213 Miles From Shea

The Mets are on the brink of being swept for two consecutive series this afternoon as they take on the Orioles. After a terrible showing in Kansas City, the Mets have struggled to find footing in Baltimore the last two days in front of sellout crowds. The Orioles have acted like the 2023 Orioles so far this weekend – they’ve racked up hits, drove in runners and their bullpen has shut the door behind them. Can the Mets make a little magic today?

The Mets rotation turns over for the first time since the trade deadline with José Quintana returning to the mound today. Over his first three starts of the season he has allowed seven runs, eight earned, over 17 2/3 innings which has translated to a 3.57 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 1.302 WHIP and a 118 ERA+. Each of his three starts have been quality starts. He’s also given up exactly six hits and zero homers in each start. The Orioles have the following career numbers against Quintana:

• James McCann 3-18, 3B, 4 K, 2 BB
• Adam Frazier 3-16, 2 K
• Ramón Urías 1-2
• Anthony Santander 0-1, K
• Austin Hays 1-1, 2B
• Ryan Mountcastle 1-1, 2B

The Mets bats will try to get something going today against Kyle Bradish who has really stepped up in his second year. Over 20 starts and 111 innings he has a 3.32 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 1.117 WHIP and a 126 ERA+. He’s coming off of a start where he allowed three runs over seven innings and he’s allowed eight runs over 13 2/3 in his last two starts. Before his last two starts he allowed eight runs total in his previous seven starts (44 1/3 innings), a 1.62 ERA. The only Met on the roster who has seen Bradish in an official game is Rafael Ortega, who is 0-for-2 with a strikeout.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Can Quintana give the bullpen a bit of a rest today. All of the relief pitching yesterday was handled by Bickford and Hartwig, the latter working for two consecutive days. Everyone in the Mets bullpen outside of Adam Ottavino and Raley has pitched this weekend. Quintana could help the pen and the overall morale of the team if he can pitch deep and get the Mets in a position where they need Ottavino and Raley. This of course means the Mets need to…
2. Score runs and avoid striking out. The Mets bats have done the pitching no favors this week. The Mets had seven hits last night and a walk but turned that into only three runs. They had 11 strikeouts with Nimmo, Marte and Baty all having multiple strikeouts.
3. Jeff McNeil. Jeff McNeil had a strong start to the week where he went 5-for-14 scoring three runs and hitting a triple. He then went silent for back to back games going 0-for-8 at the plate. Last night he was the Mets offense going 2-for-4 with a homer, finally ticking over 100 hits on the season.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets descent continued last night. The Orioles won 10-3 and now the Mets are on a four game losing streak. If they lose tonight, the Mets will be ten games below .500. There are only 3.5 games separating the Nationals and the Mets at the bottom of the NL East.

David Peterson was a bright spot for the Mets last night as he had a solid return to the Mets starting rotation. Now Tylor Megill looks to do the same tonight!

Tylor Megill has made 15 starts (71 1/3 innings) with the Mets this year posting a 5.17 ERA, 5.09 FIP, 1.668 WHIP and an 80 ERA+. Things have been rough for Megill since he was sent down to the minors. He’s allowed 24 runs over five starts, with only start in that stretch being a quality start. His last one was a bit better, allowing two runs on three hits over six innings. He has a tough first start back in the majors though against the Orioles. The only Oriole who has faced Megill in an official game is Adam Frazier who is 2-for-3 with a double.

