213 Miles From Shea

One of the goals for the Mets in the off-season was to redesign their bullpen from top (Diaz, bringing back Familia from “loan” to Oakland) to bottom (depth in the minor leagues). To some degree, this has been a multi-year process although BVW kicked it into overdrive this off-season. Joshua Torres though represents a move the Mets made back in 2017 that hasn’t been discussed at all here at 213MFS, so today, we correct that!

Torres was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Brewers in 2012 and was in the Brewers system until 2015. The highest level he reached was low A ball and after a season split between low A and rookie ball where he put up a 4.20 ERA over 79.1 innings (despite being a year younger than the league average for low A ball), the Brewers released him.

At this point he remains unsigned and he pitches in the Puerto Rico league for a couple of seasons.

2015-16: 1.93 ERA, 5 G, 4.2 IP
2016-17: 2.96 ERA, 21 G, 27.1 IP, 1.024 WHIP

At this point the Mets notice him and sign him to a minor league contract and he spends all of 2017 in high A ball where he is almost exactly the average age (just a tick below). He posts a 3.14 ERA over 41 games and 63.0 innings with a WHIP of 1.206. He goes back to the Puerto Rico league for only 5 games and 9.1 innings after the 2017 season and posts a 0.96 ERA.

So the Mets decide to push him the next year. He moves up to AA where he’s still basically the average age of a player at the level (24 years old, 0.4 below the mean) and he responds really well posting a 1.19 ERA over 35 games and 45.1 innings with a 1.103 ERA. Even though it is a meaningless stat, he manages to pick up 9 wins and no losses during this stretch. The Mets then sent him to Las Vegas (this is the push) and he didn’t do so well, posting a 12.96 ERA over 8.1 innings. He closed the season back in Puerto Ricko with a 2.37 ERA over 16 games and 19 innings.

That’s a lot of numbers. Basically, statistically, Torres has responded well to several new levels of play, increasing his challenge each year. It makes sense for the Mets that the next step to push him is major league camp. He almost definitely opens the season at Syracuse and if he makes the next positive move in his career path, he’ll be pushing for a roster spot at the end of the season.

The Mets are the poster child for “you can never have too many arms” and despite a crowded bullpen, Torres is interesting, especially since he was cut so early from the Brewers and has had success at different levels. The knock I see om him statistically is the two times in his career where he has moved up mid-season (2015/2018) is when he struggled the most.

We’ve been doing this article series since at least 2017. I hope we’ve been doing it only since 2017 so this next sentence is true. Every year we’ve previewed Non-Roster Invitees, we’ve written a profile about Corey Taylor. So here’s to preview for Taylor #3!

The first year we profiled him, we wrote this:

However, and stop me if you heard this before for non-roster invites, his numbers have been impressive in the minors and forced the issue that we need to talk about him. In his first season in Brooklyn he tossed 18.0 innings over 18 games with a 1.50 ERA with 16 K’s and a 1.000 WHIP. Pretty good.

And then last year we wrote this:

This is still the case for Taylor. His numbers returned to Earth last year but he went from working in St. Lucie to putting a whole season in Binghamton… Last year in Binghamton he posted a 3.61 ERA, 1.332 WHIP in 62.1 innings.

Well it looks like he took another step forward in the minors last year. He went back to Binghamton to start the season and posted a 2.41 ERA, 1.439 WHIP in 29 games and 41.0 innings. Then he got promoted to Las Vegas where he posted a 4.26 ERA, 1.421 WHIP over 25.1 innings. His ERA responded positively while his WHIP did the opposite, which is usually a bad sign. He still took a step forward in my opinion because Mets pitchers were performing awful in Vegas.

Let’s see what he does this year! He is starting to get older so he strikes me as a pitcher the Mets wouldn’t mind rushing to the majors to become an extra arm if needed. He’ll probably get an extended look in Spring and if it wasn’t for BWV’s overhaul of the pen, we would be 100% confident that he would find his way to the 40 man and see some time in Queens this year.

In what is becoming a common theme in these Non-Roster Invitee articles, the Mets signed a lefty pitcher to a minor league contract with an NRI to camp this off-season. Today we’ll look at Hector Santiago, who unlike some of the other pitchers we already profiled in this season, has seen extensive major league time in his career and is trying to rebound at age 32.

