213 Miles From Shea

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.

Todd Frazier was billed as the key signing for the Mets last year. Their one signing that wasn’t a member of the previous Mets team, a signing that was going to push Cabrera to 2nd and save us from Reyes or Cabrera at third base.

2018 Projections: 562 PA, 494 AB, 109 H, 28 HR, .232/.321
2018 Actual: 472 PA, 408 AB, 87 H, 18 HR, .213/.303

No individual projection (you can see them here) was able to accurately predict the fall-off on Frazier’s numbers off his career numbers, let alone his projections. In fact, last year felt so abnormal that if Frazier was going to have normal playing time next year, he’d probably be a pre-season candidate for comeback player of the year, contingent of course on this slide being a fluke and not a trend.

Frazier this upcoming season is being pushed into a utility role with the Mets bringing in Cano and Lowrie who should be playing every day. It will be curious how computer projections try to square this for Frazier in 2019.

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.

Today we’ll look at former Met Asdrúbal Cabrera, who was finally traded in the 2018 tear-down. Last March we noted how Cabrera was the only veteran of value not traded from the 2017 Mets, despite being the only one who asked for a trade. He was only owed 8.5 million last year which seemed like a good deal.

2018 Average Projection: 545 PA, 477 AB, 125 H, 16 HR, .264/.326/.426
2018 Actual: 592 PA, 546 AB, 143 H, 23 HR, .262/.316/.458
2018 Mets: 407 PA, 375 AB, 104 H, 18 HR, .277/.329/.488

So Cabrera was outperforming his projections while he was on the Mets and started to underperform when he got traded to the Phillies. As a Met he was getting on base the predicted amount but was developing a lot more power (like 2016 Cabrera). The projection that got Cabrera closest was ESPN, which makes sense since they have a habit of overprojected established veterans. You can see the rest of the projections here.

With all of the Mets signings and trades in the infield this off-season, it’s clear that Cabrera’s time in New York is over (which is refreshing that the Mets aren’t signing all their old free agents like they’ve done the last couple of years. Cabrera was a big part of why the Mets made the 2016 Wild Card, thanks for the memories and for outperforming your projections last year!

When the Mets brought in Adrián González last year no one was really surprised. For some reason the Mets for years felt like a destined landing spot for González and it made even more sense for him in the twilight of his career as the Mets in the last 5 or years have become a final stop for players on their way to retirement.

González was supposed to help out Dom Smith, give the Mets a little more time at first base and provide a veteran presence.  Instead, the former All-Star and very good player had a bad time with the Mets on the field, and did not receive a proper send-off when he exited.

2018 Average Projection: 235 PA, 318 AB, 68 H, 8 HR, .262/.327/.415
2018 Actual: 187 PA, 169 AB, 40 H, 6 HR, .237/.299/.373

First, the PA’s are lower than his AB’s because the projection sites that do PAs saw him getting less playing time than the ones that only do ABs. You can see all of his projections here.

González surprisingly showed some pop in his short time with the Mets. Its surprising because the rest of numbers were a great decline from projections, which were more optimistic than his 2017 numbers (.242/.287/.355).

It’s sad that the end of his career will be a twisted Mets trivia question. Thankfully, I’m not sure many people will remember his quarter of a season with the Mets when they think about how good of a player he was.

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.

Jay Bruce came to the Mets last year as a major free agent signing, despite not making sense. The Mets just traded him the season before and then resigned him even though they needed a center fielder and Bruce is an extreme-corner outfielder. Then the Mets couldn’t get their first base situation right, so Bruce saw time there. But how did he do against computer projections?

2018 Average Projection: 557 PA, 521 AB, 119.5 H, 29.4 HR, .243/.313/.477
2018 Actual: 361 PA, 319 AB, 71 H, 9 HR, .223/.310/.370

Jay Bruce was battling injuries for most of last season, thus leading to a decrease in ABs but even with that his numbers took a massive slide, more so than the computers projected. The computers saw a drop (you can see that here), but he ended up hitting 20 points below average and fell over 100 points in slugging (although is OBP was strangely accurate).

Jay Bruce had a great year in 2017, he hit 36 homers, 29 for the Mets. It just wasn’t his year last year. We wish him the best!

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.

I debated about writing this article. Travis d’Arnaud only had 16 plate appearances last season, so even if his slash numbers were the same as the average predicted line, it would statistically insignificant. By the Mets trading Plawecki and keeping d’Arnaud (for now) they are signaling that see Travis as member of their 2019 roster. We are also going to do a 2019 preview series later in the winter / early spring so the data in this article was going to be collected anyway.

Besides, it costs nothing to write an article, half asleep at 5:14 in the morning, so why not.

2018 Average Projection: 404 PA, 334 AB, 86 H, 14 HR, .245/.311/.433
2018 Actual: 16 PA, 15 AB, 3 H, 1 HR, .200/.250/.400

You can see the break down of projections here.

Travis is a career .245/.306/.406 hitter. My key take away from his projectile line last year was computer programs saw him getting on base slightly more and showing more power. With very little playing time last year, and a reduced role on the field, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the year that more programs start to see Travis put up lines worse than his career line. This is what we’ll be looking for as we get ready for 2019 preview articles.

There’s also the chance that Travis can be traded. If he can cross the albatross of injuries he’s endured, he has quite a bit of pop and can still be a special player in a position where there aren’t many special players. Maybe a team wants to roll the dice on that. Maybe the Mets want a more veteran presence as a back up backstop. Time will tell.

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.