The Mets bats will see a sort-of familiar face in Kyle Gibson tonight. The long-time Minnesota Twin spent part of the 2021 season and all of last year with the Phillies. This year he has pitched 133 innings with a 4.53 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.308 WHIP and a 92 ERA+. He’s currently leading the league in hits allowed at 132. Gibson has much better recently posting a 3.00 ERA. 2.82 FIP over his last three starts. In those 18 innings he has allowed only 15 hits while striking out 18 batters. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 18, 51, 2 2B, 8 K, 6 BB
• Pete Alonso 0-14, 5 K, 3 BB
• Omar Narváez 5-20, 2B, K, BB
• Brandon Nimmo 4-15, 2B, HR, 2 K, 3 BB
• Daniel Vogelbach 6-11, 2B, HR, K, 2 BB
• Jeff McNeil 5-16, 2 2B, HR< 2 K
• Starling Marte 5-10, 2B, 2 K, BB
• Rafael Ortega 1-8, 2B, K
• DJ Stewart 0-3, K
• Brett Baty 0-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Returning Mets! Last night we saw the return of Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte to the lineup. Nimmo had a very Nimmo night going 0-for-1 but working two walks. Starling Marte went 0-for-4 with a strikeout. If the Mets are going to have any hope of winning ballgames for the rest of the season, they’re going to need both players to stay healthy and get consistent.
2. Francisco Lindor is the Mets offense right now. While the rest of the Mets bats have been struggling lately, Lindor has been raking. In his last six games he has gone 9-for-22 at the plate with two doubles and three homers. He’s having one of the best seasons by a shortstop in Mets history (again).
3. Tylor Megill’s moment. The rest of the season feels like an almost two month audition for Tylor Megill. Right now the Mets have three openings in their rotation next season. Megill has been great at times. He’s been terrible at times. The Mets are going to need to send him out every five days now. This is his moment to gain some momentum and fight for a rotation spot next year.
4. Bonus! Me! I’ve been writing a Mets blog since 2007, 213 Miles From Shea, because I raised outside of Baltimore, 213 miles from Shea Stadium. I now live only 20ish miles from Citi Field, but I almost always take advantage of a Mets / Orioles series in Baltimore to see my hometown. Baltimore is important to me and it’s part of the reason that I had to purchase a Buck Showalter Mets shirsey. So if you see someone wearing a Mets Showalter shirsey at the game tonight, it’s probably me! Please say hello!

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets got swept by the last place Royals yesterday and now head to Baltimore to take on the first place Orioles. The Orioles have a +62 run differential on the season and are currently two games above the Rays for first place. If you haven’t checked in on the AL East recently, the division is bonkers. Top to bottom is separated by 10 games and the last place Yankees are five games above .500 themselves. No one in the division has a negative run differential. Keeping the division close, every team has gone either 5-5 or 6-4 in their last 10 games. Can the Mets play spoiler here?

David Peterson returns to the rotation tonight for the Mets. He’s pitched 62 1/3 innings over 17 games including 11 starts with a 5.92 ERA, 4.31 FIP, 1.620 WHIP and a 70 ERA+. Peterson has had a bit of resurgence coming out of the bullpen. In his six games relieving he has pitched eight innings with a 2.25 ERA while striking out eight batters. In 11 games as a starter he had a 6.46 ERA over 54 1/3 innings. The Orioles have the following career numbers against Peterson:

• Anthony Santander 0-3, K, BB
• Ryan Mountcastle 0-3, K
• Ryan McKenna 0-1

The Mets bats will try to find themselves against Dean Kremer tonight. Over 22 starts (119 2/3 innings), Kremer has a 4.66 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 1.337 WHIP and a 90 ERA+. July was a mixed bag for Kremer. Overall he had a 3.45 ERA over five games, striking out 29 batters over 28 2/3 innings. This is good compared to his season numbers! He had two rough starts that are weighing heavily on the numbers, one where he allowed five runs over 4 2/3, and another where he allowed three runs over four innings. His other three starts were excellent. This will be Kremer’s first time facing the Mets and anyone on the Mets roster.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Buck’s Return. This is Buck Showalter’s return to Baltimore. Buck is loved in Charm City. When the Mets first brought him on my phone was blowing up from Orioles fans I grew up with telling me how excited they were that he was managing again. My Mom who is a huge Orioles and Mets fan has been talking about for weeks how excited she is to see him. This is a big deal for Baltimore!
2. Have you seen the walls though? The Mets lasted played in Camden Yards in 2021. After that season the Orioles moved the left field fence back about 30 feet. If you haven’t seen it yet, it’s weird. It resembles like an old stadium maker video game and the Orioles just deleted the first part of the section. Not only is the outfield larger because of this but the fence is considerably higher (the Orioles used to have a low fence in left).
3. Can the offense string some hits together today? The Mets were shutout on Wednesday and lost 9-2 yesterday. In yesterday’s game they had only five hits, with Pete Alonso collecting two of them. Their two runs were both from Francisco Lindor’s 22nd homer of the season. Brandon Nimmo’s absence coupled with the trade Pham/Canha trade has hurt the lineup’s length. Hopefully the Mets can return to basics today, string hits together and score runs.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to salvage the series against the Royals this afternoon and avoid the sweep on getaway day. The Mets offense couldn’t score any runs last night despite Jeff McNeil’s big 3-for-5 day at the plate. It was also the second game in a row that Brandon Nimmo rested due to tightness in his quad. Before the game he said he was missing that last 10 percent to be ready to go. There is zero reason for Brandon Nimmo to rush back right now.

Carlos Carrasco takes the mound tonight and he looks to rebound from his last start where he allowed eight runs, six earned, over 2 1/3 innings against the Nationals. In his last three starts he has allowed 17 runs, 15 earned, over 9 1/3 innings of work (14.46 ERA, 4.66 FIP). Amazingly, he has allowed that many runs, but only one homerun, despite allowing 12 homers in his other 12 starts. Overall on the season, over 15 starts (70 1/3 innings), Carrasco has a 6.40 ERA, 5.77 FIP, 1.649 WHIP and a 64 ERA+.

Only two players on the Royals roster have seen Carrasco in a major league game. Salvador Perez is 7-for-30 with nine strikeouts. Edward Olivares is 1-for-3 with a strikeout.

Brady Singer has pitched 113 2/3 innings over 21 starts this season with a 5.46 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.460 WHIP and an 81 ERA+. In his last two starts he has allowed only four runs over 11 innings (3.27 ERA, 1.18 FIP) while striking out 19 batters. This was a positive departure from his two previous starts before that where he allowed 10 runs from 20 hits over 13 innings (6.92 FIP, 4.66 ERA). Which Brady Singer will show up this afternoon to take on the Mets? The Mets have the following, limited career stats against him:

• Francisco Lindor 0-5, 3 K
• Danny Mendick 0-2
• DJ Stewart 2-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco is a free agent at the end of the season. Every start from here on out is an audition for any major league team. He started off the month of July looking spectacular with an eight inning shutout performance. In his last three starts there’s been a crazy 10 run difference between his ERA (14.46) and his FIP (4.66). Here’s hoping Carrasco can go on a bit of a run here to close out the season.
2. Danny Mendick. Mendick is arbitration eligible in 2024 and can be a free agent in 2026. He found his way to the Mets when the White Sox granted him free agency in November 2022. It is very possible Mendick is with the team next season. While I would personally rather see the Mets give more playing time to younger right now, Mendick has been getting a long look since the end of July. In his last three games he has gone 4-for-10 with a double. He only has five hits on the season so he’s done most of his damage this week. Is this the start of a hot streak?
3. Jeff McNeil. Jeff McNeil has had to fill in for Brandon Nimmo for the last couple of days at the start of the lineup and has responded with some great days at the plate. In his last three games, McNeil has gone 5-for-14 with a triple and scored three runs. His best day was yesterday where he slapped in three hits, bringing him to 99 on the season. Yesterday was the second game in a row where McNeil was exclusively in the outfield. With Luisangel looming in the system now, I am curious to see the share of games Jeff gets in the outfield compared to second going forward.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets will try to rebound tonight after a bizarre series opener with the Royals. The Mets and Royals went into extra innings last night, with the Mets scoring twice in the top of the tenth. The Royals were able to tie the game thanks a poor throw from Brett Baty. Then Josh Walker came into his first game since being recalled to the Mets. He had pitch-com issue that led to a walk-off balk (and a Royals Gatorade shower). Just a strange game. Anyway, the Mets have Kodai Senga on the mound tonight to help us forget all about yesterday.