Santiago was drafted by the White Sox in the 30th round of the 2006 draft and made his major league debut in 2011 getting into two games and tossing 5.3 scoreless innings. He would be come a regular pitcher, mostly a starter from that point on getting at least 61 innings of work from every season from 2012 to 2018.

After the 2013 season was part of a three team trade that sent him to the Angels (the more famous players in this trade include Mark Trumbo and Adam Eaton). In 2016 he was traded at the deadline to the Twins for Alex Meyer and Ricky Nolasco. He became a free agent in fall of 2017 and signed a free agent with the White Sox for a reunion of sorts. Now he’s a Met.

2018 MLB: 49 G, 7 GS, 102.0 IP, 4.41 ERA, 5.12 FIP, 6.37 DRA, 1.52 WHIP
Career: 238 G, 137 GS, 887.0 IP, 4.05 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 5.74 DRA, 1.37 WHIP

The obvious short term use for Hector is as a lefty reliever if the Mets need one, especially since he was signed before the Mets signed Wilson. What Hector really gives the Mets is a bullpen guy who can swing as a starter, where he spent most of his career. The two pitchers in the pen who can do that right now are Lugo and Gsellman (and Vargas in the rotation for the other way). If the goal is to stabilize both Lugo and Gsellman, especially without calling up a prospect too early (since the starter prospects are all too far away), there’s Hector. If he has a strong spring, he could fight his way into the 40 man. He’s a much more experienced option than bringing in Flexen to start two games in a row.

In August of 2017 the Mets traded Jay Bruce to the Indians and got Ryder Ryan in return. The move at the time puzzled Mets fans as Jay Bruce was smashing homers and the Mets acquired a player who was drafted in the 30th round in 2016 (and didn’t even end up in the Top 30 Mets Prospects in Baseball America in 2018). But it was an August trade and the Mets it seemed were moved more by money than anything else.

Ryan came to the Mets from single A ball with the Indians were he posted a 4.79 ERA over 41.1 innings, up from 3.86 over 18.2 innings the year before. This also led to the criticism the Mets received.

However, since joining the Mets, he’s fared better! He finished 2017 off in Columbia posting a 2.08 ERA and a 0.846 WHIP over 13.0 innings. This earned him a promotion to St. Lucie last year where he pitched in 16 games, 20.1 innings posting a 1.77 ERA and a 0.934 WHIP. Which in turn earned him another promotion to Binghamton where he pitched in 26 games, 32.2 innings with a much higher ERA (4.13) but still a low WHIP at 1.133.

The change in his WHIP has been fascinating before becoming a Met. Even in his first season with the Indians where he had a respectable ERA, his WHIP was 1.607. The next year with the Indians it was a 1.476. He hasn’t posted numbers anywhere close to this as a Met.

At age 23 last year, he was 1.4 years younger than the average AA baseball player. In my opinion, it’s a toss up right now if he starts the year in AA or AAA, especially since they are both close to NY. With the Mets restocking their bullpen this year, there’s more space between him and Queens.

I expect him to get a long look in Spring Training since he’s a reliever and since the Mets have parted ways with other players they traded for in the sell-off years (Hi Bautista) Ryan naturally moved up the depth charts as a young pitcher replacement. If the drop in his WHIP is a trend, maybe Ryan makes a lot of us, including myself after the Bruce trade, eat crow.

Today’s Non-Roster Invitee preview comes via the prospect route in David Peterson. David Peterson was ranked the #2 prospect by Baseball America going into the 2018 season (we actually just recently posted an extended write up about him here) and it makes sense that he was given an NRI for this season.

The Mets are thin at prospects for starting pitching and David Peterson is a far way off, but he is trying to pitch his way into Binghamton and then later the 40 man roster this season. He was drafted 20th in the 2017 draft but didn’t see much playing time due to injury (ingrown toenail).

He was impressive last year in Columbia, posting a 1.82 ERA over 59.1 innings with a sparkling 0.961 WHIP (as stated in the Prospect Review, control is his major selling point) however he struggled in the transition to St. Lucie where he posted a 4.33 ERA over 68.2 innings with a 1.354 WHIP.

