Every spring at 213 we gather a whole bunch of projections for players and average them together to see what a conglomerate of baseball sources think a given player will perform over the year. It’s wholly unscientific – averaging averages and not weighting them for previous accuracy or amount of playing time they feel a player will see.
Before the season last year, we wrote about how Amed Rosario ended 2018 strong, hitting .303/.335/.444 from August 10th on. Defensively in 2019, his season was similar – struggling so much at the start of the season that there was a rumor that the Mets were going to put him in Center by the end of the season, and then he turned things around. Projections before 2019 took his 2018 tale of two seasons and produced the following lines:
2019 Stats: 655 PA, 616 AB, 15 HR, .287/.323/.432, .755 OPS, 1.8 WAR, 96 DRC+
Amed Rosario outperformed what everyone was thinking with the bat. In every category except WAR. That’s fantastic for him and even more amazing for us! Interestingly, the projection programs were fairly grouped together on Rosario. All of them, except ESPN, had him getting on base at about a .300 clip (and ESPN, which usually over projects, under projected everyone).
What we’ll look for in 2020 is first, are the computers super aligned on a result again? Second, do they project Rosario at his 2019 numbers, above his 2019 numbers (breakout?) or below them, suggesting that there is some mean for Rosario to regress too. Only because I’ve done a bunch of these articles over the last couple of years, my gut tells me that projections will show a regression to some career line, despite Rosario only playing for parts of 3 seasons. Generally when the algorithms are this aligned, there’s something that they are seeing in the player. If that happens, I also feel that Rosario will out perform them again.