Kodai Senga has pitched 19 games (105 innings) with a 3.17 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.238 WHIP and a 130 ERA+. He was much more like himself in his last start, holding the Nationals to one run over six innings. In the month of July he’s pitched 23 1/3 innings allowing only five earned runs (1.93 ERA, 3.06 FIP). This will be his first career start against the Royals.

The Mets were supposed to face Alec Marsh tonight, but Marsh pitched the sixth inning last night so the Royals are calling up Cole Ragans. In Cole’s only start with the Royals this season he allowed one run from four hits over five innings. He pitched 17 games out of the bullpen for the Rangers before joining the Royals where he allowed 17 runs, 16 earned, over 24 1/3 innings of work (5.92 ERA, 5.29 FIP, 1.397 WHIP, 74 ERA+). This will be Ragans’ first time facing the Mets.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Pete Alonso. Pete Alonso went 2-for-5 at the plate with his 31st homer of the season. One of the things to watch for the rest of the season is if he will get to 50 homers. Before his injury, he was hitting about 10 homers per month. He has about two months to go and 19 homers left.
2. Francisco Álvarez. Álvarez also went 2-for-5 at the plate last night hitting his 21st homer of the season. He is quickly rising through the historical ranks of young, prolific hitting catchers. He’s also now tied, again, with Francisco Lindor for homers on the team. His development is another reason to keep watching the Mets while they pivot for 2024 and beyond.
3. Will the defense improve? The Mets defense has been costing them games. Last night it was Álvarez and Baty who made their 10th and 8th error on the season respectively. The pressure for 2023 is off right now and for their development they should see an increase of time playing their positions so they can get more chances to improve. This is also an argument for why the Mets should call up Mauricio but that’s a conversation for another day.

Let’s Go Mets!

It’s been a wild few days. Players we expected to be traded (David Robertson, Mark Canha, and Tommy Pham) were traded. Players we thought were unlikely but possible to be traded (Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Dominic Leone) were traded. Now the Mets turn an eye to 2024. For the rest of the season we are looking at how players on the roster fit into long-term plans. The Mets are also five games below .500 and six games out of the Wild Card. They also face a team this week in the Royals who are 32-75 with a -169 run differential (for comparison, the Mets are -10). Let’s see what happens!

Tonight’s starter is part of that 2024 plan. José Quintana makes his third start since returning from the injured list. He’s pitched a total of 11 innings, allowing five runs, four earned, while striking out eight (3.27 ERA, 2.64 FIP). Quintana also went from 77 pitches in his first start to 94 in his second, a positive sign. A not-so positive sign though was going from no walks his first time out to walking three batters. There are currently on three members of the Royals who have seen Quintana in a major league game. Two of them (Greinke and Lyles) are pitchers. Salvador Perez is 19-for-66 in his career against Quintana with four doubles, a triple, two homers and 14 strikeouts.