The three starting pitching prospects to look at in the Mets system are him, Thomas Szapucki and Anthony Kay. Unlike the the last two, Peterson is not coming off a major arm injury. I expect him to get a solid look early in spring training, especially during split squad season and when starters are throwing 1-2 innings. As soon as starters start throwing 3 and the split squad games are over he’ll probably go to minors camp to see a regular regime of innings.

The Mets bullpen struggled last year and coming into the off-season the Mets only had 1 lefty in the pen (Zamora), while the Mets are planning to rely on their new free agent signing of Wilson, they did pick up a few lefties and invited them to camp as Non-Roster Invitees, including Ryan O’Rourke.

O’Rourke was drafted by Twins in 2010 and made his major league debut in 2015. He pitched across the 2015/16 season (more on that later). Coming into 2017 he got injured and needed Tommy John and missed all of 2017. He became a free agent in November of that year and in that same month he was signed by the Orioles despite the Orioles knowing he was going to need rehab time. He did pitch in the Orioles system eventually in 2018 but didn’t see the majors and was later granted free agency. He was one of the first signings the Mets made this year on November 15th.

MLB Career: 47.0 IP, 28 G, 4.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.38 FIP, 3.29 DRA
2018 Minors: 15 G, 14.1 IP, 1.26 ERA, 0.628 WHIP

The numbers he put up in the minors last year are significant. That’s a bounce back. He’ll probably get a long look at spring training and land himself on the short list, if healthy, for mid year call-ups / roster shakeups.

For the second time in three months we are profiling Anthony Kay! (Original post here). Anthony Kay, a lefty starting pitcher from the same high school as Steven Matz is looking to build on last year where he finally got some professional action while recovering from injuries. In late 2018 we wrote:

Kay is the definition of an extreme risk. After he was drafted, his physical highlighted an elbow injury that would later lead to him getting Tommy John surgery. Coming into 2018, he had not pitched in a professional game at all (2017 he tossed Bullpen Sessions). Baseball America wrote about his plus changeup and a 90-95 mph fastball.

And Kay got his chance to pitch this year. In Columbia he went 4-4 over 13 starts and 69.1 innings with a 4.54 ERA. Then in St. Lucie he pitched in 10 games with a 3-7 record and 53.1 innings posting a 3.88 ERA. His 122.2 innings broke the ceiling that BA predicted between 90-110.

Kay makes complete sense for a non-roster invitation. After this season the Mets will need to add him to the 40 man in order to protect him from the Rule V draft and since the Cano/Diaz trade, the Mets are even thinner at starting pitching depth via promotion of young prospects.

I am curious to see how long he gets a look at major league camp. My gut right now says he’s at major league camp until the majority of starting pitchers get 2.0 innings in a game and the split squad games stop, then he’ll be sent to minors camp to get more innings.

Depending on how well he does this could be the last time we are writing a non-roster invitee profile for him (alternatively, we could also be writing a top 30 Mets prospect review article that ends with him being claimed by another team).

This is our third consecutive year writing a preview article for P.J. Conlon, so it’s less of a preview and more a “hi, how’s it going? It’s been a few months since we’ve talked!” Things have changed though for Conlon as he made his major league debut last year! And then a whole bunch of other things happened too.

Before we recap Conlon’s 2018, just like last year’s preview we wanted to remind you of how funny he is.

pic.twitter.com/NS2wWzGSOV

— PJ Conlon (@pjconlon29) June 6, 2018

Me and my 5 spot are coming for the crown next season.. https://t.co/jt8qw0kL01

— PJ Conlon (@pjconlon29) October 4, 2018

Both of these tweets hit on some highlights for Conlon last year. He made his major league debut, becoming the only British (Northern Ireland) born pitcher to record any strikeouts in the league last year. He also got claimed by the Dodgers after his cup of coffee with the Mets and before he could be used with the Dodgers, got put on waivers again and was claimed by the Mets and now has another NRI to spring training.

