213 Miles From Shea

The most important bat the Mets have this year is Michael Conforto. He could break out and become an MVP candidate. He could struggle like he did early in the season last year and the Mets get off to a rocky start. However he plays will be how the Mets go.

2018: 638 PA, 543 AB, 28 HR, .243/.350/.448, 2.9 WAR, 112 DRC+
From July 20th On: .273/.356/.539
Career: .251/.349/.476, 113 DRC+

The second half of the season Conforto turned a page and started to smack the cover off the baseball becoming the player we all expected him to be. If he puts a full season of hitting like that he could easily become an MVP. Let’s take a look at how computers expect him to perform this year:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

All of the projections that produce WAR stats see him becoming a top WAR player for the Mets. BP sees him increasing 10 points on DRC+ which is not common at all. ESPN has him breaking the 30 homer plateau.

He’s looked great so far in spring training (knock on wood) and seems incredibly confident. I don’t want to pontificate on the projection numbers too much because they are joy to comb through. Look through! Let your mind dream of what Conforto could mean for the team this year!

Towards the end of the off-season the Mets defense for why they weren’t going after marquee outfielders like Pollock and Harper was something along the lines of, “well, we’re getting Cespedes back!”. Which is true in theory I suppose.

Getting a healthy Yoenis Cespedes will be a huge boost to the roster but there’s a lot of questions. Does this mean early July or late August? Will he produce at the level he did? What other injuries will the Mets have at that point and what holes in their depth have been exposed? What does it even mean to be healthy?

The Mets seriously messed up Cespedes last year. I don’t blame him at all. It was clear that he was dealing with a pretty bad injury to both heals and when he became “healthy enough” to run again, the Mets sent him back out there despite knowing he needed a season ending surgery with a long recovery time. Fairly dehumanizing. Despite this pretty insane injury, he was an average to above average (depending on what you look at below) ball player last year:

2018: 157 PA, 141 AB, 9 HR, .262/.325/.496, 0.9 WAR, 99 DRC+
Career: .274/.328/.498, 123 DRC+

Projections, with the exception of ZiPS which does not care about playing time had balance his recovery with his tendency to get injured in developing these projections:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

For the most part, the projections see him coming back as an above average player with a bat the Mets lineup could use. Put this is all predicated on Cespedes coming back healthy which is not a guarantee at all.

The Mets played two yesterday, they’ll play one today and zero tomorrow as they get their first off-day in spring. Yesterday the Mets won on the road and lost at home. Highlights included d’Arnaud’s two hit day, including a double, Aloson’s second homer of the spring, Corey Oswalt allowing 1 run over 2.1 innings, O’Rourke striking out 3 in an inning of work, Cano’s two hit day, Tebow’s two hit day, Familia and Lugo’s clean inning of work. Lowlights include Matz allowing 4 runs off 5 hits in 2.2 innings and Nimmo’s 0-3 day at the plate with 3 K’s.

Mets Lineup:

1. Brandon Nimmo (DH)
2. Danny Espinosa (SS)
3. Keon Broxton (CF)
4. Michael Conforto (RF)
5. JD Davis (1B)
6. Devin Mesoraco (C)
7. Adeiny Hechavarria (2B)
8. Gregor Blanco (LF)
9. Dilson Herrera (2B)

Starting Pitcher: Jason Vargas

Jason Vargas returns for his second start in spring. His debut outing was decent, allowing 1 run over 2.0 innings off a hit and a walk while striking out 3. Although he struggled over the entirety of 2018, he ended the season strong posting a 2.43 ERA and .188 BA in his last 6 starts and 33.1 innings. If you expand it a bit, he has a 2.62 ERA over his last 8 starts and 44.2 innings. Could a proper spring training bring that Jason Vargas back?