The Mets bats will get probably their final look at Zack Greinke as his stellar career starts to come to a close. Over 20 starts (101 2/3 innings) he has a 5.49 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 1.279 WHIP and an 80 ERA+. In the month of July he’s allowed 12 runs over 14 1/3 innings from 15 hits including five homers. Teams have just been racking up the hits against him this year and it shows as his xBA is in the 5th percentile. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Omar Narváez 2-6, K
• Francisco Lindor 1-3, 2B
• DJ Stewart 1-3
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-3, 2 K
• Pete Alonso 1-2, 2B
• Danny Mendick 0-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. How does the team readjust? About an hour or so before the trade deadline, Max Scherzer talked to The Athletic and stated that the Mets were focusing more on 2025. This reality will be a jolt to players like Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil. Ultimately though, the future of this team, and whether they compete or not in 2024 is dependent on what they do next. With the baby Mets, they are more than capable to make some magic happen.
2. Francisco Lindor has been on fire. On Sunday Lindor went 3-for-4 at the plat with a homerun, his second in two days. Since July 25th Lindor is 9-for-23 at the plate with two doubles and two homers while walking four times (.391/.482/.739). Lindor has the ability tonight to set the tone for this series in Kansas City.
3. How much playing time does Danny Mendick get? The Mets should be playing their young prospects a lot more in the coming weeks. Mendick is not part of that group, but can play all over the infield and went 2-for-3 with a double on Sunday. For context, he’s 3-for-17 on the season. The Mets should not prioritize playing Mendick, but it feels like a very Mets and plausible that he’ll see consistent playing time like he has over the last week.

Let’s Go Mets!

Yesterday was a wild one in Metsville. The Mets got routed by the Nationals 11-6, despite the Mets hitting four homers in the game, and that’s not even the most memorable part of the day! Before the game was scheduled to start, it was reported that Max Scherzer was being traded to the Rangers. Then there was a period of a couple of hours where the details and the reality of if the trade would happen. This coincided with a rain delay at Citi Field, so everyone’s attention could be on Scherzer and the anniversary of Wilmer Flores getting traded/not traded.

Now the Mets have to pivot from last night’s game to today’s matinee where they can still take the series from the Nationals with a win. Justin Verlander is starting for the Mets today and we already know there are trade rumors around him swirling. Let’s jump into another crazy day of Mets baseball.

Justin Verlander has pitched 89 innings over 15 starts with a 3.24 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.146 WHIP and a 128 ERA+. He has been way more Scherzer like in his last six starts with a 1.46 ERA (3.37 FIP) from allowing eight runs, six earned, over 37 innings while striking out 32. In this stretch he has allowed only one homer, compared to eight homers in his previous nine starts. The Nationals have the following career numbers against him:

• Jeimer Candelario 1-7, HR, 4 K, BB
• Corey Dickerson 0-11, 2 K
• Dominic Smith 0-3, K
• Michael Chavis 0-3, 3 K
• Riley Adams 1-2, K
• Lane Thomas 0-2

The Mets bats face a familiar foe this afternoon in Trevor Williams. The former Met has started 21 games and pitched 104 2/3 innings this season for the Nationals putting up a 4.47 ERA, 5.45 FIP, 1.443 WHIP and a 94 ERA+. He’s coming off of a rough start against the Rockies where they were able to tag him for four runs from nine hits over six innings. He’s had some struggles in his last six starts allowing 17 runs over 28 2/3 innings (5.34 ERA), giving up seven homers in that stretch. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Tommy Pham 2-13, 2 2B, HR, 3 K, 2 BB
• Pete Alonso 2-11, 2B, HR, 2 K, BB
• Francisco Lindor 2-12, 2B, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 3-11, 2B, 2 K, 2 BB
• Brandon Nimmo 1-8, 3 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 2-4, 2 K, BB
• Danny Mendick 2-3, HR, K
• Omar Narváez 2-5, 2B, K
• Brett Baty 3-4, HR, K
• Francisco Álvarez 1-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Is this Verlander’s last start as a Met? On Friday night we wrote the same thing about Scherzer. Between Scherzer’s up and down year and his player option for next year, it just felt very unlikely that the Mets would trade Scherzer. There was much more of a feeling they would end up trading Verlander. Who knows about Verlander today. He definitely fits into what the Mets are looking for in 2024 and he’s playing a lot more like the Verlander we thought we would get lately. At the same time, that could return an amazing prospect or two and we’ve seen with Scherzer that the Mets are not afraid to take on money to get the player they want. Everything is a possibility right now. Verlander could stay with the Mets. He could pitch regularly and be traded on Tuesday. He could be pulled from this start early. He could be a late scratch. Just wild times right now.
2. Checking in on our likely to be traded bats. Tommy Pham had a big night at the plate yesterday going 2-for-4 with a homer. Mark Canha went 2-for-3. Both scored a run. As of writing this (9:50 AM), the only notable bats that have been moved in the last week are Carlos Santana, Amed Rosario and Kiké Hernández. The market for bats has not been moving yet at the same speed as pitching. Both Canha and Pham remain on #HugWatch today and probably will get moved once the market gets going.
3. Daniel Vogelbach. Are any baseball organizations looking for a DH paying attention to Vogelbach? Since July 6th Vogelbach has had 33 plate appearances and is slashing .333/.394/.567 (.961). He has 10 hits, including a double and two homers while striking out eight times. It’s a small sample size but he’s quietly putting together a nice little run. He’s eligible for arbitration next year and will be a free agent in 2025.

