213 Miles From Shea

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference. AJ Ramos projections will be hampered by injuries, which is a common theme for the Mets as some projections were able to correctly predict time loss due to injury, some did not, and some never attempted it (sometimes by design).

AJ Ramos struggled in every possible way for the Mets last year. We noted last year that his inclusion on the roster was a curious case. While the Mets started trading to rebuild in in 2017, they acquired Ramos, which went against the pattern of trading bullpen pieces to get prospects. Ramos inclusion gave Mets fans hope that the team would be trying to win immediately in 2018 otherwise, why get Ramos? But alas, between ineffectiveness and injuries 2018 was a year to forget for Ramos. Lets take a look at was projected and what actually transpired:

2018 Projected: 60 IP, 3.73 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 1.351 WHIP, 68.8 K, 32 BB
2018 Actual: 19.2 IP, 6.41 ERA, 5.19 ERA, 1.627 WHIP, 22 K, 15 BB

He would have had a solid year if he produced the projected line even though his projected line was worse than his career averages in FIP (3.41), WHIP (1.270) and ERA (3.07). What the projections were able to see was that he was going to regress, but they saw a normal regression, probably because they didn’t see the injury.

Baseball Prospectus was the only who saw a tremendous regression in ERA (4.02).

What’s surprising is his final 2017 line wasn’t particularly great with a 4.74 ERA, 4.47 FIP and a 1.632 WHIP which was eerily close to his 2018 WHIP. AJ’s 2017 actual stats was a better projection of his regression than any of the computer programs.

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference. I’m also a completionist, so if I wrote a stat projection article last year, I have to review it at the end of the year for accuracy. Accuracy and projections haven’t gone the Mets way the last two years due to the amount of trades and roster changes so some articles feel more awkward than others, like this one. So were the 2018 Stat Projections on Hansel Robles correct?

Hansel’s rookie season was great but his 2017 was not so the Mets were unsure what they would get from the relief pitcher who in his last season and a half in Queens spent more time pointing up at the sky for fly balls becoming homers than locking down the game. Below we compare the average projected line to his actually stats from 2018. You can find the line by line projections here.

2018 Projections: 56.26 IP, 4.51 ERA, 4.525 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, 59 K, 28.5 BB
2018 Mets: 19.2 IP, 5.03 ERA, 7.13 FIP, 1.576 WHIP, 23 K, 10 BB
2018 Angels: 36.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 1.294 WHIP, 36 K, 15 BB
2018 Total: 56.0 IP, 3.70 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 1.393 WHIP, 59 K, 25 BB

First thing that popped out to me – Robles had a tremendous season with the Angels. He returned to be the type of pitcher that he showed he could be in his rookie season.

Next, the projections were eerily close to his final, combined line. He pitched almost exactly the same amount of innings, his WHIP was insanely close to average projected line and he ended up with the exact amount of K’s.

Not a single individual projection program had Robles with an ERA lower than 4.28 (Baseball Reference) so everyone missed that. Steamer was the most accurate on WHIP at 1.39 (they also were close on FIP at 4.65).

Hansel clearly benefited from being traded mid-year. Can he keep that up into next year? Will his new, ex-Met teammate Matt Harvey rebound the same way? Will any of us see it since the games are on the West Coast and as Mets fans we all, including myself, suffer from a tremendous East Coast bias?

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference. Were the 2018 projections correct for Paul Sewald?

Before the 2017 season, Sewald was a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. It was wildly predicted by most Mets pundits that he would end up on the Mets roster at some point in the season. Before 2018, it was unclear how many games he would pitch in as his existence on the roster was dependent on the health of other pitchers. The 2018 Mets, similar to the 2017 Mets, struggled in that department, so Sewald saw some time.

You can see the original projections here.

2018 Average Projection: 56.9 IP, 4.33 ERA, 3.995 FIP, 1.309 WHIP, 59.4 K, 20.75 BB, 9.376 K/9

2018 Actual Stats: 56.3 IP, 6.07 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 1.509 WHIP, 58 K, 23 BB, 9.3 K/9

Outside of the ERA and WHIP, the average projectile line did remarkably well. Sewald got almost the exact amount innings that was predicted, his FIP almost matched his projected ERA, he got nearly the amount of K’s and BB’s as well.

Mainly, his 2018 numbers tell the story of someone who was slightly unlucky (much higher ERA than FIP) but found himself in situations to get hurt by luck due to his WHIP.