Other Things To Watch For:

1. The Mets assigned a group of players, some who were getting regular playing time, to the minors today. There were no surprises in the group. Expect to see more AB’s for regulars now.
2. Let’s write off yesterday’s 0-3 performance from Nimmo as undercookedchickenrust. He’s back in there today at DH.
3. Keon Broxton (who we looked at 2019 projections for here). So far this spring he’s hitting .182/.357/.182 in 14 PA’s.
4. You know what’s great? Conforto is hitting .333/.368/.500 in 19 PA’s. Hope that warms your heart on this cold March day.
5. Adeiny Hechavarria gets another start today and needs to start doing something with bat if he wants to make the roster. So far in 15 PAs he’s hitting .077/.200/.308

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets acquired Keon Broxton in a trade this off-season for Bobby Wahl, who was the main piece in the trade for Familia last summer. Since then, Wahl may have torn his ACL and we all learned while watching SNY that Broxton has 16 dogs.

Keon Broxton was brought in for outfield defensive depth, meaning the Mets do not expect a tremendous amount at the plate. Ever nudge closer though Keon Broxton gets to being an average hitter then greatly raises his value since he’s already a gifted defender.

2018: 84 PA, 78 AB, 4 HR, .179/.281/.410, 1.6 WAR, 77 DRC+
Career: .221/.313/.421, 81 DRC+

This is what we already knew about Broxton, can he elevate these numbers though?

(Citations: ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

Baseball Reference sees Broxton putting up right around average hitting numbers. ESPN has a dramatic increase over last year and his career numbers and both ZiPS and Steamer see Broxton improving over last year but not near his normal numbers. What we do see in the projections is Keon’s scouting report. He has pop, but not consistent contact, leading to low batting averages.

It’s still unknown how the Mets are going to balance playing time for Keon and Juan this upcoming season. If Broxton wants to play more, he will have to hit more.

The Mets are playing two today! Yesterday they traveled to Jupiter and beat the Cards 10-8 thanks to a powerful 3-run bomb by Dom Smith and a 2-run shot by Luis Guillorme. Both players are fighting for roster spots and have been crushing it so far this spring.

Mets Lineup @ Astros:

1. Rajai Davis (LF)
2. Juan Lagares (CF)
3. Travis d’Arnaud (DH)
4. Pete Alonso (1B)
5. Gregor Blanco (RF)
6. Adeiny Hechavarria (SS)
7. Tomas Nido (C)
8. Dilson Herrera (2B
9. David Thompson (3B)

Starting Pitcher: Corey Oswalt

Mets Lineup vs Red Sox:

1. Brandon Nimmo (DH)
2. Amed Rosario (SS)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Michael Conforto (RF)
5. Wilson Ramos (C)
6. JD Davis (3B)
7. Dominic Smith (1B)
8. Keon Broxton (CF)
9. Tim Tebow (LF)

Starting Pitcher: Steven Matz

Things to watch for in no particular order:

1. Steven Matz will be making his second start in spring training today. Last week he tossed 2.0 innings allowing 1 run over 3 hits while striking out 3. The Mets are trying to get their starters through 3 innings the second time through.
2. A lot of long-man depth is happening today. Caminero, Oswalt, Locket and Sewald are all fighting for the same roster spot and are all pitching today. Caminero has allowed 6 runs, 5 earned over 2.0 innings. Oswalt has allowed no runs and no hits in 2.0 innings. Lockett has allowed 3 runs over 4 hits in 3.2 innings (with his second stint being much better than his first). Sewald has allowed 1 run over 2.0 innings.
3. Familia had a shakey outing on Saturday and in his overall Spring line he has allowed 4 runs, 2 earned off 4 hits and a walk in 2.0 innings with a strikeout. Let’s see how he responds on short rest today.
4. After an injury and food poisoning, Brandon Nimmo looks to get his spring underway today, starting off as a DH
5. On the whole, the home lineup 1-5 looks close to an opening day lineup. Depending on injuries and where Pete Alonso starts, the whole lineup minus Tebow could be a “B” squad / day game lineup.

One of the best surprises in Spring Training has been Dom Smith. He’s slimmed down, working on his sleep schedule and making solid contact with the ball. In a perfect world, he hits so well that the Mets have a solid reason to delay Pete Alonso‘s arrival to Queens. But with the injuries to Frazier and Lowrie, Alonso’s time may be at the start of the season, which could spell trouble for Smith.