Let’s Go Mets!

Here come the Mets!

The Mets go for their third win in a row tonight as they take on the Nationals. Vintage Max Scherzer started yesterday and Pete Alonso smacked two homers as the Mets beat the Nationals 5-1. The Mets are now five games below .500 and 6.5 games out of the Wild Card race.

Carlos Carrasco will look to reverse his last two starts as he takes the mound tonight. Over his last two starts he has allowed nine runs from 16 hits over seven innings of work. Before the All-Star break he pitched eight shutout innings against the Diamondbacks. He has shown moments of brilliance this year between periods of frustrating performance. Overall on the season he has pitched 68 innings with a 5.82 ERA, 5.88 FIP, 1.574 WHIP and a 71 ERA+. The Nationals have the following career numbers against him:

• Jeimer Candelario 4-13, 3 K, 2 BB
• Corey Dickerson 2-13, 4 K
• Lane Thomas 3-3, 2B, BB
• Luis García 3-7, 2B, K
• Riley Adams 4-7, 2 HR, K
• Joey Meneses 1-4, K
• Keibert Ruiz 1-4, 2 K
• CJ Abrams 0-3
• Ildemaro Vargas 1-4
• Michael Chavis 2-2, 2B

The Mets have to face their nemesis again – lefty starting pitching. Patrick Corbin has made 21 starts totaling 120 1/3 innings this year with a 5.01 ERA, 4.87 FIP, 1.554 WHIP and a 84 ERA+. He is currently leading the league for hits allowed (151), his third time in the last four seasons leading the league in that category. He’s allowed nine runs, eight earned, over his last two starts (11 2/3 innings) from 16 hits and three walks. Corbin had a solid start against the Mets back in May where he held the Mets to two runs over six innings, despite allowing eight hits. It was a part of seven consecutive starts for Corbin where he allowed three runs per less, which was notable given where he was last season. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 14-40, 2 2B, 5 HR, 12 K, 8 BB
• Brandon Nimmo 8-32, 11 K, 2 BB
• Jeff McNeil 10-32, 2B, 4 K, 2 BB
• Francisco Lindor 8-32, 2 2B, 8 K
• Tommy Pham 6-14, 2B, K, 4 BB
• Mark Canha 6-18, HR, K, BB
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-2, BB
• Francisco Álvarez 0-1, BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Is this Carrasco’s last start as a Met? Carlos Carrasco is a free agent at the end of the season, which makes him more likely than anyone else in the rotation to get moved before Tuesday. Personally, I think if he didn’t get rocked in his last start he wouldn’t even be pitching tonight for the Mets tonight and probably would have already been moved. Carrasco has shown that he still can have dominating games, and for a team that is missing a starting pitcher, Carrasco is better option than a bullpen game once a week. There’s a solid chance that tonight is his last start with the Mets.
2. Hitters on #HugWatch. Mark Canha and Tommy Pham are the two bats that constantly come up in trade rumors about the Mets. Canha went 0-for-3 with a walk last night, but that hides the type of night he had. He had at least one hit stolen by a wonderful play and he made a wonderful play himself. Tommy Pham finally broke his hitless streak and went 1-for4 on the night. Until Tuesday’s deadline hits we are going to be watching this pair very closely.
3. Pete Alonso. One of the bright spots earlier this season was the historic homerun pace Pete Alonso was on. After he was hit by a pitch and came back to field in about half the time initially thought, he naturally fell off the pace. Last night he clobbered two homers, providing all of the Mets offense. He now has 30 on the season. He and Mike Piazza are the only players to do that four times in Mets history. He also has a chance now to finish with 50 homers again for the second time in his career.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets enter tonight’s game officially as sellers on the trade market. The Mets beat the Nationals last night 2-1, after a late rally that was interrupted by a weather delay. While this was all happening, Eppler was working out a trade involving the Mets closer, David Robertson.