For a pitcher like Sewald though, I really look at WHIP to see how he’s doing and no one predicted his WHIP to be this high, the closest was ESPN and Baseball Prosectus who both had it at 1.34 (and Baseball Prospectus also predicted the highest ERA at 4.75 so they get the edge as the most accurate overall).

Tomorrow we’ll look at former Met, Hansel Robles.

The final entry in this 30 part article series! Last year’s #1 prospect – Andres Gimenez!

From 2013 on the Mets farm system was turning out starting pitching prospects between the surprise success of Jacob deGrom, to the heavily anticipated arrival of Noah Syndergaard to the oft injured campaigns of Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz. (And, of course, Matt Harvey‘s rise to 2015 dominance). Since then, the Mets farm system has been a little light.

But with Amed Rosario debuting in 2017, the Mets have hit a new crop of prospect clustered around a position. The Mets have Luis Guillorme who made his debut last year and is defensive wiz, Ronny Mauricio who has a ways to go with last year being is first year, Mark Vientos and the #1 prospect according to Baseball America in the Mets farm system: Andres Gimenez.

Gimenez right now is not projected to have the same upside as Rosario. Baseball America gave him a 55 overall ranking with a 55 hitting, 40 power, 50 speed, 60 field and 60 arm. Right now it’s his defense that projects him to Queens some day with the Mets hoping that he can develop his hitting as he continues to grow. When he signed with the Mets he was the #2 prospect in the International Market (2015) and hit .340/.478/.500 with the Mets top Dominican Summer League team. His .478 OBP was probably a major reason why in 2017 he went directly to Columbia at the age of 18 which put him at 3.5 years below the average player. His numbers came back down to Earth, slashing .265/.346/.349. (Which are still great numbers especially considering his age).

The Mets continued to push his growth last year, having him split time between St. Lucie and Binghamton. In St. Lucie he was 3.4 years below the average age and hit .282/.348/.432 over 85 games and 351 PA’s. In Binghamton he was a whopping 5.2 years below the average age where he hit .277/.344/.358 in 153 PA’s.

Baseball America’s concern about him Gimenez was his lack of power combined with his lack of speed. As of right now, he’s still getting on base a ton. Last year Baseball America labeled him as a second-division regular or a utility player due to his defense (the former is a term that probably describes most Mets players on most Mets teams in the last several years). Gimenez didn’t have a drop-off in OBP despite going up to Binghamton at 19 years old.

Right now, there’s no reason Gimenez should be in Queens before mid/late 2020. Not acquiring Realmuto and trading Rosario helps the urge to rush him more than he’s already been moved. We predict he’ll start the year in Binghamton and probably move up to Syracuse before the end of the year, barring an unforeseen drop in performance.

Can you believe it? We’re almost done!

David Peterson was selected 20th overall in the 2017 draft and was placed immediately in Brooklyn. Peterson was known for his control his last year in college where he cut his walk rate from 3.5 BB/9 to 1.4. Baseball America tags him with an average fastball but with a slider that has drop (his out pitch to left handers).

He didn’t get a lot of playing time before publication. He only made three starts in Brooklyn totaling 4.0 innings (where he did post a 2.45 ERA). After being drafted he had a surgery to remove an ingrown toenail. Baseball America thinks he’ll project to a #3 or #4 starter.

So how did he fare in 2018?

David started the season off in Columbia where he posted a 1.82 ERA over 9 games and 59.1 innings. This includes a 0.961 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9. So basically everything that Baseball America said to look out for in his control was seen in Columbia. The Mets then moved him up to St. Lucie where he went from being just slightly older than the average player to the league to a full year younger. This wasn’t the smoothest transition. He ended the season with a 4.33 ERA over 13 games and 68.2 innings with a 1.354 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9. He still kept his walk rate down from his freshman and sophomore year in college and his jump to St. Lucie still went better than Justin Dunn‘s.

Ultimately, David Peterson had a really nice year. He probably starts next season at Binghamton with a late 2020 major league arrival date possible. Without Justin Dunn in the Mets system, and Thomas Szapucki coming off Tommy John, Peterson is by far the Mets #1 starting pitching prospect right now.

Well, this is going to be an awkward article.

You know what happens when you drag your feet writing an article series on Mets prospects that you could have started in the first week of October? You get to the #3 prospect on the list a couple of days before Christmas and he’s been on another team for almost 3 weeks.