2018: 149 PA, 143 AB, 5 HR, .224/.255/.420, -0.6 WAR, 77 DRC+
Career: .210/.259/.406, 79 DRC+

Dom had an opportunity last year and squandered it. He’s playing right now like he knows he squandered it and has something to prove. The computers think he’ll put up the following in 2019:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

The best projection for him by far is ZiPS. Remember, ZiPS does not try to predict playing time which is going to be the most difficult thing to prodect for Smith this season. ZiPS has him getting on base at a clip about 35 points higher than his career numbers, and in a small sample size in spring training, this is what we have been seeing.

Dom Smith was never going to be a power bat, contact was his game. Now that he’s in much better shape, his better contact could be turning into him reaching base safely more often.

We have always loved and still love Dom Smith here. Hoping this is the season he figures it out!

Amed Amd Amed Amed Amed Rosarioooooooo.

Whenever the Mets have a surprisingly good year, there’s at least one player who breaks out. 2015? Michael Conforto. 2019? Maybe Amed Rosario? If Rosario starts to really hit the ball well, it would be a huge boost to the infield.

2018: 592 PA, 554 AB, 9 HR, .256/.295/.381, 0.2 WAR, 83 DRC+
Career: .255/.290/.384, 80 DRC+

From August 10th on last year Rosario hit .303/.335/.444. While I don’t think that Rosario will hit that for an entire season, if he could produce a line that somewhere between that and his overall season numbers, it would be a massive improvement. Here’s hows projected right now:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

THe 92 DRC+ from Baseball Prospectus is still pretty far under the average baseball player (and right now near the bottom for projected DRC+’s in the Mets starting lineup), but a 92 DRC+ is a huge improvement over last year’s 83 and his career mark of 80.

My gut tells me that most of these projections are a bit low for Amed. I think he ends up somewhere between Steamer and ZiPS. BP/ESPN don’t show him growing much at all and it feels like he’s still in the upswing phase of his career.

I know the ending of Spring Training games shouldn’t matter, but yesterday was a very Mets way to end a game. The Mets loaded the bases to the start the inning and were able to trade an out for a run. Then, the Mets grounded into what should have been a game ending double play, but an errant throw led to the runner being called safe first and the tying run to score except the Mets were called for runner’s interference at 2nd (the correct call) and the game ended just like that.

Mets Lineup:

1. Juan Lagares (CF)
2. Luis Guillorme (SS)
3. Travis d’Arnaud (DH)
4. Dominic Smith (DH)
5. Devin Mesoraco (C)
6. Rymer Liriano (RF)
7. Adeiny Hechavarria (3B)
8. Dilson Herrera (2B)
9. Rajai Davis (LF)

Starting Pitcher – Zack Wheeler

Travis d’Arnaud makes his spring debut today as a DH. Essentially d’Arnaud is in an open competition with Devin Mesoraco for a roster spot. Working against d’Arnaud – will he even be ready by the start of the season? He has to compete with his own health in addition to Mesoraco who makes the ace of the staff feel quite comfortable. The advantage that d’Arnaud has is his bat. When he is healthy, his bat is intriguing, and a more entertaining, albeit riskier, option over Mesoraco.

Other Things To Watch For:

1. In Wheeler’s first start of the spring, he allowed 2 unearned runs over one inning. I would expect that he goes between 2-3 innings today.
2. Smith went hit-less yesterday so his spring slashline “dropped” to a .417/.533/.417
3. Mesoraco – competing with d’Arnaud, has had only 6 PA’s in spring so far. His one hit was a homer, he also grounded into a double play.
4. The Mets are really giving Rajai Davis, Gregor Blanco and Rymer Liriano a long look, which is exactly what they should be doing. Rymer has hit .214/.267/.429 over 15 PAs. Davis has hit .400/.455/.900 over 11 PA’s
5. Hechavarria has recorded 8 PA’s in spring and has two walks. He’s still searching for his first hit.

