213 Miles From Shea

Today’s Non-Roster Invitee preview comes via the prospect route in David Peterson. David Peterson was ranked the #2 prospect by Baseball America going into the 2018 season (we actually just recently posted an extended write up about him here) and it makes sense that he was given an NRI for this season.

The Mets are thin at prospects for starting pitching and David Peterson is a far way off, but he is trying to pitch his way into Binghamton and then later the 40 man roster this season. He was drafted 20th in the 2017 draft but didn’t see much playing time due to injury (ingrown toenail).

He was impressive last year in Columbia, posting a 1.82 ERA over 59.1 innings with a sparkling 0.961 WHIP (as stated in the Prospect Review, control is his major selling point) however he struggled in the transition to St. Lucie where he posted a 4.33 ERA over 68.2 innings with a 1.354 WHIP.

The three starting pitching prospects to look at in the Mets system are him, Thomas Szapucki and Anthony Kay. Unlike the the last two, Peterson is not coming off a major arm injury. I expect him to get a solid look early in spring training, especially during split squad season and when starters are throwing 1-2 innings. As soon as starters start throwing 3 and the split squad games are over he’ll probably go to minors camp to see a regular regime of innings.

The Mets bullpen struggled last year and coming into the off-season the Mets only had 1 lefty in the pen (Zamora), while the Mets are planning to rely on their new free agent signing of Wilson, they did pick up a few lefties and invited them to camp as Non-Roster Invitees, including Ryan O’Rourke.

O’Rourke was drafted by Twins in 2010 and made his major league debut in 2015. He pitched across the 2015/16 season (more on that later). Coming into 2017 he got injured and needed Tommy John and missed all of 2017. He became a free agent in November of that year and in that same month he was signed by the Orioles despite the Orioles knowing he was going to need rehab time. He did pitch in the Orioles system eventually in 2018 but didn’t see the majors and was later granted free agency. He was one of the first signings the Mets made this year on November 15th.

MLB Career: 47.0 IP, 28 G, 4.98 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.38 FIP, 3.29 DRA
2018 Minors: 15 G, 14.1 IP, 1.26 ERA, 0.628 WHIP

The numbers he put up in the minors last year are significant. That’s a bounce back. He’ll probably get a long look at spring training and land himself on the short list, if healthy, for mid year call-ups / roster shakeups.

For the second time in three months we are profiling Anthony Kay! (Original post here). Anthony Kay, a lefty starting pitcher from the same high school as Steven Matz is looking to build on last year where he finally got some professional action while recovering from injuries. In late 2018 we wrote:

Kay is the definition of an extreme risk. After he was drafted, his physical highlighted an elbow injury that would later lead to him getting Tommy John surgery. Coming into 2018, he had not pitched in a professional game at all (2017 he tossed Bullpen Sessions). Baseball America wrote about his plus changeup and a 90-95 mph fastball.

And Kay got his chance to pitch this year. In Columbia he went 4-4 over 13 starts and 69.1 innings with a 4.54 ERA. Then in St. Lucie he pitched in 10 games with a 3-7 record and 53.1 innings posting a 3.88 ERA. His 122.2 innings broke the ceiling that BA predicted between 90-110.

Kay makes complete sense for a non-roster invitation. After this season the Mets will need to add him to the 40 man in order to protect him from the Rule V draft and since the Cano/Diaz trade, the Mets are even thinner at starting pitching depth via promotion of young prospects.

I am curious to see how long he gets a look at major league camp. My gut right now says he’s at major league camp until the majority of starting pitchers get 2.0 innings in a game and the split squad games stop, then he’ll be sent to minors camp to get more innings.

Depending on how well he does this could be the last time we are writing a non-roster invitee profile for him (alternatively, we could also be writing a top 30 Mets prospect review article that ends with him being claimed by another team).

This is our third consecutive year writing a preview article for P.J. Conlon, so it’s less of a preview and more a “hi, how’s it going? It’s been a few months since we’ve talked!” Things have changed though for Conlon as he made his major league debut last year! And then a whole bunch of other things happened too.

Before we recap Conlon’s 2018, just like last year’s preview we wanted to remind you of how funny he is.

pic.twitter.com/NS2wWzGSOV

— PJ Conlon (@pjconlon29) June 6, 2018

Me and my 5 spot are coming for the crown next season.. https://t.co/jt8qw0kL01

— PJ Conlon (@pjconlon29) October 4, 2018

Both of these tweets hit on some highlights for Conlon last year. He made his major league debut, becoming the only British (Northern Ireland) born pitcher to record any strikeouts in the league last year. He also got claimed by the Dodgers after his cup of coffee with the Mets and before he could be used with the Dodgers, got put on waivers again and was claimed by the Mets and now has another NRI to spring training.