Anyway, Justin Dunn was a prospect in the Mets system, now he’s a key prospect in the Mariners system. Dunn was drafted in 2016, debuted in Brooklyn that year, did tremendously well and found himself skipping levels to St. Lucie in 2017. In his first year, he posted a 1.50 ERA over 11 games and 8 starts over 30 innings with a 1.17 WHIP and a 10.5 K/9. He struggled in 2017 with a 5.00 ERA over 20 games, 16 starts and 95 innings with a 1.56 WHIP.

Coming into 2018 Baseball America still kept his grade at 55 with a 60 fastball, 60 slider, 45 change-up and 50 control.

Ultimately, he had a good year and took a significant step forward in 2018. He started off in St. Lucie where he was still a full year younger than the average player posting a 2.36 ERA over 9 starts and 45.2 innings. His ERA raised to 4.22 in Binghamton over 15 starts and 89.2 innings. His WHIP was also down from 2017. He posted a 1.270 WHIP in St. Lucie and 1.361 in Binghamton.

In losing Dunn, the Mets lost their highest profile starting pitcher in the system, but the Mets did get the best closer in the game for him (and Kelenic). We’ll miss Dunn and we wish nothing but the best as he looks to make a major league debut late this season or next year in the Emerald City.

So this should be fun!

Peter Alonso and Jeff McNeil were the two players in the Mets farm system that saw their stocks sky rocket last year as the season went on. Eventually Jeff made his way to Queens after the Cabrera trade, but the Mets refused to call up Alonso who was crushing the ball in Vegas. The Mets gave a lot of excuses around defense or not wanting to play anyone out of position (which of course was laughable, the Mets were playing people all over out of position). Obviously the Mets were keeping Alonso down to extend their team control of him.

It already looks like he is being groomed as the Opening Day first basement. Let’s first remind ourselves what the collective hive thought of Alonso before the season, and then get into his mind changing, ridiculous numbers.

Baseball America wrote about his exit velocity and that he had the most power in the Mets system (proved many times over to be true last year). They wrote about how much work he needed at first base to be in the field, this was also a consensus last year except he hit so well no one really cared. Baseball America predicted that he could land himself in the big leagues int eh second half of 2018, but forgot this was the Mets and they don’t always do what they should.

In his first full season he slashed .321/.382/.587 in Brooklyn, hitting 5 homers in 109 AB’s. Then in 2017 he hit a .289/.359/.524 between St Lucie and Binghamton hitting 18 homers in 353 AB’s.

But then 2018 happened. Between Binghamton and Las Vegas he hit .285/.395/.579 with 36 homers in 478 AB’s. He then added 6 homers in 98 AB’s hitting .255/.339/.510 in the Arizona Fall League.

Peter Alonso accomplished what I assume to be a rare feat. He played much better last year than even Baseball America thought but failed to reach their upper vision of the level he’d play at (missing the majors), which speaks more about the Mets Front Office than anything else. It was already reported this week that Frazier has requested a locker next to Alonso so the Mets are getting ready to finally bring him into the major league fold.

Here’s hoping he brings the thunder to Citi Field next year!

The Mets #5 prospect had an early end to his 2017 season thanks to Tommy John. He took all of 2018 to recovered (this was planned, it’s even written in his Baseball America 2018 scouting report) and he finally returns next year.

In 2017 there was a lot of buzz around Thomas Szapucki. He made himself known over 9 starts in 2016 with a 0.62 ERA over 29 innings in Kingsport and a 2.35 ERA over 23 innings in Brooklyn. The start of his 2017 season was derailed due to shoulder issue and he pitched 6 games, 29 innings with a 2.79 ERA before needing Tommy John.

His numbers looking great, in the minors he has a 2.27 career ERA with a 1.02 WHIP. But this is over 83.0 innings in 5 seasons where he has missed considerable time due back stiffness, shoulder problems and now a season and a half with Tommy John. His stuff is good, it’s just a massive question as to how he bounces back from Tommy John and can he pitch a full season.

BA gives him a 55 ranking with a 60 fastball, 50 curveball, 60 slider, 45 changeup and a 45 control. The high ranking fastball/slider is a calling card for the Mets system that loves sliders as an out-pitch.