For the Mets team, it’s definitely a reality moment. The only thing the Mets players can do at this point is keep playing the games. There are several other players who are expected to get traded this week, so every lineup and every in-game move the Mets make will get overly scrutinized.

Max Scherzer looks to rebound after his poor start his last time out in Boston. He allowed five runs on four homers in six innings. Homeruns have have been his downfall this year, allowing nine in his last four starts. Overall this season he has pitched 100 2/3 innings with a 4.20 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 1.192 WHIP and a 98 ERA+. Which Max shows up tonight? The one who allowed four homers in his last start or the wone who held the Dodgers to a hit and nothing else on July 16th?

Max has made one start against the Nationals this year where he held them to one run from two hits and two walks over five innings while striking out six. The Nationals have the following career numbers against him:

• Corey Dickerson 5-18, HR, 4 K
• Dominic Smith 0-17, 7 K, 3 BB
• Luis García 4-8, HR, K
• Lane Thomas 0-3, 2 K, BB
• Jeimer Candelario 1-6, 2 K, BB
• Keibert Ruiz 1-7, K
• Joney Meneses 0-4, 2 K
• CJ Abrams 2-4, 2B
• Ildemaro Vargas 0-3

MacKenzie Gore makes his 21st start of the season tonight. Over 101 innings Gore has a 4.37 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 1.436 WHIP and a 96 ERA+. He has fallen into a pattern recently where he allows one run or less in a start or five runs or more. This pattern alternates all the way back to June 10th. He’s coming off of a start where he allowed no runs over five innings to the Giants. The start before that he allowed five runs over 6 1/3 to the Cubs. Gore has faced the Mets tice this season allowing only one run from nine hits over 10 innings while striking out 13 batters. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Tommy Pham 2-9, 6 K, BB
• Brandon Nimmo 1-5, 2 K, BB
• Pete Alonso 0-4, K, BB
• Mark Canha 0-5, 3 K
• Jeff McNeil 4-4, BB
• Francisco Lindor 0-5
• Francisco Álvarez 0-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Is this Scherzer’s last start as a Met? Most likely, no. Scherzer will probably be a Met beyond the trade deadline because of his player option for next season. Even if Max isn’t a top tier ace next season, there are reasons to believe he can make adjustments in the off-season and become a #2 or #3 type pitcher for the Mets. In other words, he still fits in the 2024 plans. It’s not impossible though that someone tries to make a trade so there is still a chance that this is his last start as a Met.
2. Hitters likely to be traded. The most likely hitters on the Mets to be traded are Mark Canha and Tommy Pham. Canha was a significant part of the Mets offense last night going 2-for-3 at the plate and plating a critical RBI on a sacrifice fly. Tommy Pham didn’t play last night as he is still recovering from his groin injury. All eyes will be on both players for the next several days as we head straight into #HugWatch season.
3. The Mets are getting hit by a lot of pitches recently. Last night the Mets were hit by pitches three times. That puts them up to 72 on the season, far ahead of the Mariners at 66 and the Reds at 58. This is really dangerous! And notable! It didn’t feel like anything last night was on purpose, but that still doesn’t make it alight. It would be nice if the MLB / umpire crew came in and gave a warning to opposing pitchers that if they keep throwing inside, miss, and hit a Met that there will be consequences.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets open up a series against the Nationals tonight after a disappointing loss yesterday. The Mets, perpetually stuck in the mud, find themselves seven games below .500 and 7.5 games out of the Wild Card. In the last month they’ve barely moved in the race in either direction. With the Angels holding onto Ohtani and going for it with a Lucas Giolito trade – the trade deadline season is now fully open. The Mets plans right now are like the team – just stuck. A good weekend can make the Mets feel good about doing nothing at the deadline, a terrible weekend might set off a small fire sale. But what if the Mets and Nationals split? We have to play the games to see what happens!