2018 MLB: 7.2 IP, & ER, 2 BB, 5 K
2018 PCL: 4-9, 23 G, 114.0 IP, 6.55 ERA, 1.632 WHIP
Career Minors: 3.52 ERA,1.230 WHIP

This was the first year we saw a huge departure, statistics wise, from Conlon’s career ERA and WHIP. We will be watching how he recovers in Syracuse. The Mets are still incredibly thin at starting pitching and if they decide to keep Lugo and Gsellman in the pen if they need another starter, then Conlon is on the short list with Flexen to see time.

Anyway, I can’t leave a Conlon article without reposting what we wrote about him the first time:

I couldn’t read his profiles and not think of Tim Kurkjian’s new book I’m Fascinated By Sacrifice Flies where he spends time talking about the abundance of power throwing lefties in the league now. You used to have just a handful as recently as Billy Wagner’s time, but now they’re all over the league. This makes Conlon an old school style lefty pitcher. That being said, the local Belfast paper still posted a video of him hitting 90-mph as if it was something amazing. Which it is. As baseball fans in America, we have gotten used to the idea of 90-mph as practically slow in the minors when this is a human feat of strength to get that.

Ultimately this is his lane. The Mets have a lefty problem anyway that recently got better with the Wilson signing. Conlon is still a fascinating, and hilarious, pitcher. Let’s see what happens!

The Mets signed Arquimedes Carminero back on January 3rd as a free agent. He was signed by the Marlins in 2005 and made his debut in 2013. He was acquired by the Pirates in 2015 and traded to the Mariners in August of 2016.

This is where his biography changes a bit. He was released by the Mariners in December of 2016 and spent 2017 and 2018 playing in the Dominican Winter League (only 6 games in the last two years) and for the Yomiuri Giants in the Central League of the NPB.

2017 NPB: 63.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 1.247 WHIP
2018 NPB: 18.2 IP, 5.79 ERA, 1.768 WHIP

2016 MLB: 60.2 IP, 3.56 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.650 WHIP, 5.70 DRA, -0.5 WARP
MLB Career: 3.83 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 4.74 DRA, 0.1 WARP

Arquimedes has an uphill battle to make the Mets. It’s been a couple years since he’s been in the majors and after a very successful year in Japan he’s coming off one where he struggled. The Mets are hoping though to create some depth in the minors that aren’t all rookie flamethrowers. Unless he has a stunning spring training, he’s not going to break camp on the roster. He becomes an interesting back up plan though when injuries roll around if the Mets need to call-up a pitcher and they don’t want to use one of their young guys options.

At the least, his signing represents a new push for depth in the Mets system.

For the last several years we have walked through every Non-Roster Invitee in Mets camp. It’s one of my favorite article series because I learn so much about the Mets depth chart throughout the weeks leading to Spring Training and the month leading to Spring Training games. Right now the Mets have given out 21 invites to camp, and that list could grow.

Today we’ll start with Luis Avilán, who has a shot of making the roster. Avilán is a left handed pitcher and before the Mets signed Justin Wilson to a 2-year deal, the only lefty in the Mets pen was Danny Zamora.

Luis was signed by the Braves in 2005 as a free agent and made his debut in 2012 against the Mets where he faced one batter and struck him out. Luis has also been involved with two different three way trades. First in 2015 where he went to the Dodgers along with Arroyo and Jim Johnson and then another three way trade last January where he was traded to the White Sox. He became a free agent in November and signed a deal with the Mets on the 10th of January.

Phew! Now let’s get to the stats.

Career Stats: 3.09 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 4.22 DRA, 2.0 WARP
2018 Stats (CWS/PHI): 45.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 4.88 DRA, 0.0 WARP

So his career line looks line. He took a step back last year, specifically with WHIP. This is the area I’m most concerned about. Before 2017 his WHIP was never above 1.19 and since then it’s been 1.37 and above (this has occurred with a spike in DRA). If he doesn’t have this spike, he’s probably signing a deal similar to Justin Wilson.

Luis Avilán will be 29 this year. He needs to be better than Zamora to get a spot on the roster and even with that he will have to fight to get on the active roster to make it out of camp. If he doesn’t impress in camp, he probably stays with the Mets organization, maybe tries it with another team. If he does impress in camp, but not enough to force his way into the Mets bullpen, then he will almost definitely go sign with another team.

