both the urban scale of the city and regional character of the Pacific Northwest. pic.twitter.com/jzCU7V5UH8

— Portland Diamond Project (@PDXDiamondProj) November 29, 2018

Portland’s ballpark feels more traditional, especially with the wall of seats behind the mound that look to have a more limited view from the concourse at the top level. From first base, to the outfield back to third base is where this ballpark’s modern look comes from. There are definitely some Tampa Bay vibes here as well with a glass ceiling.

Will this ballpark happen? Who knows. Portland is definitely a favorite city along with Montreal, San Juan and Mexico City to get an expansion club.

The non-tender deadline has gotten more interesting the last couple of years as players on the tender/nontender bubble are not making significantly less than free agents, thus teams rather risk it than going to arbitration to save money. There are some names the Mets should consider on the non-tender list as they retool their bench for 2019.

While the Mets have had an absurd amount of injuries the last couple of years, that hasn’t excused their lack of depth from the bench, mostly because the Mets have been bringing back the same group of players and hoping for something different.

Who could the Mets target?

Billy Hamilton: The player everyone has already heard about non-tendered, Hamilton would make a lot of sense on the Mets from a defense standpoint. He essentially works as a second Juan Lagares, and knowing Juan Lagares, it means Hamilton could be the only Juan Lagares if Juan is injured. Would he accept the role though of being 4th/5th outfielder with haphazard playing time?

Blake Parker: He has a 128 ERA+ with a velocity problem. Ultimately if the goal is to overload the pen, and the Mets still have another spot, and Parker hasn’t found a home yet, why not roll the dice?

Robbie Grossman: If the Mets don’t get Billy Hamilton, or anyone else, they need another outfielder. Tne minors are bare of players. Robbie gets on base and would have to be alright initially projecting as a 4th of 5th outfielder.

Mike Fiers: If the Mets needed a low risk competition for Jason Vargas, this could be it. I see Fiers working if by spring training he doesn’t have a contract yet and the Mets give him a contract he can walk out of if he doesn’t make the team.

Matt Davidson: Honestly I put him here because I’m fascinated by two-way players and he may try to dabble in relief.

Chris Owings: The Mets need players on the bench that can slot in everywhere.

Tim Beckham: If the Mets don’t find major league playing time for Guillorme, Beckham could be an interesting alternative as he can slot all over the infield.

The Mets made a controversial splash into the Hot-Stove this week as they acquired Cano and Diaz from the Mariners for Kelenic/Dunn/Bautista/Bruce/Swarzak. The Mariners also sent over 20 million, considerably less than originally thought but still a solid chunk of money.

The Negative View of the Trade:
The Mets are diving in to a win-now mode with this trade. Kelenic is one of the better hitters the Mets have drafted in a while so they are saying goodbye to a solid position player down the road. Dunn finally turned a corner last year and Bautista’s arm is incredibly lively. This is a high price to pay for an aging second-basemen coming off a PED suspension and one of the best closers in the game who does have bone-spur in his elbow that has been known about since he signed a contract. This is an incredible amount of risk. The GM of the Mariners is apparently euphoric about the trade which is also concerning. The trade also wipes the Mets farm system clean of move-able prospects outside Gimenez and Alonso (the latter who is not going anywhere).

The Positive View of the Trade:
The Mets are clearly going into a win now mode as long as they follow up this trade with smart free agent signings. Cano has been better than most aging stars. Passan has already reported that he sees Cano and Diaz both as 10 WAR players. Cano makes the lineup better for at least the next two years also allows the Mets to get creative with McNeil (although it would be better to keep him). Moving Bruce and Swarzak also gives the Mets some financial freedom. The Mets need to take it and reinvest the money back in the club. Since Swarzak and Bautista were moved on this trade, the Mets would be smart to sign 1-2 of Britton/Ottavino/Robertson.

There have been cases in the last decade or two where the Mets have traded prospects and it turned out alright. For example in the Johan Santana trade, Carlos Gomez became the only bona fide star. In the Carlos Delgado trade only Petit became a regular, long term baseball player.