Kodai Senga returns to the mound after a frustrating start in Boston. He was roughed up over the first two innings, then found his stride in the third. Then the skies opened up and Fenway flooded. Over 99 innings this season he has a 3.27 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.263 WHIP and a 126 ERA+. He pitched against the Nationals way back on April 26th allowing two runs from five hits and four walks over five innings of work while striking out 7. This was back when Senga was struggling with his command (he walked four batters in four consecutive starts). The Nationals have the following career numbers against Senga:

• Alex Call 0-2, 2 K, BB
• Keibert Ruiz 0-2, BB
• Luis García 0-2, BB
• Jeimer Candelario 0-3, 2 K
• Dominic Smith 1-2, 2B
• Lane Thomas 1-1, BB
• Joey Meneses 1-3
• CJ Abrams 2-2

The Mets will faces off against Josiah Gray, who is in the midst of a breakout season. Over 20 starts, 112 1/3 innings, he has a 3.45 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 1.442 WHIP and a 121 ERA+. For comparison, in his career he has a 4.59 ERA, 5.52 FIP, 1.387 WHIP and an 88 ERA+. After a couple of rough starts at the beginning of July where he allowed nine runs over 10 innings, he rebounded nicely his last time out holding the Giants to one run over seven innings. He faced the Mets earlier this season and held the Mets scoreless over six innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 0-8, 2 K, 2 BB
• Pete Alonso 3-9, 2B, HR, 4 K, BB
• Brandon Nimmo 4-8, 2B, 3B, 2 K, BB
• Jeff McNeil 4-9, 2B, HR
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-3, K, 2 BB
• Mark Canha 1-3, K, BB
• Brett Baty 1-2, 2B
• Tommy Pham 1-2, HR, K, BB
• Francisco Álvarez 1-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. A battle of All-Stars. The Mets and Nationals are fourth and fifth in the National League respectively but tonight is a battle of 2023 All-Stars as both Senga and Gray earned the honors a few weeks ago. Both Senga and Gray have looked dominate at periods of time this year. They also share a similar weakness – walks. Gray has had a BB/9 rate of at least 4.0 his entire career. The last time he faced the Mets he only walked one batter. If both pitchers are on it tonight, the game could potentially fly by. If both pitchers are struggling with command we will see a memorable total of walks.
2. Trade block position players. The most likely position players to be traded on the Mets are Tommy Pham and Mark Canha. Tommy Pham finally started a game yesterday, although at DH, and went 0-for-4. Mark Canha went 1-for-2 with a walk. As we head towards next Tuesday’s trade deadline there will be a lot of analyzing every lineup that does or does not have either player.
3. David Robertson. David Robertson is the most likely reliever to be traded as he is the best true rental the Mets have to offer. In the last five days he has only pitched on Tuesday where he tossed seven pitches to secure two outs and record a hold against the Yankees.

Let’s Go Mets!