Avilán was a smart signing by the Mets to continue to build bullpen depth. Let’s see what happens

Last year we wrote up 15 previews for players given non-roster invites to Spring Training. They ran the gambit from highly-touted prospect, sneaky surprise prospect, veteran depth to Tim Tebow. At some point in the next couple of weeks we’ll go over the new non-roster invites but before we turn the page to 2019, let’s take a look at who was brought in last year. Out of the 15 non-roster invitees we profiled last year, 7 made it to the majors and 9 are still with the Mets.

Tim Tebow
At this point last year, Tim Tebow was a joke invite. However, Tebow didn’t have a terrible year last year in the minors and the way the Mets were blowing through outfielders thanks to injuries (not just at the major league level, in Vegas also), there was a non-zero chance that Tebow would have made his major league debut last year. Alas he broke his hand and ended his season. He had 298 PA’s in Binghamton and ended the season hitting .273/.336/.399. Thanks to the Mets signing a whole bunch of outfielders on minor league deals this year, we expect Tebow to be back in Binghamton and much farther back on the depth chart then he was last August.

Kevin Kaczmarksi
Kevin Kaczmarksi made his major league debut with the Mets last year, which we thought would only happen if something went terribly wrong with the Mets, and something did, they just ran out of outfielders. Kevin played in 4 games getting 5 plate appearances getting a walk and nothing else. In Vegas last year he hit .300/.372/.375 compared to his career line of .296/.377/.410. The additional signings this year of players on minor league deals puts some traffic in front of him. He’ll almost definitely start the season in Syracuse.

Matt den Dekker
 If there ever was an opportunity for den Dekker it was last year. The Mets re-acquired the outfielder they traded to the Nationals after he spent a season with Detroit. When he got his shot last year, he went hit-less in 18 AB’s, collecting 2 walks thus posting an OBP of .095. He is currently a free agent.

Zach Borenstein
The Mets signed Zach Borenstein to a minor league deal in November of 2017 with an invitation to Spring Training. He played the whole season at Las Vegas, getting 572 PAs posting a .248/.357/.477 line (career line .277/.355/.498). He just signed another minor league contract, this time with the Cubs, last week.

David Thompson
A common theme for the Mets, David Thompson missed significant playing time last year due to injury. He may have had a path to a bench spot this year, but the Mets are bursting with corner infielders. Last year over 66 AB’s he hit .258/.329/.379 for Vegas. The year before he hit .263/.325/.429 in Binghamton (and .328/.371/.569 in the Fall League).

Phillip Evans
For a second straight year, Phillip Evans got some playing time with the big league squad. At the end of 2017 he hit .303/.395/.364 in 38 PA’s. In 2018 he hit .143/.217/.143 over 23 PA’s. He became a free agent at the end of the season and like Borenstein signed a deal with the Cubs.

Ty Kelly
Fan Favorite Ty Kelly found his way back to the Mets last year by way of a minor league deal and made it back to the majors. He got 12 PA’s with 1 hit and 1 run and is currently a free agent.

Peter Alonso
Peter Alonso is the first player on this list we expect to see in Queens this year. Before the Mets signed Jed Lowrie, Alonso was competing for a spot on the Opening Day Roster. He still is, but there are a lot of major league infielders ahead of him right now, so there’s reason to keep him down in the minors to get an extra year of playing time. However, he was a monster last year hitting 36 homers with a .285/.395/.579 slash line and should have been called up, but this is the Mets.

Patrick Mazeika
Mazeika hit .231/.328/.363, a significant drop from his career line of .290/.392/.424. It was also his first full year in Binghamton and I imagine catching in April in Binghamton must be incredibly tough on your body. He’s still in the Mets organization and has another non-roster invitation for 2019. Ali Sanchez is the Mets catcher prospect to watch, Mazeika has the inside track for back up catcher if the Mets have dive into their depth chart.

Jose Lobaton
Speaking of having to dive into catching depth, the Mets signed Jose Lobaton to a minor league deal in case something happened to Plawecki and d’Arnaud and of course something happened to d’Arnaud so Lobaton got some playing time in Queens. In 57 PA’s he hit .143/.246/.224. Last week he signed a deal with the Mariners

Adonis Uceta
Adonis Uceta dealt with an injury pretty early on in the season and it really messed with his playing time. He posted a 4.26 ERA over 16 games and 25.1 innings.