I’m going to take the easy way out and just wait a bit. It was hard to predict a month ago that the Mets would go after Cano, so who knows where the Mets go to next.

Coming into 2018 Gavin Cecchini was the #13 prospect in the Mets system. So much (and then so little) happened with Gavin in 2018.

Coming into 2018, Gavin had major league playing time in both 2016 and 2017 in the middle of the infield. 2016 he got very little playing time, getting 6 AB’s scattered across 4 games and recording 2 hits, both doubles (he hit .325/.390/.448 in Vegas). In 2016 he was battling both Matt Reynolds and TJ Rivera for playing time. The former was the utility player that looked to get the bulk of the time and the latter ended up surprising a lot of people.

Gavin then got an extended chance over 77 AB’s in 2017 but hit only .208/.256/.273. Combined with Vegas numbers of .267/.329/.380, this was a massive step back. Gavin was given an extended look at the end of the season when Rivera, who was turning heads again, went down and needed Tommy John.

Cecchini had a strong spring and was hitting .301/.347/.469 in Vegas until early May. In Queens, the Mets were struggling with Reyes and for a third straight season, it looked like a door was about to open for Gavin. Gavin fouled a ball off his foot and wasn’t able to play for the rest of the season. Then Jeff McNeil emerged. Even a healthy Gavin at the end of the season would have struggled to find playing time on the 2018 Mets.

So that’s where we are with Gavin. He plays a position where the Mets have a bit of depth (and a lot of health question marks). He’ll be competing for a bench role or maybe another team will try to pry him away for the Mets. It feels unfair that his moments of brilliance didn’t coincide with doors being opened by injuries and his own injury opening the door for another player.

For the purpose of the argument “Where Else Do The Mets Improve the Lineup?”, we are going to ignore the later effects / costs of Cano’s contract and ignore the starting rotation entirely. Right now the Mets set up something like this:

• Catcher: d’Arnaud/Plawecki
• First: Smith/Bruce/Alonso
• Second: McNeil
• Short: Rosario
• Third: Frazier
• Outfield: Nimmo
• Outfield: Conforto
• Outfield: Bruce / Lagares / Cespedes

We’re glossing over some details in the above.  It’s a complete mystery when Cespedes comes back. Who knows when Alonso will be called up. Will the Mets bring back d’Arnaud?

If the Mets trade for Cano and do not get Haniger, their lineup will now shift to something like this:

• Catcher: d’Arnaud/Plawecki
• First: Frazier / Alonso (assuming Smith and Bruce go over in the trade)
• Second: Cano
• Short: Rosario
• Third: McNeil/ Frazier
• Outfield: Nimmo
• Outfield: Conforto
• Outfield: Lagares / Cespedes

If the Mets do get Haniger also:

• Catcher: d’Arnaud / Plawecki
• First: Frazier / Alonso
• Second: Cano
• Third: McNeil / Frazier
• Outfield: Nimmo / Cespedes / Lagares
• Outfield: Confoto / Cespedes / Lagares
• Outfield: Haniger / Cespedes / Lagares

First, somehow receiving Haniger in the trade will completely change the depth the Mets have in the outfield. Nimmo/Conforto/Bruce isn’t the most defensively minded outfield and giving up Bruce really opens a reliance on Lagares and Cespedes’ health. So if the question is where else can the Mets improve if they get Cano, if they don’t get Haniger at the same time, they need an outfielder.

The next most obvious hole that can be filled is catcher. Plawecki was a slightly above average catcher last year but that’s only slightly above average. We also don’t know how he responds to a whole season and the depth right now isn’t great behind him. (Nido hasn’t stepped up yet and Sanchez is too far away). I would love for d’Arnaud to be great this season but his injury record is almost as bad or worse than Lagares.

Finally there’s the question of first base. The most obvious answer is to let Alonso play from the start. If the new GM is creative enough to pull off a Cano trade that brings in Haniger or Diaz, then maybe the front office will actually play prospects. Who knows.