2018 MLB: 7.2 IP, & ER, 2 BB, 5 K
2018 PCL: 4-9, 23 G, 114.0 IP, 6.55 ERA, 1.632 WHIP
Career Minors: 3.52 ERA,1.230 WHIP

This was the first year we saw a huge departure, statistics wise, from Conlon’s career ERA and WHIP. We will be watching how he recovers in Syracuse. The Mets are still incredibly thin at starting pitching and if they decide to keep Lugo and Gsellman in the pen if they need another starter, then Conlon is on the short list with Flexen to see time.

Anyway, I can’t leave a Conlon article without reposting what we wrote about him the first time:

I couldn’t read his profiles and not think of Tim Kurkjian’s new book I’m Fascinated By Sacrifice Flies where he spends time talking about the abundance of power throwing lefties in the league now. You used to have just a handful as recently as Billy Wagner’s time, but now they’re all over the league. This makes Conlon an old school style lefty pitcher. That being said, the local Belfast paper still posted a video of him hitting 90-mph as if it was something amazing. Which it is. As baseball fans in America, we have gotten used to the idea of 90-mph as practically slow in the minors when this is a human feat of strength to get that.

Ultimately this is his lane. The Mets have a lefty problem anyway that recently got better with the Wilson signing. Conlon is still a fascinating, and hilarious, pitcher. Let’s see what happens!

The Mets signed Arquimedes Carminero back on January 3rd as a free agent. He was signed by the Marlins in 2005 and made his debut in 2013. He was acquired by the Pirates in 2015 and traded to the Mariners in August of 2016.

This is where his biography changes a bit. He was released by the Mariners in December of 2016 and spent 2017 and 2018 playing in the Dominican Winter League (only 6 games in the last two years) and for the Yomiuri Giants in the Central League of the NPB.

2017 NPB: 63.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 1.247 WHIP
2018 NPB: 18.2 IP, 5.79 ERA, 1.768 WHIP

2016 MLB: 60.2 IP, 3.56 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.650 WHIP, 5.70 DRA, -0.5 WARP
MLB Career: 3.83 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 4.74 DRA, 0.1 WARP

Arquimedes has an uphill battle to make the Mets. It’s been a couple years since he’s been in the majors and after a very successful year in Japan he’s coming off one where he struggled. The Mets are hoping though to create some depth in the minors that aren’t all rookie flamethrowers. Unless he has a stunning spring training, he’s not going to break camp on the roster. He becomes an interesting back up plan though when injuries roll around if the Mets need to call-up a pitcher and they don’t want to use one of their young guys options.

At the least, his signing represents a new push for depth in the Mets system.

For the last several years we have walked through every Non-Roster Invitee in Mets camp. It’s one of my favorite article series because I learn so much about the Mets depth chart throughout the weeks leading to Spring Training and the month leading to Spring Training games. Right now the Mets have given out 21 invites to camp, and that list could grow.

Today we’ll start with Luis Avilán, who has a shot of making the roster. Avilán is a left handed pitcher and before the Mets signed Justin Wilson to a 2-year deal, the only lefty in the Mets pen was Danny Zamora.

Luis was signed by the Braves in 2005 as a free agent and made his debut in 2012 against the Mets where he faced one batter and struck him out. Luis has also been involved with two different three way trades. First in 2015 where he went to the Dodgers along with Arroyo and Jim Johnson and then another three way trade last January where he was traded to the White Sox. He became a free agent in November and signed a deal with the Mets on the 10th of January.

Phew! Now let’s get to the stats.

Career Stats: 3.09 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 4.22 DRA, 2.0 WARP
2018 Stats (CWS/PHI): 45.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 4.88 DRA, 0.0 WARP

So his career line looks line. He took a step back last year, specifically with WHIP. This is the area I’m most concerned about. Before 2017 his WHIP was never above 1.19 and since then it’s been 1.37 and above (this has occurred with a spike in DRA). If he doesn’t have this spike, he’s probably signing a deal similar to Justin Wilson.

Luis Avilán will be 29 this year. He needs to be better than Zamora to get a spot on the roster and even with that he will have to fight to get on the active roster to make it out of camp. If he doesn’t impress in camp, he probably stays with the Mets organization, maybe tries it with another team. If he does impress in camp, but not enough to force his way into the Mets bullpen, then he will almost definitely go sign with another team.

Avilán was a smart signing by the Mets to continue to build bullpen depth. Let’s see what happens