Let’s Go Mets!

T.J. Rivera may be one of the more difficult players to project on the Mets this year. In 2017 he performed so well, there was thought that after Cabrera, he could be the future second basemen of the Mets. Then he go injured and needed Tommy John surgery, which opened the door for McNeil who made phenomenal use of the opportunity to play everyday.

2017 Stats: 231 PA, 214 AB, 5 HR, .290/.330/.430, 0.4 WAR, 101 DRC+
Career: .302/.334/.445, 102 DRC+

As a replacement player for the Mets in in 2017, he did quite well. To put his 101 DRC+ in perspective, the Orioles in 2019 have one batter that is projected to have a DRC+ better than 100, so 2017 TJ Rivera would be the second best hitter on the 2019 Orioles.

Rivera has a couple of things in his way right now. Mainly, he’s still not 100%, and after a year of setbacks that’s the last thing he needs. The Mets also traded for JD Davis who is pushing for his bench spot. On top of that, Gavin Cecchini so far in spring has playing hard for a roster spot.

Here’s what computers think TJ will do this year:

(Citations: ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

Ignore ZiPS for a moment, they don’t factor in estimated playing time. ESPN and Steamer see Rivera basically getting no playing time. BP was so down on playing time that they didn’t project him in the annual. All of the projections see Rivera hitting below his career numbers, but his career numbers are definitely affected by small-sample sizes over two seasons. His OPS isn’t great but is pretty good for the Mets bench, especially compared to last year.

The two questions for Rivera:

1. When will he be healthy enough to play?
2. When he is healthy, is there room for him on the active roster?

Happy Syndergaard day! Happy Edwin Diaz day!

Hope you enjoyed yesterday’s deGrom start! Jacob made quick work of the Tigers yesterday allowing 1 hit and striking out 4 over 3.0 innings. His impressive performance was followed by clean innings from both Gsellman and Lugo. Mesoraco, who deGrom credits success to last season, hit a home in the game and Amed Rosario led the game off with one. Rosario now has a 1.409 OPS in spring.

Mets Lineup:

1. Jeff McNeil (LF)
2. Michael Conforto (RF)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Wilson Ramos (C)
5. Dominic Smith (DH)
6. Pete Alonso (1B)
7. JD Davis (3B)
8. Danny Espinosa (SS)
9. Juan Lagares (CF)

Starting Pitcher: Noah Syndergaard

Today is one of the few times you’ll watch a Mets game that Syndergaard is starting and is not the main event. The main event today is the Spring debut of Edwin Diaz, the big (expensive in terms of prospects) piece from the Cano/Diaz trade this winter. Last year he finished a league leading 65 games (for a league leading 57 saves) totaling 73.1 innings over 73 games. He posted a 1.96 ERA, 1.61 FIP, 0.791 WHIP, 15.2 K/9 and a 208 ERA+. All just outstanding numbers. He was an All-Star, finished 8th in Cy Young voting and 18th in MVP voting.

Other things to watch in no particular order:

1. Jeff McNeil has had only 4 PA’s in spring over two games and is still searching for his first hit, but has scored a run.
2. In 9 PA’s so far, Robinson Cano has 4 hits, all singles, leading to a .444/.444/.444 slash line. Just really wanted to share that. Four is a great number.
3. JD Davis has had a ton of playing time this spring and has made the most of it. In 5 games in the last week and 16 AB’s, he has 5 hits including a double and a homer leading to a .313/.313/.565 line.
4. Dominic Smith already had a great early spring training batting line heading into yesterday’s game, and then he added two more hits. Now in 11 PA’s he has 5 hits and 3 walks leading to a .625/.727/.625 line.
5. In his first outing this week, Syndergaard allowed 2 hits while striking out 2 over 2.0 innings.
6. Today should be Hector Santiago‘s third game of spring. He has tossed 3.0 innings allowing a run (a homer), and two hits while while striking out 5.

Let’s Go Mets!