When I started writing this article, I was against the Cano trade. I’m entirely sure if this convinces me but if McNeil can play third base then maybe the Mets can get creative with the outfield. The outfield would be cheaper to fix than 3rd (without Donaldson seems like a Machado or bust situation) which leaves more money to fix bullpen and bolster the rotation.

The stories in baseball can be so coincidental sometimes you could convince yourself there’s a higher order to the baseball universe orchestrating story lines. Anthony Kay, a left handed pitcher, attended the same Long Island high school as the current lefty in the Mets rotation, Steven Matz. Baseball America gave him a 55 grade with an extreme ranking (worth noting that no one in 2018 got a grade higher than 55 for the Mets).

Kay is the definition of an extreme risk. After he was drafted, his physical highlighted an elbow injury that would later lead to him getting Tommy John surgery. Coming into 2018, he had not pitched in a professional game at all (2017 he tossed Bullpen Sessions). Baseball America wrote about his plus changeup and a 90-95 mph fastball.

And Kay got his chance to pitch this year. In Columbia he went 4-4 over 13 starts and 69.1 innings with a 4.54 ERA. Then in St. Lucie he pitched in 10 games with a 3-7 record and 53.1 innings posting a 3.88 ERA. His 122.2 innings broke the ceiling that BA predicted between 90-110.

So next season Kay will get a higher inning ceiling. The Mets are lacking starting pitching prospects, so barring some unknown situation where the Mets load up on AAA starters or somehow acquire a lot of prospects, Kay will almost certainly start at AA or get to Binghamton by the middle of the season.

In addition, Kay will need to be added to the 40-man after this year. Right it seems unrealistic that Kay will be able to be on a major league roster for the entirety of the 2020 season, so he may be a player the Mets leave up in the Rule V draft after next season unless Kay has a dominating season.

It’s been almost two weeks since we returned to this old top 30 list, and we still have half the list to go (and honestly only 5 weeks left before it really becomes less of a review and more of a dated activity). Today we’ll look at right handed pitcher Jordan Humphreys with BA score of 50 and risk rating of high.

Most sentences I can write about Humphreys have some critical contradiction in them, some that are inherently worrisome (his best year was 2017 but then he had Tommy John) or others that just hopeful (he’ll be a young 23 next year but has already been in the Mets system since 2015).

Jordan started to appear on prospect radars after a serviceable 2016 that saw him post a 3.76 ERA over 69.1 innings (12 starts) in Brooklyn and a 3.58 ERA overall. Then he turned his name on in neon lights in 2017 when he posted a 1.42 ERA over 11 starts and 69.2 innings in Columbia. He was making the adjustment to High A ball (4.09 ERA over 11.0 innings, 2 starts) when he got injured and elected for season ended Tommy John surgery missing all of last year.

2019 will be an interesting year for him and the Mets. By the end of 2019 the Mets will have to put him on the 40-man roster or risk losing him to another team (and to be honest, even with an average 2019 season, another team will almost certainly roll the dice on Jordan). BA says, “Humphreys has all the ingredients to be a No. 4 starter”. In a system lacking starting pitching right now, Humphreys is going to get a lot of looks. Here’s hoping he comes back healthy!

The Mets have been linked to Andrew Miller as some early rumors in the bullpen market are starting to ooze out. Andrew Miller is part of the upper tier / upper-mid tier of relievers this year, so it’s relieving to hear the Mets are even doing their due diligence on Miller.

Miller hasn’t played in the National League since the 2010 season. Originally drafted by the Devil Rays (yes the Devil Rays, not the Rays) in 2003, he declined to attend college and signed with the Tigers a few years later in 2006. A top prospect, drafted 6th overall, he was part of the mega trade in 207 that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit. Out of the 6 total players to the Marlins, only he and Maybin went on to become major league regulars. He played with the Marlins from 2008 until 2010 when he was traded to the Red Sox.

As a member of the Marlins he had a 5.89 ERA over 220.0 innings, mostly as a starter. If you only played against players who spend most of their time against the Mets, he seemed like a struggling prospect.