When we wrote the projection article last year, Brandon Nimmo was just emerging as being saved in trade talks. For a chunk of time in January (before the Frazier signing), it looked like the Mets were going to deal Nimmo for to the Pirates for Harrison. When the season started, the Mets struggled to find Nimmo playing time in the outfield consistently (this was before the Cespedes injury and the Bruce at first experiment). Then Nimmo messed around and almost had an All-Star year:

2018 Average Projection: 427 PA, 250 AB, 70 H, 8 HR, .246/.339/.380
2018 Actual: 535 PA, 433 AB, 114 H, 17 HR, .263/.404/.484

(The difference between his PA and AB in the projections is due to some programs that previewed PAs seeing a lot more playing time than those which only project ABs)

Here’s what the projections got right: Nimmo was going to get on base a lot more times by walking than getting hits.

That’s where the being right stops. Nimmo hit for average nearly 20 points higher than projected, got on base over 50 points higher than projected and slugged more than 100 points than projected. Nimmo had a ridiculous year making him a key player for 2019 (and reason why Mets fans were complaining about possible Realmuto trades that involved him).

There was one program though that projected Nimmo out correctly for everything except playing time: Baseball Reference. They saw Nimmo hitting .264/.356/.421, his best slash line compared to all other programs. Next year they having him hitting .262/.380/.447.

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.

At the start of the season, the Mets made things really difficult for Dominic Smith. They brought in Gonzalez (that was a fun month) and suggested that Bruce could play first. Eventually Dominic got his time to shine in Queens, but never really ran with it, but also the Mets kept trying out other people at first. It didn’t help that Alonso off in the minors was having a career year.

But was Dominic’s short time up in the majors as bad as we collectively remember it? Was it accurate compared to projections?

2018 Average Projections: 234 AB, .251/.308/.419
2018 Actual: 143 AB, .224/.255/.420

Normally I give PA’s, H’s and HR’s also but two computer programs had Smith playing a full season while the rest of them didn’t so the numbers didn’t make sense to include. You can see the individual projections here.

Smith wasn’t given a fair chance last year, but he was given a chance and performed below expectations (although better than his rookie year of .198/.262/.393). ESPN was the closest, predicting a .242/.292/.379 and Baseball Prospectus was the closest at slugging predicting it at .423.

I’m not sure what’s in the future for Dominic. The Mets have Frazier/Lowerie/JD Davis who can all play first base and then eventually, if not immediately, the Mets will have Alonso. Smith doesn’t really slot in any where else. If the Mets keep him, he probably opens the season as the back up first basemen in Syracuse. There’s a high chance he get’s traded though.

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.

The way the Jose Reyes signing went down should have told us a lot about how his season would go. He broke the story by posting on social meeting a picture of Citi Field with an emoji that made it seem like some news was going to break. And then he signed a 1 year deal. It wasn’t telegraphed heavily by beat reports before hand outside “we think this is going to eventually happen because the Mets are the only team that want Reyes.”

Reyes was going to be a bench role player. He ended up demanding more playing time, which blocked McNeil for months as he had to wait for Cabrera to be traded. It messed with Rosario’s playing time and almost completely blocked Guillorme.

2018 Average Projected: 438 PA, 306 AB, 85 H, 9.3 HR, .253/.312/.403
2018 Actual: 251 PA, 228 AB, 43 H, 4 HR, .189/.260/.320

No one particular projection program was close on Jose Reyes. Steamer saw the least amount of playing time at 271 PA’s and had him hitting a .249/.309/.388, also the lowest of the group for slash lines (MLB.com had him at a .307 OBP). You can see the projections here.

Every projection program saw Jose Reyes performing at or better than his 2017 line (.246/.315/.413). Obviously Jose Reyes had a significant drop off in performance. He got pulled from the game early on and that will probably, hopefully, be the last time we see him in a Mets uniform.

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.

Originally, this article was going to just review Plawecki’s 2018, and then speculate how the Mets would balance d’Arnaud, Plawecki and Ramos next year. But, the Mets traded Kevin Plawecki to the Indians last week and now this feels more like a good bye, thanks for the memories letter.

Personally, I feel that last year was the first year that the idea for Plawecki was more of a straight platoon than as a back up catcher, the idea of d’Arnaud always being a healthy option was fading.

2018 Average Projected: 248 PA, 217 AB, 55 H, 5.6 HR, .248/.320/.373
2018 Actual: 277 PA, 238 AB, 50 H, 7 HR, .210/.315/.370

Plawecki performed pretty much inline with his projections. He got slightly more playing time, got on base slightly less, but it was pretty close. You can see his individual projections here.

Plawecki came up back when we were all obsessed with d’Arnaud, but as a prospect and college player, Plawecki was a hitting machine. Never for that much power, he just got on base. It just never materialized at the same rate at the major league level. Plawecki was a league average catcher that posted an 88 DRC+ last year. He gave a lot to the Mets and I’m sad to see him go. There was also no way the Mets could carry three catchers on their roster.

Happy trails Plawecki! Enjoy Cleveland!

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.

Going into last season, the Mets did not have a true center fielder that could play both serviceable defense and handle a bat. The hope was that Juan Lagares, going through a new off-season hitting routine, would be able to step into that spot. Juan Lagares also struggles to stay healthy and that was on full-display last year as Lagares landed on the DL for the rest of the season around May.

2018 Average Projection: 318 PA, 280 AB, .252/.294/.363
2018 Actual: 64 PA, 59 AB, .339/.375/.390
(Individual source projections here)

So Lagares had a tremendous 64 plate appearance stretch last year that makes him look really good against projections. Right now, Lagares playing time is up in the air. Until Cespedes comes back, it looks like he will split time with Broxton as they both spend time with Nimmo, Conforto and McNeil. It is also not entirely certain that Lagares doesn’t get traded because the Mets have Broxton now. Who knows.

Juan has shown flashes of brilliance in spurts of playing time between injuries. Is this season that he’s finally healthy?