Baseball America closed with saying that he easily could have been the #1 prospect last year if he had a full, healthy season and still sees him as a #3 type starter. The Mets are desperate for starting pitching prospects, especially since the Cano/Diaz trade sent Dunn to Seattle. At 23 years old, and coming off Tommy John, I imagine that if Thomas is healthy this year he has an inning cap that takes him off the field around August. He probably should go straight to Binghamton but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets keep him St. Lucie for a month or so, especially considering the temperatures in Binghamton and the length of time he has missed from the field.

If he has a strong, healthy campaign, he should be in Syracuse during the 2020 season and then make either a late 2020, 2021 major league debut.

BVW followed up his end of Winter Meetings signing of Jeurys Familia with Wilson Ramos. Unlike the Cano/Diaz trade which were discussed heavily in the media for at least a week before they happened, the Familia and Ramos signings seemed to fall out of thin air. Familia was signed in the middle of the night East Coast time with fans finding out about it around 4 AM Thursday morning. It was publicly known that Mets met with Ramos last week but little was known about their meeting. Then at around 5 PM on Sunday, the Mets had a new catcher.

The Familia and Ramos signings were also shrewd, team friendly contracts. In a bloated high end relief market with Kimbrel asking for 9 figures, BVW got Familia for 30 million. In a market where Grandal was going to get 60 million and Realmuto was going to cost the Mets the future, BVW got Ramos, the second best free agent catcher on the market for 19.

Ramos is an interesting signing. He’s consistently played well, as designated by a career .273/.317/.439 slash line and a 102 DRC+. So he’s 2% better than the average major leaguer in a position that’s difficult to put up good, comparable numbers. The knock on Ramos has been his injury history which seems like a dangerous combination given this is the Mets.

Once you move beyond the injuries, which hamper cumulative stats like BWARP (where he has only 19.7 in his career), you can see the promise that Ramos can bring.

Last year he had a 117 and 109 DRC+ with the Phillies and Rays respectively. The year before that he had a DRC+ of 99 and before that 116. His 2015 year was his worst offensively but he also only played 25 games. So 2018 117/109 DRC+, 2017 99, 2016 116.

We can’t compare d’Arnaud’s 2018 because he only played in 4 games but in 2017 he had a DRC+ of 99 and in 2016 79. Last year Plawecki had a DRC+ of 88, 2017 103 (by far his best) and 2016 only 70.

Ramos is a huge upgrade at catcher, and it’s only for two years. It’s hyper risky due to his injury history. He might not feel like an upgrade because his name doesn’t care the same weight as Realmuto or Grandal.

Of course, this only matters with what the Mets do next. How do they fill in that last outfield spot? Who do they get as another lefty in pen?

It’s a race to finish this Top 30 article series by the end of the year! Today we will look at a prospect the Marlins were supposedly interested in as part of a package for Realmuto, Mark Vientos!

Trading Mark would have been a shame. There’s a great anecdote in the Baseball America book that Mark’s father is a Mets fan and was super excited when the Mets drafted him. That’s the type of story that needs to be followed to a conclusion with Mark breaking into the majors with the Mets.

That being said, don’t look Vientos in the bigs soon, mostly due to his age. He’s quite young. He turned 18 in December the year he was drafted.

Baseball America before last year gave him an overall rank of 55, with a 50 hit, 55 power, 30 speed, 50 fielding and 55 arm. Those numbers also match their write up noting his arm strength, how the Mets hope his swing translates into power.

In his rookie year he hit a combined .262/.318/.398 between the Gulf Coast league and Kingsport where he was 2.5 years younger than average and 3.3 years younger than average respectively. Baseball America noted that if he had a good spring he could make it to Columbia in 2018. That didn’t happen, but his 2018 in general definitely good enough to lock him into Columbia.

Last year, still 2.3 years younger than the average player in Kingsport, he hit .287/.389/.489 hitting 11 homers in 262 PA’s. Technically Brooklyn should be next but if he has a good spring, I think the Mets have to give him a shot in Columbia. If he was one year older, and he put up those numbers in Kingsport I would be more confident that he would be starting the season out in Columbia.

So lets see what Vientos does! He’s still growing into his frame. It would not be a surprise if he started in Columbia or if he started in Brooklyn and played the last 6 weeks of the season in Columbia.

My concern right now about Vientos is outside of his control. I would want to keep Vientos for at least two more years before deciding if he was going to come up to the majors with the Mets or be traded to another team. His stock value in the short term is probably just going to increase, and it feels like the Mets could regret having him as a side-piece in a trade deal rather than a center-piece.