Corey Taylor
Corey Taylor pitched in Binghamton and Las Vegas last year, posting a combined 3.12 ERA over 66.1 innings from 45 games (3 starts). His WHIP was higher than his career numbers, 1.432 vs 1.312. Taylor has received another non-roster invite for the upcoming season. The new bullpen gives him a blocked path but a good start in Syracuse and who knows what happens.

Drew Smith
Smith was traded to the Mets from the Rays for Lucas Duda in 2017 and earned a non-roster invite last season. He did well enough in the minors to earn a spot in the Mets bullpen last year and he got some work in, appearing in 27 games pitching 28.0 innings posting a 3.54 ERA, 3.66 FIP and a 1.429 WHIP. He is a success story from the NRI crew last year.

Matt Purke
Matt Purke did not have a good season in Las Vegas posting a 7.14 ERA over 38 game sand 46.2 innings. He was signed as a free agent from the White Sox at the end of the 2017 season and he is still currently a free agent.

PJ Conlon
The man with an amazing sense of humor made his major league debut with the Mets last year, appearing in 3 games, makign two starts allowing 7 runs over 7.2 innings. Because of how the Mets handled the situation, they had to put him through waivers, so he ended up becoming a Dodger. But then the Dodgers a few days later had to put him on waivers and the Mets got him back. He has another non-roster invite for the upcoming season.

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference. For the last 4-5 weeks we’ve gone through a lot of Mets players seeing where projections were correct, underestimated or overestimated playing ability. The Mets mid-season tear-down, injuries, and a off-season trades made this journey into one filled with good byes.

We say good bye to this series of articles today with our last entry – Michael Conforto! So much next year is centered around Conforto. Let’s see how he fared compared to his projections.

2018 Average Projections: 503 PA, 415 AB, 109 H, 25 HR, .266/.355/.502
2018 Actual: 638 PA, 543 AB, 132 H, 28 HR, .243/.350/.448
From July 20th On: .273/.356/.539

On the whole Conforto performed below expectations, hitting about 20 points below the projected line, 5 points below the on base line (which is barely statistically significant) and slugging over 50 points his projected line.

That being said, his second half of the season is above the projected line in every category. No individual projection from last year (see them here) projected Conforto to struggle. The Mets are hoping that doesn’t happen again and the Conforto we had in the second half is the Conforto we get all year.

For a while last year it looked like Conforto was going to struggle to make 20 homers, he ended two shy of 30. Let’s see what he does next year!

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.

Going into last season, Yoenis Cespedes was a critical part of the lineup, the lineup only worked if Cespedes was his normal self. However, Cespedes was dealing with two major heel issues last year that it looks like the Mets wanted him to play through. That led to losing Cespedes for a good chunk of last year and probably half if not all of this year.

2017 Stats: 321 PA, 291 AB, 85 H, 17 HR, .292/.352/.540
2018 Average Projected: 519 PA, 487 AB, 131 H, 28 HR, .274/.332
2018 Actual:157 PA, 141 AB, 37 H, 9 HR, .262/.325/.496

Not surprisingly the projections were wrong about playing time (as they often are for injured players, even oft injured ones) and were a little too high on his slash line (as you would expect a player to be, playing through an undisclosed injury). You can read his projected stat lines here.

I’m curious as to how computer models handle his 2019 and his 2020 season. Next year they’ll have to handle if his July return time is correct (again, not likely only because it’s the Mets) and how much playing time he gets when he comes back (2/3 of 5 games a week?). Then, based on that, how does he project over a whole season in 2020, especially considering his age.

I guess we’ll find out in a few weeks!

Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.

Wilmer Flores, from tears, to a multitude of walk-off’s, will go down in Mets lore history. You already know by now the Mets parted ways with him this off-season and that he signed a 1-year deal with the Diamondbacks. For the last several years, Mets fans have always joked with themselves, “is he good enough to start everyday” and for the last couple of years, there have been enough injuries where the answer has been “it doesn’t matter, he basically has to” until he gets injured.

2018 Average Projection: 446 PA, 316 AB, 96 H, 17 HR, .270/.311/.465
2018 Actual: 429 PA, 386 AB, 103 H, 11 HR, .267/.319/.417

All things considered, like haphazard playing time, the projections did remarkably well with Flores. You can see them here. They all missed his dip in power, which was notable and probably made Flores a role-player in the eyes of other teams this off-season rather than a starter. But Flores put up good numbers again and did well for a bench player.

More importantly for this article, he played close to his projected numbers. Now those numbers are not enough to push the Mets forward which is why he’s not a Met anymore. It’s just amazing that even with a dip in power, he seemed to always get hits when it counted.

Happy trails Wilmer! We’ll see you in September in Queens!