Then in 2012, the Red Sox shifted him to the bullpen. He responded with a 3.35 ERA over 40.1 innings, his best in his career at that point. Since 2012 he has logged 366.0 innings over 387 games with a 2.21 ERA, 2.24 FIP, and a 0.937 WHIP. From 2014-2017 he posted a 1.72 ERA over 261.0 innings. This is the golden age of Andrew Miller.

Andrew Miller is coming off an off-year posting a 4.24 ERA over 34.0 innings including a 3.51 FIP, 1.382 WHIP.

If the Mets are making to look a splash, Andrew Miller is a great place to start. But on his own, he’s definitely not enough.

This year, more than many, I felt bitter about the New York Mets. I was frustrated by the lack of smart financial investment in the team. Dismayed that the roster pretty much looked like the old and that the plan was to re-roll the odds on injuries. Not surprised that the same injury stuff happened again. There was a lot to be upset about this year.

I’m about to drive home to Baltimore to see the two of the three most important people in my life for why I’m a Mets fan. While showering I realized, there’s actually a lot to be thankful for this year.

2018 Mets Edition of What I’m Thankful for:

Brandon Nimmo: We don’t deserve your kindness. Before going to this year’s QBC I was all in about trading Nimmo to upgrade around the infield thanks to reading 20 baseball pundits that thought that was a good idea. But Nimmo won everyone with how genuinely wonderful of a human being is. Then he turned into a star player! Nimmo, you’re the best. Thanks for being a great ballplayer and a great person, for waving and talking to The 7 Line in the outfield and just filling us all with hope.

Jacob deGrom: We don’t deserve your patience. Jacob gave a consistence dominance that might never be seen again. Every time he went out on the mound this year he was great. In recent memory the only two other pitchers I felt this good about every 5th day in the rotation was Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana. Thank you for being a ray of sunshine this year.

Amed Rosario: Rosario grew so much this year. I didn’t quite see it until after the season but when looking back on 2018, he gave about two months of .300 ball, tightened up the defense at short that saw way too much Jose Reyes over the last couple of years, and gave hope for things to come.

Jeff McNeil: When all hope fails on the owners spending money to improve the team, you need an out of no-where player to shake things up, and that was Jeff. It wasn’t just great to see Jeff perform at the major league level like he was in the minors but it was also great to watch all the other fans know about Jeff before he got to the stadium. That’s the best thing about Mets fans, on the whole we may be cynical, but we know so much about this team.

Carlos Beltran: This one is a little cheeky but thank you Carlos Beltran, the most underrated Met of all time for your departing gift of Zack Wheeler. Wheeler had a tremendous bounce back year and at some level Beltran is rooted in it because #BlameBeltran.

Mikkeller: Hands-down the best new thing at Citi Field this year. (Sorry Jeff McNeil). I’ve always felt a little lost before game time. I rarely drive to the stadium so tailgating is awkward because I have plan ahead with people, which I generally don’t, bring exactly what I want to consume or share because I can’t bring it in to the stadium, etc. McFaddens is not my style of place at all. But Mikkeller. Mikkeller is perfect. Thank you for become a critical part of my Mets-game day experience.

Dole Whips: After Mikkeller the next best thing at the stadium was Dole Whips, and I don’t even like pineapple. They’re located on the Bud Light porch and by the 5th inning no one is in line and by September no one is in the stadium so go get it already

Citi Field: I’ve now been to 13 of the active major league ballparks and Citi Field still ranks incredibly high in diversity of food and drink options. There’s a lot of I would redesign about the stadium (more ramps instead of stairs to prevent crowding, larger bathrooms) but on the whole Citi Field is a top notch stadium and we’re lucky it’s ours.

The 7 Line: This was my second season sitting with y’all and it was a blast. There’s no one I’d rather commiserate with, travel to another country to watch baseball with and talk baseball shop with. See you again next year!

The Mets: You frustrate me to know end, but you’re still an escape for when things are tough. You’re a critical binding piece of my family. Somehow you ended up as part of my identity. Even if you go 0-162, I’ll still be sad at the end of the season.